DAQMAN SPOTS TWO OUTSIDERS: Daqman describes as ‘massive’ the 19.5 and 17.5 offers he’s taken on BETDAQ about two outsiders today. His nap at Kempton could complete a double for Roger Varian.
BIG-RACE ABC TOMORROW: Look out tomorrow for his ABC Guide to Saturday’s second leg of the Autumn Double, the Cesarewitch at Newmarket.
WATERED DOWN BIG-RACE BETS ON MONTALY
CESAREWITCH WARNING: The big buzz for Saturday’s Cesarewitch is Andrew Balding’s Montaly. I’ll have my say in my ABC Guide tomorrow.
But Balding himself has had to issue a warning that, with dry weather for the rest of the week, the horse won’t be risked on firm ground. I imagine the Newmarket groundsman will take the hint and start watering.
BALLYDOYLE FORTUNES: The Dewhurst, also on Saturday, could shed light on next year’s Classics but my own warning at this time of year is always against risking ante-post bets on the Guineas and particularly the Derby.
For, at the same time as Aidan O’Brien tries to follow up Minding’s win last year in Friday’s Fillies’ Mile, so he will hope that, if he can take the Dewhurst, the winner will do better as a three-year-old than his last year’s ace Air Force Blue, who turned out a joker.
19.5 OFFER HALINKA LOOKS THROWN IN
2.30 Nottingham They grey filly Halinka will carry 7st 10lb here, so 18lb better off with Blue Suede and Turanga Leela, whom she met at level weights and went down three lengths in each case.
I took 19.5 in the BETDAQ orange, with the soft ground presumably favouring the light weights.
4.30 Nottingham The step up to this trip brought the best out of Burguillos in today’s conditions at Salisbury on the last day, with his Jumps trainer Alan King (pictured) having an exceptional Flat season.
The obvious danger to Burguillos is Toulson, who finished in front of him over a mile in the early summer but had a hard race to win at Sandown.
De Veer Cliffs is interesting, brought back to the track and conditions of the CD win that broke his maiden, and with Jamie Spencer booked.
I’m taking Toulson out of the equation because of his low draw, which leaves me with 6.0 Burguillos and 7.0 De Veer Cliffs against the field, with the market headed by a long-term bridesmaid, Al Destoor.
THIS IS THE RIGHT RACE FOR SHOWING OFF
6.50 Kempton Showing Off has been given plenty of time by Henry Candy and looked unlucky when, with the money down despite a three-month break, he was trapped on the rail at Newmarket in the summer.
Well drawn in gate 4 and three-year-olds have a 50% record in the race. There was 4.0 available this morning for exchange on BETDAQ.
7.20 Kempton At first glance this looks tough, an opinion borne out by the open BETDAQ market, trading to 110% at the time of writing.
But it could be a straight fight between Jim Crowley (Panko) and Silvestre de Sousa (Fashion Parade), with Panko finishing in front of Ocean Ready at Goodwood, unlucky not to win when denied a clear run.
Fashion Parade is massive at 17.5 offers, considering she’s dropped back from stamina tests down to the kind of trip that brought back-to-back wins in the summer. The question-mark would be the ground.
TANEEN CAN COMPLETE VARIAN DOUBLE
7.50 Kempton After Halinka more than five hours earlier at Nottingham, Roger Varian can complete a belated double on the day with Taneen.
I was impressed with the way he quickened at Leicester, and he turned round early-season placings with Dhahmaan by five lengths when favourite to beat Dancing Star in a top big-field sprint at Newmarket in July.
Lord Of The Land is dropped in class here but this entire’s winning form has been with cut in the ground, and he came down in the box with two losers here yesterday.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 2pts win and place HALINKA (2.30 Nottingham)
BET 4pts win BURGUILLOS and 3.5pts win DE VEER CLIFFS (4.30 Nottingham)
BET 6pts win SHOWING OFF (6.50 Kempton)
BET 5pts win PANKO, and 1pt win and place FASHION PARADE (7.20 Kempton)
BET 8pts win (nap) TANEEN (7.50 Kempton)
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