11.0 SHOT FOR BRIGHTON DAY ONE: Daqman goes shooting Tiger in the Brighton Mile at 11.0 on BETDAQ this morning. But his nap is at Kempton Park tonight.
SUMMER’S NIGHT AT KEMPTON: Yes, BETDAQ-sponsored races are back at Kempton Park this evening, and Daqman says that Summer is a coming in!
Three days at Brighton. How romantic! At least that was the plan as a young Daqman took the Pullman rattler, the Brighton Belle, from Victoria Station to the notorious manor of Pinkie and his infamous pier.
I was accompanied by a nervous young lady who, despite her apprehensions, sat sedately and patiently in our carriage as I revealed an obvious preference for the broadsheet pages of the Sporting Life.
What would win the Brighton Mile? Would it be one of the old-time trainers – Akehurst, Budgett, Smyth, Van Cutsem – or one of those young pretenders Henry Candy, Peter Walwyn or Ian Balding?
Would Lindley, Durr or Piggott be there? Or one of the hot young jocks, Pat Eddery, Willie Carson, Greville Starkey?
First stop would be the pier and the rifle gallery. Start the day well by winning the lady a teddy bear. In those days, they were real guns. Real bullets. None of your Health and Safety!
But the rifles were as bent as the old-time bookies who welshed on their bets on the downs (Epsom and Brighton were notorious for them).
So you pretended to be new at the game, asked for a trial shot at the little cardboard target, got The Man to wind it back and – if you were any good at all – you could then judge the deviation in the barrel.
‘Not bad,’ said The Man, as my seemingly-nervous amateurish test shot had fired the slug off centre. ‘Come on, then; nine goes for half a crown’.
‘Ok,’ I said. ‘But, if I hit the bull first shot, will you give me the teddy bear?’ Relying on the bend in his barrel, he grinned at my lady friend: ‘He’s got no chance..’
I only needed the one shot. Bulls eye! Dead centre. ‘Ere, what’s your game,’ he demanded. ‘No professionals! Play the game!’
It took me a good 10 minutes to argue the teddy off him, helped by some garrulous passersby. The lady clutched her prize. Would it be an omen for the races: a winning day?
Don’t miss tomorrow’s gripping installment: Was Daqman lucky with all his aims (wink wink) or did he miss by a Mile? First things first.
3.50 Brighton Mile So what’s ‘bent’ about today’s Brighton Mile? Answer: the draw. Such is the bias that, since 2007, stalls 10 to 15 have reached the frame 17 times!
Let’s have three shots, not nine. And we’ll make them all count by betting on BETDAQ, a punter-friendly range where I’ve proved so many times that offers are loaded in our favour.
Aqua Ardens has already has three goes at this Brighton mile course, starting in June, returning form figures of 112, but all were small-field races and the handicapper has hiked his rating from 59 to 71.
It puts front-runner Exceedandexpectations (stall 14) in with a great shout of reversing places with him on the better terms (they were 1-2 over CD five weeks ago), but he’s won only on a man-made surface and it’s doubtful he’ll get a soft lead up front.
It depends whether Lunar Deity (stall 2) and Party Royal (in 4), who are also front-runners, get across to the pace. ‘Expectations’ are that he’ll be trying to slow the field down, so the chances are that they will. However, there are low expectations and, therefore, high odds (15.0 on BETDAQ this morning) about the Conor Dore four-year-old.
Toga Tiger (11.0 on BETDAQ, as I write) should go close. Though a bit high in the handicap, he’s been able to rattle up two hat-tricks as if well always well capable of landing the money.
One of those sequences was three in a row over this Brighton mile! Drawn in 12 today and his yard, Jeremy Gask’s, scored at Goodwood last week with a 25-1 shot.
Of the others high draw, Starwatch (16) needs cut in the ground; Slim Chance (13) has just that, as winner only of her maiden two years ago; quirky Jubilee Brig (11) is having his first run of the year; The Cayterers (10) is risky as an 11-year-old off top weight.
