£20,000 BETDAQ FLOODLIT FEATURE AT KEMPTON: There’s a race and a half at Kempton Park tonight, with a big bonus Betdaq boost to the Listed contest. The Betdaq Floodlit Stakes is so keenly contested that Daqman is forced to split his stakes.
NO MAGIC FROM McCOY TODAY: Tony McCoy has lost a mount today from the scheduled card at Chepstow, leaving him just one ride, so, unless he picks up a spare, he can’t hit the 4,000 today, though, ironically, Daqman thinks a horse called Old Magic is worth a win and place bet.
The law of averages is a fallacy for betting. Unless you are a fan of A P McCoy (who isn’t?). The greatest jockey is currently riding at a strike rate of 26%. And he’s scored one in four regularly over the years.
Yesterday showed that you can’t back him blind – he rode all losers – but only a man blind to the law of McCoy averages could fail to see that the 4,000 is now overdue.
Nothing’s going right at the moment. If McCoy had landed the Chepstow opener on El Macca (1.10), win number 4,000 could have come, appropriately, with Mission Complete (2.40).
But there is no Mission Complete. He’s been withdrawn from the race. Whether our man will pick up a ride later on, you tell me. From over my cornflakes, I think we’ll be waiting until tomorrow for 3,999.
McCoy is 242324 for Rebecca Curtis in the last two weeks. She’s missing strike badly, and El Macca is making his racecourse debut.
Market rival Jean De Florette (buy the movie if you’ve never seen it) has bumper experience but is an entire and comes to hurdling at the ripe old age of six.
I’m tempted by a bit each way on Wing Mira at 10.5 on BETDAQ, as I write, with Venetia Williams flying, three winners and a second from her last four starters.
Her Radical Impact (3.15), first time in a handicap, is also tempting at 5.0, getting 22lb from the favourite, Brave Buck, with Jeanry, Floral Lea and Pirans Car all easy to back this morning (but watch the market near the ‘off’).
Sophie Leech and Paul Moloney are 50% at Chepstow and will have primed Old Magic (4.20) for a repeat of last year’s win. He surely won’t be far away, so worth a bit each way at 8.6.
4.30 and 5.00 Kempton (Betdaq – Sports Betting Exchange Maiden Fillies’ Stakes Divisions 1 and 2) A decent prize and the end-of-season ‘needs must’ to get these fillies on to a racecourse means a huge turn-out, and a split race, with top stables represented.
The Godolphin pair, Maria Bella (4.30 Charlie Appleby) and Natural Choice (5.00 Saeed Bin Suroor) were the ones for the money this morning.
But, despite both being drawn wide in stall 13, Aurelia Cotta and Billowing were shorter than predicted by the trade paper in their respective races. Continue to watch the BETDAQ market.
Charles Hills, no doubt still celebrating his Breeders’ Cup win with Chriselliam, steps Aurelia Cottam up in trip and, at 8.8, is another win-and-place bet today.
5.30 Kempton (£500 Free Bets At Betdaq Handicap) Old boys Greylami and Stevie Thunder came together here over 1m 2f in June and both looked as though today’s extra furlong would help but, in fact, Stevie has never won beyond a mile and Greylami has already tried this trip twice since then and failed.
Burnham should ensure there’s some pace on. He always races in touch but, since his run over 2m 2f, they will be more confident still of his stamina.
The filly Deserted is only three and could have improved for Luca Cumani. It’s a question of whether she takes to the surface.
But Burnham is a better offer at 8.8 on BETDAQ this morning, along with the 10.0 Forget Me Not Lane. Kevin Ryan books Kieren Fallon for his Yorkshire raider, having got the gelding’s weight down 8lb since July.
7.00 Kempton (Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq Floodlit Stakes) A massive feature race of Listed status, with £20,000 to the winner, and Godolphin going for a hat-trick.
Saeed bin Suroor has won it back to back – four years out of five, in fact – with older horses but gives way tonight to a Charlie Appleby three-year-old.
After winning on the July Course at 1m 2f, Urban Dance was the ‘moral’ by a very long way over the Rowley Mile’s 1m 4f, beat en less than two lengths giving 13lb to the winner and tonight’s sharp 1m 4f looks ideal.
Pether’s Moon has the double bonus for punters in that he’s already won a class 2 and is already a winner on the Kempton surface.
Great Hall, winner of a class-12 handicap at Haydock, drops back from a tilt at the St Leger, and is blinkered first time.
Globetrotting Gatewood, third at Group 3 in the Cumberland Lodge and winner if a Grade 3 in Australia, is not the only older horse to catch the eye in this exciting contest.
Jehannedarc must be highly thought of, sent around the world by Ed Dunlop, failing in Group 1 and Group 2, but a contender here as winner at Deauville on AW last year.
You’ll need to take an early position and revisit the race in the hour before the ‘off’, when market strength will become clear, but the stats tell me two things.
I need an older horse (so Gatewood) but Godolphin farm the race (so Urban Dance). I think Urban Dance is progressive so I’ll take the early offers and save on Gatewood.
7.30 Kempton (Betdaq 1st Uk Race Commission Free Handicap) Apostle’s early pace should bust the lungs of the old boys Docofthebay, Ocean Legend and Palace Moon, and winners from a lower level – Lady of The House and Mister Musicmaster – don’t seem good enough.
Chookie Royale did well here in October – two wins and a second – and Jason Hart’s claim keeps him in contention, while Horsted Keynes is on a roll, though that means he’s opened short.
I can’t fancy Common Touch at his weight and on this surface and, though Suehail is interesting, as a dual winner at Dundalk (AW), the market speaks against him.
Regal Dan is my punt, a sporting nap on a difficult day. He’s been within a couple of lengths of class-2 success three turf races running, twice very well backed, and is better than the bare form.
Punting plus: The gambled-on Doctor Harper (WON 8-11) was a tremendous morning offer at better than 2-1 on BETDAQ yesterday. I might not have backed him at SP. Such is the nature of Betdaq betting.
Punting minus: I opposed Cue Card but he was such a fair offer on BETDAQ in the morning, I could not lay him under my strict price rules. I kicked myself when he was 11-10 SP. A definite lay. Such is the nature of Betdaq betting.
Conclusion: Follow the market. There’s more value on Betdaq in the morning. And there are strong clues to the potential outcome when you get near the race. You’ve never had it so good.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Bets are to win 20 points)
BET 2.1pts win and place WING MIRA (1.10 Chepstow)
BET 5pts win RADICAL IMPACT (3.15 Chepstow)
BET 2.6pts win and place OLD MAGIC (4.20 Chepstow)
BET 2.5pts win and place AURELIA COTTAM (4.30 Kempton)
BET 2.5pts win BURNHAM and 2pts win FORGET ME NOT LANE (5.30 Kempton)
BET 7pts win URBAN DANCE, and 4.2pts win GATEWOOD (7.00 Kempton)
BET 4pts win (nap) REGAL DAN, with 2.5pts win (stakes saver) HORSTED KEYNES (7.30 Kempton)
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