DAQMAN WINNERS ARE THE SPICE OF LIFE: Daqman doubled his money yesterday with two out of three, winning with Brutalab (WON 11-4) and Spice War (WON 11-10), following House Call (WON 13-2) on Monday. Today he looks at the Goodwood card.
THE CAMBRIDGESHIRE? IT’S EASY AS ABCD: First he applied the four strongest stats as an ABCD guide to the Cambridgeshire field and found seven horses with 100%. Some lower down the handicap could run a day earlier in Friday’s Silver Cambridgeshire, so none have been rejected.
SEVEN-UP CAMBRIDGESHIRE CRACKERS
Lucky seven? Daqman checked out four form factors (ABCD) from the stats of previous winners of the Cambridgeshire and found seven probables for Saturday that fit all four:
A: Horses aged three and four have won 28 out of 38
B: Of those, 33 finished in the frame in their prep race.
C: They carried 9st 6lb or less (35 out of 38)
D: Yet 12 of the last 15 winners were rated 94 to 104
1 LE DON DE VIE Three wins out of four, two for Andrew Balding but, after moving to Hughie Morrison, was fourth over further at Goodwood before taking the small-field Ladbrokes Handicap there cosily.
2 GOOD BIRTHDAY Laid back sort who’s won in a big field. Improved 16lb this season. Third in the London Gold Cup and won the Beverley Silver Cup.
3 DESERT ICON Level weights when beaten half a length by Good Birthday in the Beverley Silver Cup over today’s trip. Gets 2lb concession.
4 LORD NORTH Just four races in his life and not yet been seen at this trip; well outpointed over a mile at Ascot on the last day but may not yet seen the best of him, though clearly hard to keep in training.
5 STAR OF SOUTHWOLD Steady improvement: 12lb higher after 10 runs this year, rising in grade and versatile as to trip (currently 3-5, two at 1m and one over 1m 2f).
6 BALTIC BARON A bridesmaid with form figures of 223424220 and, officially, gelding has improved him only a pound (2003). Fifth in the Goodwood Golden Mile.
7 BEDOUINS STORY All four successes have come over 7f. Would improve for soft ground but that might be a barrier against getting the trip.
MUTAABEQ GETS A TRIPLE BONUS
2.30 Goodwood Three of Tukhoom’s five wins from 31 starts have come in the last six weeks, but pushing up his rating by only 4lb.
So, when you read that he’s well in here because an adjustment for scoring in a Sandown claimer does not apply, you have to appreciate that he’s been hovering around his current mark since May, 2017.
He is not well drawn here in 10. That also applies to Love Dreams (out of 11) and Glen Shiel (12). Alemaratalyoum has had two races in six days, including third at Chelmsford last night.
Mutaabeq looked like the winner at this trip on the last day. Dropping back to a mile on a track that will suit from gate 3 looks a triple bonus but will he act on the ground?
Key Player has scored on turf at switchback tracks (Brighton, Epsom) but will he perform as well going right-handed? At 8.8 in the BETDAQ market, I could afford to take a chance on Mutaabeq (2.68 a place to cover)
9.6 NYALETI: LET ME GET AT IT..
3.40 Goodwood Qarasu won on soft at Newbury and his rating has been raised 11lb. He is moving up two or three grades to a Listed race but there’s always a lot of confidence behind him (favourite now in four consecutive races).
Illumined has won in class 2 on the soft and has scored over further (1m 4f) so conditions hold no worries, though perhaps Nyaleti does.
She’s spent 12 of her last 15 starts in Group 1 or 2, including fourth in the Lancashire Oaks and sixth in the Nassau Stakes, coming within a neck of Group-1 success in Italy on heavy.
Before that, in May 2018, she won a Listed here over a mile on softish ground. She was favourite that day for only the third time in her life (form in those races 121) and her form with cut in the ground before her Pattern career was 1321.
At 9.6, with eight runners this morning, I grabbed the mouse and dived on the orange, only to find two ‘nonners’ spoiling my enthusiasm. But, BETDAQ to the rescue, there were 2.42 place offers. I was happy with that as a stakes saver.
LITIGIOUS IS THE TOPICAL TIP
4.10 Goodwood The three previous winners of this were sent out by stables who are all represented today: Roger Varian (Specialise), Mark Johnston (I’ll Have Another) and William Haggas (Monica Sheriff).
I’ll Have Another has won at this trip and been placed with cut in the ground.
There may be a clue from Illumined in the previous race: she beat Specialise at Haydock, though that was half a mile shorter, and Specialise should go well for the extra distance.
Differing ground hasn’t stopped Monica Sheriff but this is another two furlongs and two grades higher than for her winning handicap debut at Newcastle.
They all have to beat Litigious (BETDAQ 3.55 taken), a Lawman filly out of a Galileo mare, who looks poised for a step up here after just four runs. The topical tip in Downing Street today.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.30 Goodwood ( win 20, place to cover)
BET 2.5pts win and 1.5pts place MUTAABEQ
3.40 Goodwood (win 20, place to cover )
BET 2.25pts win and 1.5pts place NYALETI
4.10 Goodwood (win 20)
BET 8pts win (nap) LITIGIOUS
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