NEW READERS START HERE TO WIN: Today Daqman outlines the basics of his drive for winners, following his amazing results for the 2015 Flat season (see yesterday). It’s an easy guide to getting enough value to make a profit.
* GOLDEN RULES: What are the essential rules for betting to win?
* STAKING PLANS: Daqman adjusts his stakes, according to the quality of the racing.
TOMORROW: HORSES TO FOLLOW: Look out tomorrow for Daqman’s National Hunt horses to follow, starting on Friday and going through to his revised list, with ante-post bets, at the beginning of March, in time for the Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown festivals.
DAQMAN PLAN: GOLDEN RULES JUMPS 2015-16
BETDAQ VALUE: Serious punters and daily dabblers alike have a huge advantage on BETDAQ as they search for profit.
Profit is essentially tied to value, and value is explained by this golden rule: back only horses at the right price or better odds than they should be.
Try to price up a race before betting in it, so that you know what offers are acceptable to you. Look for tell-tale signs of a mistake.
HYPED HORSES: Fight shy of being a lemming. Don’t follow the hype. Sure, there are Frankels and Coneygrees but most hot horses are vulnerable to distance and conditions on the day, even Frankel; they didn’t dare run him in the Derby.
FALSE FAVOURITES: Tipsters can go on picking losers forever but newspaper headlines keep them in the public eye and keep their picks plummeting in the market.
MARKET INDICATORS: But don’t begrudge these ‘famous tipsters’ their headlines. Think of it this way: they are helping you by cramping the odds about a potential loser and improving the offers about the horse(s) you want to back!
PUNTER FRIENDLY: You are immediately ahead of the game on BETDAQ because, with no built-in take-out, as in the fixed-odds markets, a race of offers will add to up to a level playing-field, or nearly so.
Only on Monday, I noted in my column that the probabilities in the offers in the orange translated to percentages totalling only 105, 106 and 109% in three of the BETDAQ-sponsored races at Kempton Park.
I told you to ‘watch this space.’ And I can now report that the Total SPs were 114, 117 and 118%. Could have been more (up to 148 and 151% for two big races this year).
GET ON! Imagine the value, if you think you have found a false favourite – wrong trip, wrong ground, hyped too short – at 2-1 in a 105% orange.
It takes out 33% so your ‘level playing-field’ is suddenly 105-72 in your favour. You could actually bet the rest of the runners and make a profit (if, of course, you were right about that favourite).
TAKE A POSITION: The least you can do is take a position on one of the other horses made value by the false favourite.
However, be warned that the market may also indicate a loser. A ‘wrong price’ is good, but an offer that’s ‘too big’ suggests that a horse is not worth supporting that day.
You will see me say that it’s a lonely dog on a raft, drifted over my betting weir (past the stage where I think it is value and into the ‘too big’ category).
PUSH FOR A COMMISSION CUT: Bear all these factors in mind when you try for a commission cut. You can reduce commission to 2% by finding a winner for which you place an offer bigger than you see in the orange.
KEEP A RECORD: Above all keep a record of all your bets – not just the electronic one in the site on the day – so you can see whether there is a pattern in the way you bet successfully.
I mentioned a horse yesterday that I backed in 1988 to illustrate that, by keeping a note of the track and the trainer, and what persuaded me to back the horse, I could create a winning betting habit.
WINNING A RACE: Since the advent of BETDAQ, you are able to follow a race throughout the day and, instead of picking one horse to win it, you can start with a position and then see the race through to a profit by trading, laying, hedging, dutching… learn about all the ways to win, including manipulating the market yourself with the commission killer.
We’ll be talking about these ways in this column, as we go along. But, again, don’t forget to write down how you plotted, or record it in files and folders on your desktop, so that you can refer to ways you found of winning a race, so honing your skills.
SUCCESSFUL STAKING PLANS: JUMPS 2015-16
ANTE-POST: Bet ante-post only when you feel confident that you are getting a bigger price/offer than will be available on the day.
DAILY BETTING: Daqman bets are staked 1 to 9 (banker 10 points) on days of low-medium quality racing; what each unit or point represents is your decision. Maybe £1, maybe £5, maybe £50. The bigger your stake, the more you will have to allow for liquidity.
FIXED PROFIT: But be warned that I shall bet to a fixed-profit yield all day on the better days, maybe staking to win 20 or 30, even more.
