15-8 SHOT SHINES AS DAQMAN NAP: Oahu is a Hawaiian island. Yesterday it was an island in the sun for Daqman, as his winning nap at Newcastle last night. Oahu WON 15-8.
LOOKING FOR VALUE ON BETDAQ -2: ‘Only believe what you see,’ said Daqman yesterday, and that’s particularly true of novices over hurdles and fences. See below: Layers Love Novice Favourites
LAYERS LOVE NOVICE FAVOURITES
Henri The Second duly obliged yesterday. Not for backers but for layers! The Paul Nicholls odds-on shot was beaten at Chepstow, largely because of a mistake three out, leaving him with lost ground to make up.
Rule 1️⃣ for the Jumps (novices): you can’t bet on a novice who has not already jumped hurdles or fences in public. Even then, you risk an error from a fledgling jumper, even if he’s won before.
Paul Nicholls had won both divisions of Henri The Second’s race last year, both at odds on, with similar horses which had not jumped a twig on a racecourse but, like ‘Henri’, had won a bumper.
The odds-on payouts, had you been on, served only to pay your losses yesterday, with not a lot to spare. Margins are very small. At short odds, you ‘risk’ a mistake and Henri The Second made that mistake.
That’s why Daqman Fortune Cookies follow sequentially only horses who have proved themselves in the higher grades and, time after time, won’t let you down.
Rule 2️⃣: Novices got fit to make early gains on the track are not likely to be those a top stable is nursing toward better races later on.
Like precocious two-year-olds on the Flat, they are there to grab some early prizemoney, while the quality animals are matured slowly.
The winner yesterday, Chianti Classico, had more and better experience, as a Point scorer, and he ran on strongly to the line.
But, while both Chianti Classico and Henri The Second could both win again, they are not Fortune Cookies for progressive form in the future.
Rule 3️⃣: To be considered ‘one for the future’ a novice hurdler needs to do a good time. Both Nicholls winners last year and the one-two this, of Chianti Classico and Henri The Second, though racing on good to soft (not bad ground), all finished more than 20 seconds slow.
So did the winner of the second division yesterday, Makin’yourmindup, who had already raced over hurdles and easily beat yesterday’s favourite. Winning trainer and returned SP? Paul Nicholls at 11-2.
Rule 4️⃣: Doesn’t that just rub your nose in it if you backed Henri The Second earlier on! But Makin’yourmindup was much more what you are looking for: a top trainer who wins with precocious novices and has one easy to back, ‘the wrong price.’
Rule 5️⃣: All favourites in beginners’ races are suspect. A third novice race – a novice chase – was run immediately after those two novice hurdles yesterday. Again, the favourite ‘got stuffed’. That’s three losing favourites in a row: 10-11, 11-4 and 5-2. Where’s your sequence now!
BOUGHEY SPOTS OPENING FOR GEM
⭕ 2.10 Nottingham That time of year is gone when three-year-olds got such an advantageous allowance from older horses that they were almost always the backable ones.
Here’s a race which has a three-year-old as top-weight, giving weight to a largely-older field. Except two.
This race is open to two-year-olds, and a pair of kid handicappers, are both winners in their last two starts, one of them – The Thames Boatman – getting more than two stone from that top-weight. Just one two-year-old tried it last year and could finish only fourth.
But this race is a sprint and this is the year a two-year-old, The Platinum Queen, has won the biggest end-of-season sprint test, the Prix de l’Abbaye for the first time since 1978, after runner-up in the Nunthorpe to Highfield Princess, in the middle of her hat-trick which has taken that one her past the 120 ratings mark.
The Thames Boatman off 79 and the other two-year-old running this today, California Gem off 88, are a long way remote of such a mark but the top tends to carry the the lower ranks with them in a true trickle-down of merit.
California Gem goes up to 91 in future races, and George Boughey has had 40 juveniles win races this year so the man knows what he’s doing.
Boughey, who is currently boasting a general 28% strike rate, has a 60% record at Nottingham in handicaps.
California Gem is a CD winner at Nottingham on soft-ground and was second at Newmarket in a big-field auction race to a 93 rated (The Thames Boatman behind).
The Platinum Queen was winning off 93 and 98 in the summer before running second in the Nunthorpe.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 5.9 California Gem
DUKE CAN SET IT UP FOR METABOLT
⭕ 1.35 Nottingham Front-runner Harswell Duke is asked to complete the hat-trick under a penalty two days after scoring at Leicester.
Cisco Kid was second at Ayr and a winner at Pontefract, dropped 10lb from his June mark and down a grade into class 5. Now he’s raised to the kind of mark in a higher class which has previously produced 000 form-figures.
It’s an open door for Metabolt, recently a winner and second for switching stables and unlucky (hampered) in a big field at Chester when gambled down to 2-1 favourite in a field of 16 on his handicap debut. BETDAQ: 3.0 Metabolt
⭕ 4.45 Fakenham Al Zaraqaan, who ran in Group 2 and Group 3 on the Flat, returned to form over the sticks in the summer for trainer Archie Watson, who is 3-3 in handicap hurdles at Fakenham. BETDAQ: 2.84 Al Zaraqaan
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.35 Nottingham (win 10)
BET 5pts win METABOLT
2.10 Nottingham (win 20)
BET 4pts win CALIFORNIA GEM
4.45 Fakenham (win 10, nap)
BET 5.5pts win AL ZARAQAAN
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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