THE WINNER-A-DAY ENDEAVOUR: It was a bold start but, for the second time recently, Daqman’s opening shot was a strike but then his luck changed yesterday. At least the winner-a-day theme continues.
WON 5-6 BOLD ENDEAVOUR
BIG-RACE PREVIEWS- Part 2 Today he analyses the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday.
BEST WINNERS WERE CHASERS
⭕ 2.40 Kempton, Saturday (Lanzarote Hurdle) STATS: Ages 5, 6 and 7 are 7-10. TRAINERS: Nicky Henderson 4, Paul Nicholls 3, Nick Williams 3, Venetia Williams 2.
LAYS LOGIC: Only one outright favourite in the decade.
Yesterday I reminisced about the great names of the past in the Warwick Classic chase. But the Lanzarote has no such hurdles history.
That is, not since Make A Stand won for Martin Pipe in 1997 and went on to take the Champion Hurdle.
But notice I said ‘hurdles history’. Its familiar names are on racing’s roll of honour as future chasers.
Tiutchev (1999), sent chasing by Nicky Henderson and passed later to Martin Pipe, won the 2020 Arkle.
Tea For Two (2015) won the Aintree Bowl and ran in the Grand National under Lizzie Kelly.
Yala Enki (2016) won the Tommy Whittle and the Haydock Park Grand National Trial for Venetia Williams and was third three years running in the Welsh Grand National, once for Venetia and twice for Paul Nicholls and Bryony Frost.
At last in 2018, a big player in the hurdles field – or at least one some lucky punters will remember – William Henry (tricky Nicky Henderson again).
The Kings Theatre gelding followed up his Lanzarote with fourth, joint favourite, in the Coral Cup but, the forgotten horse at 28-1, he landed the same race at Cheltenham 2019 by a short-head and half a length.
HERE’S THE THEORY
⭕ 2.15 Lingfield Clearly the best race on the card revolves around the Charlie Johnston trained Capital Theory who is seeking a four-timer but the difference today is that he is stepping up in trip to uncharted 1m 4f waters.
The evidence is mixed as to whether it will suit him enough to continue the sequence. He stayed on strongly when winning at Chelmsford in December but only seemed to last home over a SHORTER trip at Wolverhampton over Christmas.
I think with these question marks I’d prefer to look elsewhere on the Betdaq Betting Exchange and Base Note, trained by the Crisford’s, looks a solid alternative who at least has proven form over this trip.
He’s only raced at Lingfield once before when a five length winner and a repetition of his latest efforts at Wolverhampton should be good enough.
LOOKS A BREEZE
⭕ 7.00 Kempton Miss Dolly Rocker has had four starts without success but has hit the frame on each occasion. Form figures usually to be wary of and she steps up in trip here.
She was staying on at Lingfield last time out and was only beaten a short head at the line but had previously struggled to get home here over a mile and I’m very wary of backing her at relatively short odds to see out the extra three furlongs.
Brora Breeze represents the Andrew Balding yard who can do little wrong (7 winners from last 16). She looks far more certain to be suited by the longer trip and I think has much more scope for improvement than Miss Dolly Rocker.
FIVE FOR FOUR
⭕ 8.00 Kempton Blazeon Five is a four-timer seeker that I want to be with on the Kempton card.
The Roger Teal trained runner is still relatively lightly raced and the mare has been a revelation since being stepped up to the marathon trip with two of her recent wins coming over course and distance.
She bolted home at Southwell in December on her latest start and a further hike of 7lb might not be enough to halt her progress against rivals who, in the main, look in the grip of the handicapper.
The danger may come from Kincade who returns to the flat off a favourable mark but his two recent starts over hurdles don’t fill me with much hope – particularly the latest at Wetherby over Christmas when he was beaten 40 lengths.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.15 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 3.1pts win BASE NOTE
7.00 Kempton (win 10)
BET 3.3pts win BRORA BREEZE
8.00 Kempton (win 10, nap)
BET 5.0pts win BLAZEON FIVE
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