BULL’S-EYE BETS: Any more than 30, and I usually bet to win 50, a bull’s-eye bet; and, occasionally, on big-field events, a ton-up bet may be staked to win 100.
BANKERS: Bankers will tend to follow the staking unit on the day, so only 10 or 20 points to win at an average meeting but rising to gold (30) or diamond (40) on major betting days.
PRICEWISE CHALLENGE: In races chosen by Pricewise of the Racing Post, I shall record his selections and mine, charging them to a fictitious account.
SETTLING: Since the bets are to BETDAQ morning prices, it stands to reason they should be returned as such (except bankers, where the stake is not related to the price; it’s max stakes whatever).
JOCKEY WHO LANDED MEGA-BUCKS FLUTTER
MY THANKS TO THE MAN: My personal record of early big bucks won in major gambles include Beldale Flutter (9-1 from 16-1; trainer M Jarvis); Pelerin (16-1; H. Wragg); Iyamski (15-2 from 12-1; W Hastings-Bass); Thornfield Boy (7-2 from 7-1; R Akehurst); Risen Moon (13-2 from 10-1, G. Wragg); Aventino (7-1 from 8-1, J Sutcliffe); Park Chief (7-2 from 11-2, F. Durr); Detroit (7-1, O. Douieb); Crossways (4-1, G. Wragg); Witchcraft (5-1, G. Wragg); and one of my ‘greatest hits’ of all time, Bosra Sham (10-11 from 9-1 ante-post, H. Cecil).
What do they have in common, and why mention them now? All were ridden in those winning races by Pat Eddery. Thanks a million, Pat (or at least, several thousand). Rest In Peace.
ON THE TRAIL OF VENETIA WILLIAMS’ WINNERS
2.00 Bangor No day of racing reminiscing is complete without mention of Arkle, and this race is named as a memorial to his owner, Anne Duchess Of Westminster.
She would never permit Arkle to run in the Grand National but eventually won it with Last Suspect, another big bet for me at 50-1.
This race throws up outsiders, with only one winning favourite in the decade, and three successes in the last five years for Venetia Williams.
HIDDEN HORSE: Her runner here, Dare Me, is a hidden horse in that he spent most of last season losing Graded chases (form figures at a lower level since the beginning of 2013 are 23210213).
Better than the bare form and unexposed at today’s trip: I shall charge Dare Me to the account at 12.5 (on BETDAQ as I write) but, by appearances, he will probably start bigger: the least I could do was pitch 13.5. Any takers?
It’s a good race, in which a more sensible bet is Shantou Magic, second run back for in-form Charlie Longsdon: 8.0 on BETDAQ.
3.10 Exeter It’s going to be a ploughing match up Haldon Hill in the mud today and a keen sort like Pull The Chord could be vulnerable in this hurdle prep before he goes steeplechasing.
Sirop De Menthe has won on heavy ground, has had his prep run (when the ground was against him) and is related to winners; gets 19lb from the favourite. I took 5.7.
3.40 Exeter Venetia Williams is in cracking form, including three chase wins in four days up to yesterday, and Otago Trail looked a chaser in the making last season.
On Tour was a marginally superior hurdler – rated 2lb better – but not all Evan Williams’ horses have been running well.
Heath Hunter is a horse with problems and Bredon Hill Lad squandered the money which made him joint favourite for his reappearance a week or so back.
4.10 Exeter At this time of year, you’re looking for younger horses, and five of this field going to be 10, 11 even 12 years old in a few weeks.
Buckhorn Tom stands out as a young pretender, who loves Exeter and soft ground. Sole market rival Ball Hopper was setting up tasty 4.0 offers about Buckthorn Tom.
We can assume that Tom is fit to win this for two reasons: firstly, his stable is in good form; secondly, as the runner-up last year, he has been aimed at this race, 5lb lower, allowing that the claimer is good for his 7lb.
DAQMAN BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength; 10 is a banker)
BET 4pts win SHANTOU MAGIC, and 2pts win and place DARE ME (2.00 Bangor)
BET 6pts win SIROP DE MENTHE (3.10 Exeter)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) OTAGO TRAIL (3.40 Exeter)
BET 6pts win BUCKTHORN TOM (4.10 Exeter)
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