That leaves Bank On Me (stall 15, offers of 8.6), who looks a bit disguised. The handicapper has probably been wise to leave his rating alone after two runs of promise, one when hampered, then over a trip too far.
Enriching is another hat-trick winner but in very poor company (class 6) and now running off his highest mark. Similarly, Raging Bear has struggled in claimers.
6.00 Kempton (Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq Apprentice Handicap) A very open contest, according to the market, with five horses separated by 1.5 points in offers on BETDAQ this morning.
King Olav should set the target and may last into the frame off 74 but doesn’t look the same horse at the age of eight that won here with a 91 rating in 2010.
Shavansky (trip too far?) and Sir Boss (has never won off this high a mark) are also old boys and Standpoint is up in grade.
Takeitfromthelady needs turf soft and Manomine has 7lb more than when beaten under today’s rider and on today’s course over a furlong shorter in April.
English Summer (6.2 at the time of writing) returns to Polytrack back to the same mark as his CD win in January and, though behind Layline on his last Kempton run in May, is from a stable doing well and, before switching to turf, had AW form of 212112. Nap.
6.30 Kempton (Betdaq 1st UK Race Commission Free Fillies’ Handicap) Three-year-olds usually start winning ‘everything’ about now, and took all three places off the older horses in this race last year.
But what to choose from among four excellent stables with four top-class riders in the saddle? Jim Crowley has a massive total as leading rider at Kempton.
And Ralph Beckett, trainer of his ride, Prospera, has a magnificent 23% strike rate on the Sunbury track. Only Prospera and Spieta (Cumani-Fallon) (second overt CD in June) have AW form and, at around 5.0 each, I can split my stake.
7.30 Kempton (£200 Free Bets At Betdaq Handicap) Cumani and Fallon again, reaching for first-time blinkers on Jazz Master’s Polytrack debut. Jim Crowley again, but giving weight all round on Nearly Caught.
Stiff Upper Lip was a clear winner on his only Kempton start and successful on turf recently. Looks capable of taking the step up in class.
But, if the blinds work on Jazz Master, he must surely be placed after running second to Silver Dixie, who managed third in a class-3 at the big Goodwood meeting last week.
Wherever Jazz Master is Fast Pace should be, on their Nottingham form in July. But Jim Crowley, who rode Fast Pace when third with Jazz Master only fifth that day has deserted her for Nearly Caught.
Nearly Caught was nearly favourite this morning, but he’s run only on soft and his sire, New Approach, has had just three AW winners in his entire stud career.
Candoluminescence is still a maiden but in good hands and could run into a place, but I’ll take Stiff Upper Lip (4.0 on BETDAQ) and Jazz Master (6.2) to dispute the prize.
8.30 Kempton (Commission Free 1st Month At Betdaq Handicap) Cumani, Charlton, Gosden and Hills are top yards in contention for another Betdaq-sponsored race in the London Mile series.
John Gosden thought Stresa good enough to run in the Listed Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot, won by last week’s very smart Goodwood Group winner, Annecdote.
Stresa should be good enough for this but Quest For More won at Windsor despite looking green as grass, so you must have a stakes saver in case we see big improvement.
Note: I am not one of those tipsters who marks ‘saver’ against a string of horses and claims them when they win. ‘Saver’ in my language means a bet to cover the stakes (only) on the main selection in case things go wrong or because you fear it at a short price and don’t want to risk double-figure stakes.
DAQMAN’S BETS: Selections each to win 20 points.
BET 2.6pts win BANK ON ME, 2pts win TOGA TIGER and 1.4pts win EXCEEDANDEXPECTATIONS (3.50 Brighton)
BET 3.8pts win (nap) ENGLISH SUMMER (6.00 Kempton)
BET 5pts win on each PROSPERA and SPIETA (6.30 Kempton)
BET 6.6pts win STIFF UPPER LIP and 3.8pts win JAZZ MASTER (7.30 Kempton)
BET 7.2pts win STRESA and 3.2pts win (stakes saver) QUEST FOR MORE (8.30 Kempton)
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