BETDAQ 26.0 KERRY NATIONAL BET FOR GOLDEN-BOY DAQMAN: Daqman tries two 25-1 shots today after landing his nap with Golden War (WON 5-4) at Beverley yesterday. He goes to war on the Cambridgeshire with an early-bird bet, intending a BETDAQ bull’s-eye strike when the draw is known. At Listowel, he reckons Gordon Elliott will get back into the big time with a Kerry National winner.
TOMORROW: Don’t miss the start of the Newmarket Cambridgeshire four-day meeting.
I’LL RAISE IF I GET A GOOD DRAW
⚠️ HEADS UP You need to grab a market position on the Cambridgeshire as soon as the draw is announced. Trends are not foolproof but, if there ever was a race for them, it’s Saturday’s big-field handicap. Here’s why:
⭕ 2.30 Newmarket, Saturday (Cambridgeshire Handicap) STATS: Trainers (20 years): John Gosden 4, Marcus Tregoning 2. Jockeys: Frankie Dettori 2.
Some 15 winners in 21 years had previously won a race over 1m 2f. John Gosden has won it twice in the last three years.
Winner by stall: Remarkably, seven of the last 10 winners were drawn from 21 to 31. There were two great moments in the 2018 race BEFORE the event when John Gosden’s Wissahickon, the Fortune Cookie I pitched ante-post at 20-1 a week earlier, came out top of my preview when 16-1 and was given stall 21. I doubled my stake. He won at 11-1.
In the last five years, the first four by stall have been 28-25-8-13, 29-22-13-10, 21-25-26-3, 29-15-32-28, 25-27-24-16. So 12 out of 15 in the first three wwe from 21 to 32.
Age: No horse older than six has won this century; the first three by age in the last five seasons were 5-4-3, 4-5-4, 3-4-6, 3-4-3, 4-3-4, so 12 out of 15 placed were aged three and four.
Rating: Increased quality high in the handicap means that 11 of the 15 placed in the last five seasons were from the ratings band 96 to 105
Form I’ve trawled through the top 35, trying to spot another Wissahickon – fingers crossed for the draw – and come up with a top six of Anmaat, Ascension, Astro King, Magical Morning, Raise You, Uncle Bryn.
Though unexposed, Uncle Bryn’s claims for Team Gosden are well touted, but Magical Morning is their ‘hidden horse’, with most of his form is at a mile, including trying to give 9lb to the winner when beaten a head in a £51,000 handicap at the York Ebor meeting.
So why ‘hidden’? He’s bred for the Cambridgeshire trip and more. His dam, third in the Oaks, is sister to Wings Of Desire (1m 2f) and Eagle Top (1m 4f) and half-sister to an Oaks winner. Needs the ground to dry out.
Ascension and course-winner Raise You also have untapped potential beyond a mile and wouldn’t mind the midweek rain leaving behind some give in the ground
Verdict: For a Wissahickon-type bet, anticipating the draw, I went for a 25-1 chance in Raise You, who was put away for this since failing to get a clear run, fifth of 17 in the BMW Mile at the Galway Festival.
Value on the day: BETDAQ offers on the Wissahickon race settled down to 113% during the Saturday morning, but the Total SP with bookies was 144%, and has peaked in the decade at 151%. So save your big bet for BETDAQ.
26.0! THROUGH A LENSE DARKLY…
⭕ 4.25 Listowel (Kerry National) Gordon Elliott could get back in the big time with a strike in this 88,500-euro three-miler, for which he gives himself four chances.
Three winners of this in the last six seasons – Rogue Angel (2015), Snow Falcon (2018) and Cabaret Queen (2020) – had all been placed in the first four in a major handicap at the Galway Festival. Two others had also run well at Ballybrit.
Of today’s field, Elliott’s five-year-old Aramax was third in the Galway Blazers (hampered two out), giving the winner, Born By The Sea, more than a stone.
It’s a young age to be winning this but he’s scored before after a break and is clearly on the upgrade. Can he stay the extra distance?
The same question-mark applies to Elliott’s hooded seven-year-old Conflated, who was a classy youngster and had a prep on the Flat recently for this.
Fifth in the Galway Plate, Darasso (Joseph O’Brien) is the right age and earlier beat Born By The Sea here at Listowel but over shorter.
Like Aramax, Darasso is owned J P McManus, who has seven runners all told, including 11-year-old Modus, third in the Plate, though badly hampered at the second last. Assemble and Royal Rendezvous were well beaten that day (Top Moon 12th, Annamix pulled up).
My pick of the outsiders is The Big Lense (McManus and Elliott again) who improved on his fifth in the 2020 Midlands National to go on and win that race at Kilbeggan this year under Jody McGarvey before dropping back in trip for the Galway Blazers (sixth).
The Big Lense had beaten the subsequent Kerry National winner Cabaret Queen when they met at this meeting two years ago. A dark-horse price but every chance on form if his jumping holds up.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 11.0 Aramax, 26.0 The Big Lense
FRANKIE NAPPED AT BETDAQ 6.6.
⭕ 2.52 Goodwood The hat-trick seeker, Migration, is up 11lb and Frankie Dettori is here for the one ride against him on Harrovian.
Team Gosden know all about Perotto, Solid Stone and King Vega. They’ve already beaten them with Megallan in a race at Salisbury, which reveals Solid Stone (roughly ‘the same horse’ as Harrovian at Windsor) as around 5lb better than Perotto.
That makes it very close at today’s weights and all down to tactics. At Harrovian’s 6.6 on BETDAQ I am relying on Frankie for that.
⭕ 4.02 Goodwood Another favourite who might be coming to the end of his tether, raised in trip after three wins in a row, is Curtiz.
Including Curtiz, nine of the runners are very well exposed with six or more starts this season, none of them winners last time out. But course-winner Creoseo Cymraeg (BETDAQ 5.5. taken) has had just three runs, acey-deucey with form figures of 212 in the summer.
Impressive when he won at Leicester, he’s back after a break, returning to that winning trip but has scored over a furlong further on today’s course a year ago. The handicapper says he’s 20lb better with age.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.52 Goodwood (win 20 nap)
BET 3.5pts win HARROVIAN
4.02 Goodwood (win 20)
BET 4.5pts win CROESO CYMRAEG
4.25 Listowel (win 50 bull’s-eye bets, win 10 a place)
BET 5pts win ARAMAX
BET 2pts win and 3pts place THE BIG LENSE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
