ANOTHER DAQMAN NAP! YOU CAN’T KEEP THE BOY DOWN FOR LONG: Daqman, who rounded off Goodwood with back-to-back naps at 2-1 and 4-5, made it three out of five with another winning best bet yesterday. That’s my boy!
WON 5-2 MYBOYMAX (nap)
SATURDAY PREVIEW: HOW TO GET A HANDLE ON THE SHERGAR CUP: Daqman starts his Wednesday column with a preview of Saturday’s Shergar Cup with facts and stats which suggest that the punter keeps a wary eye open.
THE NOT-ALWAYS-SO-CLASSY ASCOT
Musical jockeys. Jockey-go-round. Just two of the epithets for Saturday’s Shergar Cup at Ascot by those purists who can’t take it seriously, as some riders they don’t know are drawn to partner horses they themselves don’t know!
Those who like it talk about a garden-party atmosphere which is of little interest to those who work the markets from home.
Six 10-runner races of dash, sprint, mile, challenge, classic and stayers pit four teams against each other, with points for winner, second, third etc., including teams for Europe and Rest of The World.
‘Regrettably, given the complexities of flying jockeys around the world and uncertainty over what governmental regulations will be in place, the Shergar Cup won’t take place this year,’ quote unquote in 2020.
So what’s changed in 2021. Not a lot in terms of the uncertainties. And, with thunderstorms forecast, the edge will be very much to those sitting at home with a computer, playing the BETDAQ orange.
The pain of punting is that you only have in front of you the kinds of races decided by someone else. You have to bet what there is, which has become more and more loathsome midweek, as mundane events stack up mediocre horses.
The problem with such animals is that they rarely hold form for long, or are ‘thinkers’ or the like who only condescend to perform when they feel like it. Let’s check Saturday out:
QUALITY: The Shergar Cup races are all class 2 and class 3 so we do hope for some level of quality, though the very first horse currently top of the list for the Dash (class 2) has never won above class 4 on turf, and the very first in the Mile (class 2) has never won higher than class 3. I took those two at random.
Warning: Graded racing allows horses to slide up or down the scale from class 6 into class 2 and on to glory.
But that’s only if your pick is a young improver or a rare late developer. Otherwise horses are stuck in a narrow ratings span and simply do not leap up in class.
So first assess the race: is it really class 2 as it says, or is it trumped up for an occasion. Now assess the horses: where do they fit into the great scheme of class distinction in the racehorse?
It may have been a class 2 he won but was it full of class 2 horses or were they class 4 being given a helping hand up the ladder under the conditions of the race.
AGE: Ascot is a fast track, and older horses, generally speaking, lose their speed. I checked out the past results and there were only five winners in total above the age of five in nine seasons.
TRAINER: Each race has a £20,000 first prize, with prizemoney right down the field to the very last horse.
No coincidence that trainers for this time of year are delighted to scoop up the cash: Andrew Balding 6, Mark Johnston 3, William Haggas 3, Richard Hannon 2, Clive Cox 2, Dean Ivory 2.
JOCKEY: Finally, those darn jockeys, who are drawn for horses not necessarily ideal for them. Surely best be on the champions who know what they’re doing with a strange horse on this particular track. Or is it? Judge for yourself:
The top Silver Saddle winners have been – of those still riding – Hayley Turner 2 (2018, 2019) and Gerald Mosse 2 (2008, 2013), with Ryan Moore and Olivier Peslier one each.
VALUE: See Tuesday’s Daqman for the best place to give yourself a chance.
⚠️ HEADS UP: David Menuisier announces that Olivier Peslier will ride Wonderful Tonight in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
SWEET ON HER CHANCES
⭕ 7.15 Yarmouth Sweet Enough looks more than good enough to land this fillies handicap for the John and Thady Gosden combo.
She starts life in handicap company off a mark of 80 which looks fair enough judged on her comfortable maiden success at Newmarket last time out when she made all the running to win going away by three and three quarter lengths. The step up from seven furlongs to a mile tonight should be in her favour.
Whilst she was a little weak in early BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE betting I see this as nothing else than market correction from a very cautious opening price from the layers. She was certainly never an odds-on chance to win this.
Elvrika looks the main danger. Her balance of form suggests she is better on a quicker surface which might excuse her poor run at Beverley last time out when jockey Joe Fanning reported that she simply ‘ran flat’. She might be better judged on her Haydock win over this trip in June.
SIDING WITH THE PRINCE
⭕ 8.15 Yarmouth Laura Pearson continues to impress and she might well land the closing sprint handicap on Dark Side Prince.
He’s a three-time winner for the Jessica Macey yard and remains in great heart. His latest effort was a course and distance third to Electric Love (who was ridden by Pearson that day) and with a drop of 3lb in the weights he could easily improve on that effort.
Going the other way in the weights is Expert Opinion who will need to defy a statutory 6lb penalty for a narrow course and distance win last week and this looks a little tougher.
SUPER OVER TO BOWL’EM
⭕ 9.00 Kempton The nightcap can go to Super Over and Hollie Doyle.
The only course and distance winner in the race, Super Over is a class dropper who should also be suited by the return to the artificial surface.
The danger looks to be the unexposed Motorious but would be hard to recommend as a bet given he is trying this trip and the all-weather for the first time.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 7.0pts win (nap) SWEET ENOUGH (7.15 Yarmouth)
BET 2.9pts win DARK SIDE PRINCE (8.15 Yarmouth)
BET 3.3pts win SUPER OVER (9.00 Kempton)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
