3-1 HIT LANDS A PROFIT ON THE DAY: Boom, boom! roared Daqman when he presented his Christmas crackers column yesterday. Soon enough it was boom boom for his Tuesday bets, too, with a double-your money profit on the day, thanks to Gracious John (WON 3-1). Two bets, one winner.
30.0 OFFER IN THE LINGFIELD FEATURE: Today Daqman finds a huge offer in the feature race at Lingfield (30.0 taken) and then continues to hunt for big-odds value on the eight-race card at Kempton later in the day, with two short shots to cover and hopefully keep him in profit.
FORCEFUL FORM FOR A 30.0 OFFER
2.00 Lingfield Forceful Appeal would have gone for a hat-trick in the opening class-4 mile event (12.00) but a rise of 9lb over his last year’s winning rating means he has to move up to this class 3.
In fact, he won the All-Weather Championships Apprentice Handicap over this Lingfield CD in April in class 2.
He was a good fourth at that high level at the Epsom Derby meeting in June, not seen again until a couple of runs back on AW in November, totally friendless in the market at 50-1 and 80-1.
With trainer Simon Dow’s current Lingfield form 24112, Forceful Appeal should be ready now (December 13) to get off the 13-winner mark on AW, even though he’s 10 years old in less than three weeks. Her was matched at 30.0 early mouse.
One of the dangers could be Makaarim, six years younger and back to form on the last day, but he has officially improved only 4lb in five runs since the Spring.
Make Music has also raced in class 2, since winning his last two class-4 starts at Lingfield, one of them over the CD, but the Andrew Balding stable is showing very poor form, with three of his last four runners starting at 51-1 and 100-1 (twice). He’s 20 days without success and Make Music has been off the track since May.
Tom Dascombe is also without a recent winner and Mickey has been off the track 458 days.
Pearl Spectre has 101 form figures at Lingfield and is only 2lb higher than for a positive ride under Nicola Currie three runs back, though that those tactics have not succeeded again since.
WATCH YOUR CHRISTMAS TUM TUM
4.10 Kempton Coal Stock has had plenty of experience but not put it to best use, with just two places to show so far, albeit he was beaten only a head in one of them.
Things may change today, switched from turf to AW on his first run after being gelded and first appearance for new handler, Christian Williams, who is getting 100% from his horses, according to the Racing Post’s excellent RTF analysis. Well drawn yet 15.0 early.
4.40 Kempton Careful with that Tum Tum over Christmas! In fact, watch it now, well drawn and with the form of his Newmarket run looking strong.
The first past the post was followed home by a previous winner, then a three-time second, and the fourth franked the form with a win next time.
Tum Tum, a Dawn Approach colt, was just behind in fifth. Has a nice draw here and is partnered by Josephine Gordon, who is very much in demand, having had around 20 booked rides this week before the weather hit some of her plans. Tum Tum was 3.1 when BETDAQ opened the orange.
5.10 Kempton Another Dawn Approach juvenile here, appropriately named Morning Has Broken, and intriguingly out of a sister to Norse Dancer, which David Elsworth also trained to finished third in the 2,000 Guineas, fourth in the Derby.
Norse Dancer won first time out as a two-year-old at what was then Elzie’s local track, Salisbury. The stable is having a great year but not with its juveniles (0-12 in today’s AW discipline).
As ever with D. Elsworth, you can’t be sure what’s going on until they pass the post. I took a mighty swipe at 36.0. Probably an air shot!
5.40 Kempton Now here’s a stats conundrum. Mark Tompkins is getting 75% out of his horses (that’s the Post’s RTF again) but his stats say he’s saddled 48 consecutive losers in 119 days. Am I right in the conclusion that he has some really rubbish animals?
Oh dear! Merry Christmas, Mark, and a happier New Year. I can’t back your Ginger Lady today
But Marco Botti, getting a 63% response, has had five winners in his last six racing days, so don’t discount 12.0 BETDAQ offer Hail Cloud, a grandson of Galileo.
IT’S A DREAM PRICE AT BETDAQ 10.0
6.10 Kempton Winners by stall in the three years of this handicap: 4, 4, 5. Wild Acclaim and Desert Fox (drawn 5 and 6 respectively) have shown up well.
But three-times Kempton CD winner Dragon Dream (in 3) has been dropped to the same mark as his length second in a higher-class race at Sandown: 10.0 BETDAQ offers taken.
6.40 Kempton Same again for the draw bias: three winners from stalls 3 and 5 (twice).
Those drawn 1, 2 and 4 today would buck the trend for age (no winner older than five) for this or almost any race of its ilk.
Desert God (stall 3) has failed to cash in on a 15lb fall in his rating since pitched far too high by the handicapper based on form in India.
A gelding op hasn’t done much for Azam the last twice so, if in doubt, go hunting at the top of the handicap: at least you know the horse has earned a weight.
Song Light is capable on his best behaviour but has twice refused to start recently.
Sunblazer’s form in class 3 or lower, picking out only his races over 2m, is 1101. Another 10-pointer at around 2-1 to cover my outsiders today.
BETDAQ TIPS
2.00 Lingfield (to win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 1.6pts win and place FORCEFUL APPEAL
4.10 Kempton (win 30)
BET 2pts win and place COAL STOCK
4.40 Kempton (win 20)
BET 10pts win (nap) TUM TUM
5.10 Kempton (win 30 but backed at minimum stake)
BET 1pt win and place MORNING HAS BROKEN
5.40 Kempton (win 30)
BET 2.75pts win and place HAIL CLOUD
6.10 Kempton (win 30)
BET 3pts win and place DRAGON DREAM
6.40 Kempton (win 20)
BET 10pts win SUNBLAZER
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