DAQMAN’S STAR NAP WINS AGAIN FOR 40 WINNING NH BEST BETS: Daqman landed back-to-back naps yesterday to take his total in the NH season since November 10th to 40 winning best bets for a level-stakes profit of 61.59 points to 10-point stakes. Krazy Paving WON 15/8 gave him two winners from three races on Tuesday for a 15 point profit.
WON 5-4 ESTRELA STAR (yesterday’s nap)
WON 2-1 CLAP YOUR HANDS (Monday’s nap)
THE GRAND NATIONAL HANDICAP: WHICH HORSES HAVE THE EDGE? They’re disappointed with Tiger Roll’s weight for the Grand National hat-trick bid but who from last year’s result has better news from the weights that were revealed yesterday, and who has his horses placed in the ideal stats position of age and weight, based on recent results in the big Aintree race? Daqman tells all below.
HOW LONG WILL TIGER LEAD ROLL CALL?
Roll over, Tiger! That seems to be the message of the weights for the Liverpool Grand National, which for the second year running have leaned only marginally toward helping the ‘names’ of the race, as they get welter burdens over the 4m 4f.
Compression of the handicap used to be a common thing but Tiger Roll has been allowed only a pound as he bids for a hat-trick in the race 11lb higher than for his second success last year.
On first impressions, connections reckoned Tiger Roll doubtful to contest the race. He and his Gigginstown stablemate, Gold Cup plunge Delta Work, are both set 11st 10lb off 170.
The ‘A’ team is completed by Bristol De Mai (Nigel Twiston-Davies 168) and Native River (Colin Tizzard 166), currently saddled with 11st 8lb and 11st 6lb, both compressed 2lb but likely to rise to the 11-10 top mark if the Gigginstown duo drop out.
Winners in recent years, all aged eight and nine since the course was made easier in the push for quality, have lined up with ratings of 160, 148, 154, 150, 159.
As I did with the Lincoln Handicap, I am listing the stats pick (in the TOP 10 list below) of those currently at the right age and rating.
LAST YEAR: First, those returning from last year in the order they finished:
1 Tiger Roll up from 159 to 170 (previous win in 2018 off 150; current rating 171)
2 Magic Of Light up from 151 to 158
4 Walk In The Mill up from 144 to 150
5 Anibale Fly down from 164 to 162 (previous 4th in 2018 off 159)
6 One For Arthur down from 154 to 148 (previous winner off 148 in 2017)
7 Regal Encore down from 152 to 146
8 Singlefarmpayment down from 146 to 139
9 Outlander down from 158 to 145
12 A Toi Phil down from 151 to 144
15 Vieux Lion Rouge down from 146 to 142 (previous 9th in 2018 off 150)
18 Valtor down from 150 to 160
AINTREE TOP 10 IN BETDAQ SPORTSBOOK
5.15 Aintree (Grand National, Saturday, April 4) As I did with the Lincoln Handicap (see Daqman Archive for Monday), I am listing the stats pick: those currently at the right age and rating. It applies to a group which are officially 152 to 160, as they stand.
160 Chris’s Dream (Henry De Bromhead) won Troytown Chase: 34.0 BETDAQ
159 Jett (Jessica Harrington) placed in 14 chases (Grade 3 level); 80.0 BETDAQ
158 Magic Of Light (Jessica Harrington) second 2019 National; 15.0 BETDAQ
158 The Storyteller (Gordon Elliott) Irish Gold Cup third; 41.0 BETDAQ
158 Voix Du Reve (Willie Mullins) Fairyhouse Ryanair winner; 66.0 BETDAQ
157 Talkischeap (Alan King) Sandown Gold Cup winner (3m 5f); BETDAQ 34.0
154 Crievehill (Nigel Twiston-Davies) jumped round in Grand Sefton; BETDAQ 80.0
154 Jury Duty (Gordon Elliott) gamble into 10-1 last year; unseated; BETDAQ 50.0
152 Any Second Now (Ted Walsh) won 2019 Kim Muir; BETDAQ 26.0
152 Champagne Classic (Gordon Elliott) Always in first three: BETDAQ 34.0
THERE’S RED IN BETDAQ ORANGE
4.00 Southwell Jorvik Prince is 2-2 over 5f in 14 days since joining his new yard but the handicapper doesn’t allow sequencing in this category and his penalty brings the bridesmaid Qaaraat up alongside him.
He in turn is closed down in the revised weights by Final Legacy (also penalised) on autumn form.
But the one who comes out best is Red Stripes, better off with Final Legacy though he beat that one here at Southwell last month in class 6. He is dropped down to that level again today.
The 8.7 in the BETDAQ orange this morning looked big on those collateral form lines, when you could get only 3.5 Jorvik Prince.
CANDELISA ALL SET TO SWOOP AGAIN
7.00 Kempton This London Mile qualifier is a very long way from the final in September but fulfils a second objective, to provide decent sport with decent prizes along the way. I’ve advocated more of these.
Intrepidly was given a tough rating as a Jeremy Noseda maiden winner and the handicapper still seems to have bang on his measure, since he’s been beaten twice in earlier qualifiers, going down a frustrating short-head in one of them.
Harbour Breeze is interesting. He’s won here from the front at Kempton over 1m 3f. Does he have the pace to dictate over this shorter trip? Or can he hold his position just off the pace and deliver his stamina in a late run?
Divine Messenger has no such complications as to trip, but when he completed two wins from five a year ago, he ran off 68 in a class 5. Today it’s higher grade, higher rating; but it could be argued that his return over CD three weeks’ back off 82 after a long absence was his best run so far.
He was giving weight all round, including 8lb to the winner, beaten only a length by Candelisa (Lethal Missile behind). Was that improvement or because he was produced fresh, a ‘job’ that went narrowly wrong?
Candelisa is getting just 4lb from him now but racereaders were impressed by the way he swooped on Divine Messenger. Or was Divine Messenger short of match fitness? The rerun today will resolve these thorny questions.
It’sakindamagic and Delicate Kiss are both capable on their day. Sea Fox lost his way after back-to-back autumn wins at Wolverhampton and first-time blinkers didn’t seem to help on the last day.
On trainerform, I’m inclined toward Candelisa (BETDAQ 3.4) and Delicate Kiss, whose win against her own sex is less convincing for today’s test. As ever, if one horse wins from today’s trio, we do no worse than break even.
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.00 Southwell (win 10)
BET 1.3pts win RED STRIPES
7.00 Kempton (win 10)
BET 4pts win (nap) CANDELISA
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