10-1 BIG-RACE WINS TWO DAYS RUNNING: Daqman yesterday won his second Cup in two days, with a total of five big-race bets producing five win-and-place returns thousands of miles apart between Flemington, Australia, and Exeter in Devon, England. The winners were both 10-1:
WON 10-1 Almandin (Melbourne Cup, from 13.0 BETDAQ
WON Qewy (4th 20-1, Melbourne Cup, from 27.0 BETDAQ)
WON 10-1 Sir Valentino (Haldon Gold Cup, from 12.0 BETDAQ)
NOW 113 POINTS PROFIT IN TWO DAYS: Adding another success yesterday, Mazzini (WON 15-8), he picked up 38 points following on Sunday’s 75, giving him 113 points profit in the two days, and taking the Flat-season challenge score to Daqman 82, Pricewise 39.
NICHOLLS’ £200,000 MASTER PLAN
Paul Nicholls’ new kids could nick a Saturday double. While the Flat season makes its usual damp-squib exit, the Ditcheat young bloods are included in a near-£200,000 steeplechase triple bid.
Now 10, Silviniaco Conti is the kingpin raider in the £82,000 Down Royal Champion Chase on Saturday, a race Nicholls (pictured) won twice with Kauto Star and which last year produced another Gold Cup winner, Don Cossack.
But, in the following race, the £29,500 Belfast Chase, and on Saturday week in the £91,000 December Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Saturday week) the six-year-old Le Mercurey and the virtually unknown Frodon are the new kids on the block, by the same sire, Nickname.
Unbeaten Frodon – not five until January 1 but going for the December ‘gold’ – is the jaw-dropper over jumps in the Nicholls yard. A ‘natural’ who ‘leaps like a stag’ are views from both jockey and stable lad.
Le Mercurey turned over the odds-on Bristol De Mai in the Future Champion Novices’ Chase at Ayr in April. He faced that opponent at level weights with a ratings deficit of 7lb, but won seven lengths, an upset of around a stone!
Rebecca Curtis (O’Faolains Boy) and Kim Bailey (The Last Samuri) are the only other English probables in a 15-strong field for Saturday’s Champion Chase, in which Gordon Elliott still has six – among them Don Poli – and Henry de Bromhead could saddle the top rating, Valseur Lido.
Elliott picks from five, including Lord Scoundrel, in the Belfast Chase, for which Willie Mullins Punchestown Festival winner, Avant Tout, could start favourite. He beat Lord Scoundrel before that one won the Galway Plate.
FINE CHANCE OF A WINNER AT 8.2
1.10 and 1.45 Chepstow We quickly lost 17 Chepstow runners because of the firm ground. I still fancy two of Alan King’s.
Criq Rock (1.10), a big strong type, well regarded by the trainer, won a bumper first time out last season, and the likeable Points winner Dingo Dollar, out of a Moscow Society mare, also has a leading chance.
3.20 Chepstow (Staying Hurdle Series Final) The handicapper has been pretty tough on Vinegar Hill and he is ignored in the market this morning after a total rise of 19lb for two Southwell successes but, as a Kayf Tara, he could improve again for the longer trip.
And the one they’ve made favourite, Trucker Glory, has taken an 8lb thump for winning a conditionals’ race, while Some Are Lucky has been steadily climbing the handicap for being beaten twice after his maiden win.
Truckers Glory could improve now for first-time cheekpieces but my two against che field at big prices are Vinegar Hill (14.5) on BETDAQ as I write) and So Fine (at 8.2), who is top weight for a reason: he’s much better than these on his day.
STAR STORM IS A HIDDEN HORSE
7.25 Kempton The top four, Luv U Whatever, Noble Gift, Power Game and Sunblazer, have winning form a grade higher than this.
Noble Gift provides an example of how misleading stats can be: his trainer, Bill Knight, and jockey, 5lb-claimer Callum Shepherd, have a 33% strike-rate when teaming up at Kempton but, according to the Racing Post, Shepherd is ‘off course’ at Kempton with 34 consecutive losers in the last 434 days.
So when did they ‘strike’? Their wining spell must go a long way back and, right now, Knight is also out of form, though it’s a small sample (0-8 in the last two weeks).
Power Game has been quiet this year but has never been out of the first four at Kempton (form figures 242114).
Prince Of Arran is two from two on the course, and there’s not much between him and Power Game, if an old line through Lord George could be relied on.
Sir Mark Prescott is a wizard at setting up sequence horses but gave Cliff Face 12 weeks off. Far too short at a paper forecast of 2-1, he’s drifted to 5.7 offers in the BETDAQ orange, so I’d rather take 4.0 Power Game and 6.6 Prince Of Arran against him.
7.55 Kempton James Fanshaw is the punters’ man at Kempton Park. His 22% strike rate (4-7 in Pattern and Listed) is one thing but his level-stakes 64-point profit is the revelation, when you realise we are dealing with 304 runners (68 winners).
Star Storm in this one is a hidden horse, after five out of six runs in Group company. This morning’s 7.2 best offer on BETDAQ is great value in a modest field.
John Gosden reaches for the visor for Western Hymn, and Restorer is said to be not quite ready after a recent op.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength, unless otherwise stated)
BET 7pts win CRIQ ROCK (1.10 Chepstow)
BET 5pts win DINGO DOLLAR (1.45 Chepstow)
BET 4pts win SO FINE, and 1pt win and place VINEGAR HILL (3.20 Chepstow)
BET 6pts win POWER GAME and 4pts win PRINCE OF ARRAN (7.25 Kempton)
BET (to win 30 points) 5pts win (nap) STAR STORM (7.55 Kempton)
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