SATURDAY BIG-RACE ABC GUIDE: Is the writing on the wall for the Cambridgeshire? Daqman’s ABC pick of Saturday’s runners has Banksea on top! He also has a promising nap at Goodwood and doubles it with an intrepid bet at Kempton park tonight.
SCOONES SCOOTS HOME AT 3-1: Yet again, the Daqman staking plan produced a profit on the day yesterday, thanks to Scoones (WON 3-1) at Lingfield.
STATS POINT TO CAMBRIDGESHIRE X1
3.35 Newmarket, Saturday (Cambridgeshire Handicap)
A Rated 99-104 (four out of five)
B Under the age of six (9 out of 10)
C Had run in the last nine weeks (9/11)
D Had already won at 1m 2f (11/15)
X Stable in form
Whereas the Cambridgeshire used to be won by something around the 90 mark, you now need a rating of just below, or even just above, 100, as established in the last four seasons of increased quality.
That’s why Daqman believes that somewhere among the short-list of those which fit these modern stats could be lurking Saturday’s big-race winner.
ABCDX Banksea
Better off at the weights with Brorocco, who won at Newbury on Saturday after Banksea was hampered and had to be switched. Beaten favourite last year but beat big field for the Newbury Spring Cup on a sound surface.
ABCDX Novoman
On a hat-trick mission at 1m 2f in this, after stepping up two grades to score at Goodwood. Another who needs the going on top.
ABCD Eddystone Rock
Unable to make any impression from the back, switched, in Newbury race won by Brorocco but had earlier taken 20-runner York handicap and 6lb better on July Meeting (fourth, hampered) with Thundering Blue.
Brorocco
Misses the cut and gets top weight for the Silver Cambridgeshire on Friday, but may yet get into the Cambridgeshire proper if there are defectors.
ABCX Bless Him
Britannia Stakes (1m) winner at Royal Ascot, staying on, and form disguised since by step up to Group 3.
ABCX Yattwee
Britannia fifth last season, very lightly raced since but two quick runs in September suggest he’s been prepping an autumn target like this one.
ABC Isomer
Beaten less than a length by Churchill in the Chesham as a two-year-old. Modest efforts this season raised to Group and Listed level. Also engaged at Haydock on Saturday, which gives the impression that he’s been brought back to form for the autumn.
ABC Kings Gift
Nearly horse at Group level: fourth in the Greenham, ninth in the French Guineas and at Royal Ascot, but twice placed in big-field handicaps at York over a mile, keeping on.
ABC Qassem
Ex Andre Fabre, gelded after moving to Newmarket. Three good efforts in handicaps, winning at Chelmsford, close up twice at York in big fields. Never out of the frame if you disregard longer trip and start of the year.
ABDX Linguistic
Very lightly raced, out of the frame only once when attempting Group-2 Royal Ascot Derby (King Edward V11 Stakes) last season. Beaten a neck over Easter in Listed Magnolia Stakes at Kempton after being gelded. Not seen since.
ABD Big Country
Rosebery Stakes winner at Kempton in April and scored again at York in June. Old Newton Cup gamble failed on fast ground over further, but improved again, second in the John Smith’s Cup at York.
ABX Very Talented
Big sort, not seen since third in this last year, winning the low-draw race (first of 17 in group). With the right yard for a comeback.
PROMISING NAP AT GOODWOOD
2.10 Goodwood Whatever wins this (1m 2f for two-year-olds) could be a useful stayer next season. Something like Setting Sail or Knightly Spirit, who got behind on this track over a mile but ran on well into third (Mt Augustus behind) and now steps up in trip.
Setting Sail, who has a Classic entry, is in an identical situation but is drawn widest of all and has less experience.
3.10 Goodwood Jeremy Noseda hasn’t had a winner recently and, to break the mould, Me Too Nagasaki has to give weight all round, stepped up in distance here.
But winner, third, fourth, seventh, eighth, ninth and the last of 11 from his June second at Sandown have all won since, two of them now rated 90 and 92.
Turnpike Trip, who attempts a hat-trick, has raced over further and is in receipt of 4lb, but the others look exposed
3.45 Goodwood Spark Plug won the Cambridgeshire at this time a year ago, has scored at Listed level since and was third in a Group 3 on the last day, but his form on a soft surface is 00002, and he was pulled out of the Rose Of Lancaster, won by front-running Frankuus.
It’s not too big a field for Frankuus (drawn 8) to get across and ‘do a Johnston’ again on the trainer’s favourite track, and Born To Be Alive climbed a stone in the ratings in August.
But Promising Run will surely be hard to beat at this level in a race her trainer has won seven times. She has won three Group races, two at Group 2, and escapes a penalty for the last one in Meydan.
Goes well fresh and swerves the Prix Royallieu at the Arc meeting for this, so presumably intended instead for the Fillies’ and Mares’ championship at Ascot in October.
4.20 Goodwood This is a rerun of another TBA Centenary Handicap on the July Course a month ago, when Fire Jet just outstayed Melinoe with Groovejet third and Notice fourth.
Fire Jet and Melinoe like to be handy – so, too, Star Guide – and the likely strong pace should set it up for St Mary’s on whom young William Cox has created a useful recent partnership, including success over 2m.
PLAY THIS RACE INTREPIDLY
8.40 Kempton A quality field for a race won three years out of four by one of the top weights but Intrepidly, Emenem and Alfarris have the highest draws today.
Intrepidly was tipped (nudge nudge, wink wink) as a Group horse in a handicap before making hard work of a Windsor win in July, and has been rested since.
But the runner-up, Anythingtoday, shot 17lb up the ratings and has key collateral form for the Cambridgeshire with Thundering Blue, Novoman and Brorocco.
Emenem was third at Goodwood to Novoman and Anythingtoday, and if you put the slide-rule on them, Emenem has 13lb to find with Intrepidly but receives only a pound this afternoon.
Alfarris won a Doncaster race back in August – he swaps blinkers for cheekpieces today – which has brought three subsequent successes for second and third.
But Alfarris had to dig deep at Donny and 5lb from Intrepidly doesn’t look enough. Total Star is part of Luca Cumani’s late flurry and cannot be discounted but Intrepidly should live up to the hype at last.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points at BETDAQ offers)
BET 4.75pts win KNIGHTLY SPIRIT (2.10 Goodwood)
BET 10pts win ME TOO NAGASAKI (3.10 Goodwood)
BET 5pts win (nap) PROMISING RUN (3.45 Goodwood)
BET 3.5pts win ST MARYS (4.20 Goodwood)
BET 5.5pts win INTREPIDLY (8.40 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win double PROMISING RUN (3.45 Goodwood) and INTREPIDLY (8.45 Kempton)
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