TWO OUT OF THREE INCLUDES THE NAP: Daqman bounced straight back from a Monday dip with a profit of 16.30 yesterday from two out of three, including his fourth nap out of seven. That’s 12 winners in eight days.
WON 4-1 ABNAA (from BETDAQ 6.2)
WON 7-4 DILIGENT STREET (nap)
FOLLOW THE GOLDEN RULES: Today Daqman admonishes himself for straying away from his own Golden Rules; look for quality and value on BETDAQ.
STEER DOWN QUALITY STREET
I’m slapping my own wrist. It’s essential to be self-critical when you disobey the Golden Rules of picking horses.
The basic one is this: class will out and only quality has any consistency, so don’t expect low-level animals (class 5 and 6) to repeat recent winning form any time soon.
If it does happen, by clever placing against no-no animals, and a horse appears to be on a roll, so much the better because he is almost certain to go over the top.
I’d go so far as to say your best bet in the race is something not ‘in form’, but preferably coming back to the table with some ‘old form’ before nosediving in the handicap.
My slap on the wrist is because I’d had a good weekend and continued staking as if animals are machines and my reading of the form was a mechanical guide to success at any level.
Be warned: racecourses, too, are classified. So often it happens that a class 3 or 4 race at a country track is off sync in terms of quality; and there are several class-2 contests around which earned such a label purely on prizemoney.
Another golden rule, don’t presume to choose to make a single selection from a stable which has more than one runner.
Picking winners is made harder because the likes of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott may have multiple runners, some with seemingly equal potential.
My Fortune Cookies yesterday discussed the success of El Fabiolo (Mullins) when he won the Irish Arkle as the apparent third string behind Appreciate It and Dysart Dynamo.
One of my bets in the big hurdle at Newbury on Saturday was Highway One O Two, trained by Chris Gordon. A drifter to 14-1.
The Gordon ‘second string’, Aucunrisque made all the running, backed in to 9-1, and the trainer said after the race: ‘I thought the other one would win.’
Whether that was tongue in cheek or not, the message is clear. You should always have a saver on a second string. Ironically, Aucunrisque (‘no risk’) was your biggest risk.
THE MASKED WINNER
⭕ 3.35 Hereford Masked Matgil has to lump top weight of 12 stone around here but she might well confirm she’s the class act in a very modest race.
Certainly the current form of her trainer Tom Lacey is a positive. Three winners from his last nine runners including a further four podium finishes.
Masked Matgil is relatively lightly raced which I take as another positive in this race given she is up against some throughly exposed rivals.
She also ran well on good ground on her bumper debut at Newton Abbot.
The harder-to-quantify factors include the trip. We have to take an educated guess that the significant hike in distance will suit.
Although fifth at Exeter last time out behind the odds on Bonttay she was beaten less than 10 lengths and was plugging on in the good to soft ground. The faster ground and easier track here should help mitigate the step-up from 2 miles to 2 miles 5 furlongs.
Whilst a slight drifter this morning on Betdaq Betting Exchange I don’t really see that as a negative beyond her price correcting from what looked far too cagey opening offers. It is a handicap after all.
Chief market rival is Maid Of The Night who is up in trip which should also suit her being a previous point winner. It’s just impossible to be confident about her chances given she’s been beaten 52, 44 and 42 lengths in her last three starts. A consistent beaten distance if nothing else !
THE X FACTOR
⭕ 3.50 Wetherby There’s a shortage of runners in North Yorkshire at the moment. After TWO match races at Catterick on Monday there’s another head to head in the opener at Wetherby today.
Xcitations can get back on the winning run in this class 3 handicap. He disappointed at Doncaster last time but was subsequently found to be slightly lame.
Hopefully now fully recovered he can resume winning ways at this lower class 3 level. He’s a classy individual as he showed at Sandown last month (class 2) when travelling well and winning by nine lengths under today’s pilot Jack Andrews.
Rose Sea Has is the model of consistency but a 3lb rise for finishing second (again) looks mean from the handicapper.
LOOKS WRITE FOR TOLSTOY
⭕ 8.00 Kempton Modest Wednesday night fare from Kempton the exception being this class 3 handicap.
Tyger Bay was beaten favourite at Lingfield last time out and had excuses but this is a tougher level.
The expected favourite Spirit Of Nguru bids to make it four winners in a row for William Haggas but it remains to be seen whether the drop back to six furlongs for the first time in his career and first time headgear prove positives.
Tolstoy is going the other way in distance (from 5 to 6) but there were signs at Southwell last time out that he was running back into form.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.35 Hereford (win 10, nap)
BET 5.2pts win MASKED MATGIL
3.50 Wetherby (win 10)
BET 3.9pts win XCITATIONS
8.00 Kempton (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win TOLSTOY
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
