GRAND NATIONAL ABC GUIDE: Which Grand National runners have the stats on their side; the age, the weight, the stamina from key races?
TOMORROW: The opening day at Aintree
DAQMAN’S GRAND NATIONAL ABC
⭕ 5.15 Aintree, Saturday (Grand National)
A Winner or placed over 3m+ in quality staying chase (94%)
B Carrying 10st 3lb to 11st 6lb (10-12)
C Aged eight and nine (6-7)
D Last ran no more than 35 days ago (78%)
E Won or ran well in a race named ‘National’ or key race (60%)
F Trainer who does well in Nationals
G Has jumped the National fences
H Never fallen
LIFETIME AMBITION (ABCDEGH)
More than six lengths off Capodanno in the 2022 Punchestown Champion Novice; later that year, fourth over the National fences in the Grand Sefton; second to The Big Dog in the Troytown; third in the John Durkan to subsequent Gold Cup winner, Galopin des Champs.
CORACH RAMBLER (ABCDEH)
The handicapper says he’s improved a stone since fourth in his first marathon, last year’s 3m 5f Warwick Classic, prelude to his Ultima win at Cheltenham and fourth in the Newbury Gold Cup. He won the Ultima again in March after 108 days break but still gets in here off 10st 5lb.
LONGHOUSE POET (ABCDEH)
The 2022 Thyestes winner was then sixth in last year’s Grand National (off 155). Mainly hurdling since but only narrowly beat Roi Mage and Burrows Saint over the Down Royal fences (3m 2f) after the runner-up, giving him 5lb, was hampered.
AIN’T THAT A SHAME (ABCDEH)
Took on the star names as a novice but best runs last year when beaten a head by The Big Dog in the Munster National (3m soft) and fourth in the big Christmas chase at Leopardstown. Still qualified to win a beginners’ chase the last day.
MINELLA TRUMP (ABCDFH)
Won eight chases out of nine, mainly on good ground between August 2021 and June last year. Had a run back over hurdles. The McCain stable, father and son, has won the race with Red Rum (hat-trick in the 1970s), Amberleigh House (2004) and Ballabriggs (2011).
DIOL KER (ABCE)
Fourth in the 2022 Thyestes before winning the Leinster National at Naas (heavy) last March, ran second in the big-field Grade B chase of the Christmas meeting at Leopardstown.
DELTA WORK (ABDEFGH)
Irish Gold Cup winner of 2020, back to form following the stable’s Tiger Roll route to Aintree, winning the 2022 cross-country at Cheltenham and third in the Grand National behind Noble Yeats and Any Second Now. Won the same cross-country last month.
CLOUDY GLEN (ABDEF)
Kim Muir runner-up (2021) before winning the Ladbrokes Trophy – the old Hennessy Gold Cup – at Newbury. Quiet after, until good third in Haydock Park Grand National Trial but pulled up behind Corach Rambler at Cheltenham, and is 3lb out of the handicap.
GAILLARD DU MESNIL (ABDEH)
Steadily progressive novice, still only seven. In his only all-aged handicap chase, 2022 Irish Grand National third and, when put back to long distance, won the NH Challenge Cup (3m 6f) at Cheltenham last month. B
ROI MAGE (ABD)
Aged 11; won or placed 23 chases. Beaten only a length and a quarter by Longhouse Poet, giving him 10lb, over 3m 2f at Down Royal a couple of weeks back, with well-beaten third Burrows Saint, the 2019 Irish Grand National winner (fourth at Aintree in 2021).
Roi Mage’s connections, who won the 2013 Grand National with 11-year-old Auroras Encore, have chosen French-based jockey Felix De Giles to replace the injured James Reveley, because he’s completed the Grand national course before.
CAPODANNO (ABH)
Winner at the last two Punchestown festivals (Champion Novice last April), with in-between second there to Bob Olinger and fourth in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham to L’Homme Presse.
NOBLE YEATS (ACDEGH)
Slammed 20 lengths by Corach Rambler at Cheltenham 2022 but went on to win the Grand National. He’s 20lb higher now but scored twice in the autumn and ran fourth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
OUR POWER (ACE)
Just two runs this season after 5th in the Ultima at Cheltenham last March behind Corach Rambler. Won both the London Gold Cup and the Kempton Trophy (only third in that the year before) with long breaks between. Like Corach Rambler, he is better off (6lb) on future ratings.
