17 DAQMAN NAPS WIN IN JANUARY: Daqman doubled his banker stakes on the last day of the month to 20 points win Un Prophete (WON 1-1) yesterday, despite a low-key day of 1-to-9-points basic betting. It was his 17th winning nap in January for a 55% strike rate (see Monday’s column for the first 16 on the list).
SEVEN BANKERS UP OUT OF TEN: Daqman started yesterday by opposing his own 6-4 on Fortune Cookie, Its’Afreebie, and backing Pearl Swan (WON 15-8), who scored by 33 lengths. Then came his seventh winning banker from 10 in the month, showing a sequence of 1211133111 (see below).
KEY RACE FOR CHELTENHAM: Today Daqman checks out the JLT Chase at Cheltenham and fancies a Saturday race will point up the winner. He naps at Hereford, where he rates old-timer Mountainous at the weights.
BANKERS ARE BETTER ON BETDAQ
Bank On Betdaq! In Daqman’s seven winning bankers out of 10 in January – including a double hat-trick – six were showing odds against on BETDAQ on the morning of the race, making a huge difference to the profits.
WON 5-6 (banker) O O Seven
2nd 4-11 (banker) Crack Mome
WON 1-1 (banker) Two Smokin Barrels
WON 4-6 (banker) Westerner Lady
WON 1-5 (banker) Yorkhill
3rd 11-10 banker) Clondaw Warrior
3rd 11-10 (banker) Dolos
WON 1-2 (banker) Un De Sceaux
WON 8-11 (banker) Lets Dance
WON 1-1 (banker) Un Prophete
SCILLY SEASON FOR CHELTENHAM
The champion choice has a knock-on effect. Buveur d’Air’s switch back from chasing to the Champion Hurdle transforms the JLT Chase market for the Cheltenham Festival, in which he was one of the favourites.
But it also leaves his Nicky Henderson stablemate, Top Notch, with a free run on Saturday, which would decide his choice: Arkle or JLT.
Free run? We’re talking about Sandown’s Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase, which Buveur d’Air wil not now contest. But one man would disagree with my verdict: Paul Nicholls has to decide today from four contenders.
He will choose from Le Prezien (51 days absence), Frodon (40) or Clan des Obeaux (34) – all arguably needing a race – to see if anything can better his current JLT short shot, Politologue, who ran only a fortnight ago and got beat, so that the Ditcheat camp is still posed a question.
Arkle offers on BETDAQ for Le Prezien (66.0) and Politologue (122.0) suggest they are JLT at best but overturning Top Notch would be a direction finder.
The BETDAQ orange on the JLT before the Buveur d’Air switch had 10.5 Politologue, 18.5 Clan Des Obeaux, 24.0 Frodon and 21.0 Le Prezien, with the one that beat Politologue on the last day, Waiting Patiently, a 23.0 offer. Top Notch was 19.5.
Only one winner of the JLT had needed to run again between today’s date and the big meeting, and there was only one winner outside the leading eight in the market as it stood at this time. But it could be the Scilly season this year.
BROTHER! HE HAS HIDDEN STAMINA
3.00 Hereford Looks tough picking from a bunch of novices all rated between 125 and 132 – not much in it, then – but there’s a hidden horse here.
How can you call the hat-trick seeker Colin’s Brother a hidden horse, Daqman? Well, he’s not only unexposed, as most are here, as novice chasers.
But he’s been running over a trip far short of his best, if his breeding is any guide, and it’s a routine ploy of trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies, to allow his potential stayers to let off steam and learn to jump at the speed level of shorter races.
There’s a bank of stamina in the blood on the dam’s side, and this 4.3 BETDAQ offer’s step up from 2m chases is hardly unexpected, since he’s already won a near-20f hurdle on heavy ground.
3.10 Leicester Another hidden horse is Allee Bleue (4.6 on BETDAQ) in this one. Three wins from four starts last year, he hasn’t had his ground since.
He may look ‘tonked’ by the handicapper with top weight of 11st 12lb., but his 125 rating is a significant drop in quality, down 10lb since he ran at a higher level at the Aintree festival only three starts back.
MOUNTAINOUS WEIGHTS CHANCE
3.30 Hereford Plenty of stamina to be found in this one: Welsh National winner, Mountainous; Midlands National winner, Firebird Flyer; Warwick Classic runner-up, Goodtoknow.
There’s just 7lb between the top weight and Mountainous. Nine pins you won’t skittle easily. All bar on Belmount has scored already on heavy ground so that seemingly won’t be divisive.
Racing Pulse, Federici, Flashjack, Streets Of Prromise and Waldorf Salad have never won this far, which may be helpful. With P-PP form, Aachen is likely to park well before the end of this journey, too.
This is a drop in class for Goodtoknow, who scored back to back when he was racing in this grade last Spring, and he comes here after his fine run in the Classic.
Forget Firebird Flyer’s failure to complete at Haydock. He’s done it there before and bounced right back again.
But both Goodtoknow and Firebird Flyer are pointers to Mountainous, who looked much more like his old self when seventh in the Warwick event.
If you include his amateur rider’s 7lb claim, Mountainous is 13lb better with Firebird Flyer, though he was the winner over Flyer last January when they finished one-two. And he’s 12lb better with Goodtoknow, who is favourite today with Mountainous 9.8.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BACK 7pts win (nap) COLIN’S BROTHER (3.00 Hereford)
BACK 6pts win ALLEE BLEUE (3.10 Leicester)
BACK 6pts win GOODTOKNOW, and 2.5pts win and place MOUNTAINOUS (3.30 Hereford)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
