SEVEN PILLARS OF WISDOM FOR THE FLAT: Daqman has tipped 40 feature race winners in his challenge to Pricewise (he’s had 12). How does he do it? Today he reveals seven simple secrets in advance of the Flat season in England, which starts on Saturday.
TOMORROW: KEEP YOUR DAQ UP THROUGH THE DAY: The smart punter bets on a race not on a horse, because – with BETDAQ – you can follow a value market right through the day and through the race, take positions and trade to bring you out on top.
REMEMBER THE GOLDEN RULE: THE MAN WHO STANDS ALONE GETS THE BEST PRICE
Age: Obviously two-year-olds are an unknown quantity but most injurious to the wallet are three-year-old handicaps. Beware of them until the form has settled down around Derby time.
Remember the golden rule for three-year-old Classic trials: last year’s form is last year’s form; this year’s form is this. Some horses will have matured and developed, some will have ‘stood still’, and others ‘not grown’ or even gone backwards.
In all-aged races, you’re looking for improvement from the four-year-olds and possibly those aged five. Older than that and a horse’s form plateaus out or deteriorates, except for sprinters; they are a different breed and go on winning up to double-figure age.
Weight: At age three and four, improvers can climb the ratings and resist the attentions of the handicapper but older horses should only be backed close to their previous winning rating.
The rating determines the weight carried but remember that the races are graded, so a high rating and big weight in a class 4 could be a moderate rating and a much lower weight in a class 2.
Stats: Whatever some of the so-called experts tell you, stats are vitally important. When you ask what kind of horse in what circumstances usually wins the race, it’s obvious that patterns are important.
Trainers are creatures of habit: follow their winning patterns (they do it themselves!). The draw is often vital in determining the outcome of a race; swat up on it.
Don’t believe what others say, and use their hype to your advantage. Remember, the man who stands alone gets the best prices.
Fitness: As a general rule, a handicapper should be left alone for two races before you can be sure he is race fit. But there are other factors (see Freshness below).
In assessing a horse, be sure to consider the conditions: is it the right trip on the right going? That also applies to hindsight: check before writing a horse off: defeat may have been occasioned by the wrong conditions and the run can be ignored.
Freshness: There are three types of animals that win first time. The horse that goes well fresh; the horse from a stable that gets them ready at home; and – of vital importance in the Spring – the horse that’s ready early because later on he is sure to be beaten when everything else is fit.
He must, must, must be ‘got up’ for a sneak success, when he alone has an edge on him. What other chance has he got? You know he’ll be overwhelmed when the better horses are fit.
By the way, when he’s won his race, cross him off your list, even if he looked good winning it. As we surmised, he was probably going to score by default.
Hoofnote: A horse that does best after a break, and ‘goes well fresh’, is not to be confused with a horse that ‘ran fresh’, which basically means he was too keen and excited for his own good first run back.
He expended his nervous energy before it was needed for the finish. At the start of the season such a horse will need a run to ‘take the freshness out of him.’
False favourites: Punters memories are fuelled by hype, and they will go on backing certain horses race after race, as if their very name is magic.
But such animals are very often among the false favourites, and you must learn to love them for this very different reason: taken out of the total percentage in the orange, they could leave you able to back everything else in the race and show a profit.
Lays: Of course, the short cut to a profit on a false favourite is to lay him. But be warned that, unless the lay is part of your positioning on a particular race, you must assess the longer-term outcome before opposing horses with hard cash in a sequence of lays.
Even sticking to favourites (or nearly so), I’ve ascertained in this column that I need to aim at around a 72% strike rate to give myself a decent return over a period of time.
TODAY’S BETDAQ RACING AT KEMPTON: DASH CAN LAND THE NAP
There’s a quartet of BETDAQ sponsored races at Kempton tonight.
6:30 Betdaq Free 25 No Lose Bet Fillies’ Handicap (4yo+, Class 5, 1m 2f, 7 runners)
I’m sweet on the chances of the Giles Bravery trained Puzzle Time who despite having the least experience in this fillies handicap, also has by far the most potential. She’s got a very odd profile. She started her racing career in bumpers last year and won a 1m 6f event at Warwick in November where she made most of the running. She has been running lately on the all-weather and was a winner over 1m 4f at Wolverhampton last time out under today’s pilot William Carson. It’s a wide open market on BETDAQ (4.1 the field at the time of writing) despite there only being seven runners – very much, again, a theme of the day – at Southwell there is an average of just six runners per race today.
7:00 Betdaq 500 In Free Bets Handicap (4yo+, Class 6, 1m 4f, 7 runners)
Interesting to see some early money flying around for Gravitate who has started at big odds in all his recent races including last time out here when 6th over the 1m 2f trip. He was staying on that day and should be suited by the longer trip tonight. Able Dash though looks the one. He won over course and distance last time out at 11/1 in a race that looked more competitive than tonights. The third placed runner gave the form a solid boost with a subsequent six length success.
8:00 Betdaq No Premium Charge Handicap (4yo+, Class 4, 7f, 7 runners)
Athletic won well here last time out but it came in a grade lower and he may find life tougher in this company. The Mark Johnston trained Spin Artist looks a classic win, with place lay insurance proposition. He’s a horse that either runs very well or very badly and that gives us an angle in on BETDAQ. We can back Spin Artist at 5.3 on the BETDAQ win market but also lay him at 2.6 on the place market to cover stakes. There’s only two places up for grabs and the nightmare scenario is if he finishes second but I don’t believe that will be the case.
8:30 Betdaq – The Sports Betting Exchange Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier) (4yo+, Class 4, 1m, 7 runners)
This looks the trickiest race of the four. I’ll take a chance on The Great Gabrial at big odds on BETDAQ. He came back to form at Southwell last time out but seems equally at home on the Polytrack.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6pts win PUZZLE TIME (6.30 Kempton)
BET 8pts win (nap) ABLE DASH (7.00 Kempton)
BET 5pts win (with saver 5pts PLACE LAY) SPIN ARTIST (8.00 Kempton)
BET 2pts win, 2pts PLACE THE GREAT GABRIAL (8.30 Kempton)
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