MR INCREDIBLE (ABD)
Lightly-raced seven-year-old improved for long trips when runner-up in the Warwick Classic (heavy) in January and third in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham.
ANY SECOND NOW (ADEFG)
Won the 2019 Kim Muir and placed in two Grand Nationals: third in 2021 off 152 and second last year off 159. Back to form in March, winning his second Webster Cup on heavy at Navan (rated 160) but 11 years old now.
LE MILOS (ABCEH)
Four wins out of six, improving 22lb, and winning the Newbury Gold Cup, the old Hennessy in November, which was often a National stepping-stone.
VANILLIER (ABCE)
In-and-out performer, won the Albert Bartlett (2021) and then the Florida Pearl novice chase later that year, but place form only on big-race scene after. Fell, first-time cheekpieces, in the Leopardstown Chase in February but close second later that month in the Bobbyjo.
THE BIG DOG (ABE)
Munster National and Troytown double, followed by Welsh National third off 12st., has pushed his rating up to 160 but fell the last day in the Irish Gold Cup; led three out; fell two out.
COKO BEACH (ABCEFG)
6th (Porterhouse) and 7th (2021 Irish Grand National before 8th in last year’s Aintree National: led from fourth, headed before two out; lost shoe.
GALVIN (ACDEF)
Strong campaigner, particularly at Cheltenham: winner and second in novices chases there then, after a long break, won the 3m 6f NH Chase (2021); 4th 2022 Gold Cup; runner-up to Delta Work in last month’s cross-country at the festival, also 3m 6f. Won on most surfaces except heavy.
Daqman so far: 20pts win CAPODANNO at BETDAQ 27.0.
FLIGHT TAKES OFF AGAIN
⭕ 3.55 Nottingham (Barry Hills Further Flight, Listed) today A watching race given the likely prohibitive price of Alan King’s star stayer Trueshan but without doubt the headline act on today’s card.
The seven-year-old was a 4/9 shot when winning this last year before his high profile wins in the Northumberland Plate and at Champions Day and he once again gets the testing ground he demands!
MAYBE MABRE?
⭕ 4.55 Nottingham Mabre might add to the good recent run of form for trainer David Evans.
The grey was beaten into third in a higher grade race on the all-weather at Lingfield last time out where he looked an unlucky loser. He’ll handle the soft ground better than others as he has winning form on today’s conditions.
There are question marks over quite a few of the shorter priced runners on the Betdaq Betting Exchange.
Nine Elms generally prefers quicker ground whilst Eleven Eleven brings good all-weather form to the table but is making his turf debut after 13 AW races.
Distinction would have a huge chance if on his best form but it’s also a huge if. He’s been off the course for 162 days and his form tailed off alarmingly when last seen.
QUANTICO LOOKS QUALITY
⭕ 6.30 Kempton Looks the race of the night and better than the official class 5 grade.
It brings together three unbeaten runners in Yaanaas (Roger Varian), Orzo (Andrew Balding) and Quantico (Archie Watson).
Orzo looked mighty impressive when winning by five lengths on debut here but has had problems since hence the 539 day absence.
What worries me more than the time off is the fact the form of the race he won has fallen apart and it might just be he stood out in a very moderate event.
The likely favourite is Yaanaas who scored in some style on debut at Newcastle. Watching the race again this morning it was clear that he was value for much more than the length winning margin and should come on bundles.
However I’ll take a chance with Quantico who has both his races in some style and might should be capable of shrugging off the double penalty. The winning time of his Newcastle race was far quicker than that of Yaanaas at the same track and the Archie Watson yard are in good form (7 winners from last 27).
JUDGE GETS HAT-TRICK VERDICT
⭕ 7.00 Kempton High Court Judge can rattle up the hat-trick for his new yard.
Up 3lb for a course and distance narrow success last time out the handicapper probably thinks he’s stopped him but I fancy he still had a bit up his sleeve and would have won further but for meeting some trouble in getting through.
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.55 Nottingham (win 10)
BET 3pts win MABRE
6.30 Kempton (win 10, nap)
BET 3.3pts win QUANTICO
7.00 Kempton (win 10)
BET 2.1pts win HIGH COURT JUDGE
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