18-1 SONIC BOOM AND SUPERNAP STRIKE: From the sublime 18-1 winner, May Sonic, at Southwell to the ridiculously easy eight lengths and 24 supernap strike by Limerick Lace at Down Royal, Daqman made 31 points yesterday. Supernaps are rare and this was his first of the year, but it was his third outsider to win in a 10-day spree which has totalled 147 points profit:
♦️ Profit on eight days out of 10
♦️ Total winnings (all stakes) 147pts
♦️ Five naps up out of 10 (50%)
♦️ Winners at 18-1, 14-1 and 9-1
WON 18-1 MAY SONIC
WON 8-11 LIMERICK LACE (supernap)
CHELTENHAM TRIALS: Today Daqman continues his previews of the big races to come this week, concentrating on Cheltenham Trial day with the novice and handicap races; Thursday and Friday, the Graded heats.
BLENKINSOP A FUTURE STAYER
⭕ 11.40 Cheltenham, Saturday (Triumph Trial) Triumph Hurdle winners Peace And Co (2015) and Defi Du Seuil (2017) have come through from success in this in the decade.
But Nicky Henderson, who won it four times including with Peace And Co, doesn’t have a runner this time. Philip Hobbs (Defi Du Seuil) has Mombasa, ex-French who probably needs rain.
⭕ 12.10 Cheltenham (novices chase) Last year’s winner of this ran second at Cheltenham but before that Mister Whitaker (2018) and Simply The Betts (2020) both went on to win the Brown Advisory.
It has not been a race for the Irish but Gordon Elliott has six entries in it on Saturday, of which the highest rated are Chemical Energy (off 153), already a short price for the NH Chase in March, and Hollow Games (147), who has several big-race entries.
Stage Star (Paul Nicholls) lost his way over hurdles but is 2-3 over fences since the summer break.
⭕ 1.50 Cheltenham (2m 4f+ handicap chase) Nicholls took this in 2018 with Frodon, prepping for the Ryanair at Cheltenham, which he won gamely.
The Ditcheat trainer could now run Il Ridoto, who drops down from Cheltenham Grade-3 chases, one on the old, one on this new course. He was fourth in both.
But the favourite on Saturday is likely to be Richard Hobson’s Fugitif, who switches from the Clarence House.
Fugitif ran second here on the Old course in November to Amarillo Sky, who remains in the Clarence House.
Stolen Silver would run if the ground is on the good side. He won the Grade-2 Silver Trophy here in April by 11 lengths.
⭕ 3.35 Cheltenham (novices’ hurdle) A subsequent Albert Bartlett winner took this in 2013; At Fishers Cross trained by Rebecca Curtis.
Santini (2018) was third in the Albert Bartlett.
Eleven last-time winners are still engaged, with Henri The Second (Nicholls) the only Graded winner.
But Blenkinsop (Henry Daly) caught the eye completing a four-timer at Newbury on the last day of last year.
Keeps on improving (27lb overall in November and December), well backed every time and jockey Tim O’Brien said after Blenkinsop went clear at Newbury: ‘We took our time and he only had to be nudged forward. I had a lot of faith in him.’
His traveling so well makes him the perfect ride for a horse who is bred for stamina. Half–bother to Fortescue (3m chase) and related on the dam’s side to 3m 2f winners.
MAD, SAD BUT NOT BAD
⭕ 2.15 Catterick I wasn’t involved in the final race at Southwell last night. The (profitable) business on the day had already been concluded so was on the hot chocolate by then. However it did feature an odds on favourite in the shape of Run Teddy Run who was bidding for a course and distance hat-trick but came up short by a short head.
The reason I mention it is that he was burdened by a double penalty which is notoriously difficult to defy. It’s not a piece of smug after-timing because, as I said, I had no involvement in the race but can ‘pre-time’ today that I want to be against Supreme Gift, the narrow morning favourite on Betdaq Betting Exchange, in this novices’ hurdle who also has a double penalty to defy.
The first rule of racing is that there are no rules and of course the Henry Daly trained runner COULD do it but we try and play percentages and get it right more times than we get it wrong playing the BETDAQ odds in our favour.
It always helps to have a few more factors up our sleeve than double penalty alone.
I think Supreme Gift could be a little quirky. He ducked left and crashed through the rails at Newcastle two starts ago.
He also has a serious rival on his hands here in the form of Howlingmadmurdock who is unbeaten in two starts including his hurdling debut at Plumpton for which he picks up a single penalty.
That win came on the same soft ground as expected in North Yorkshire today and he looks a decent prospect.
SUPER TROOPER
⭕ 7.00 Kempton Dark Trooper showed ability in four starts on the turf including notably being a possibly unlucky runner-up in a class 2 at Newbury.
He clearly has talent and got off the mark on his all-weather debut at Southwell earlier in the month.
He wandered about in the closing stages and is up 2lb which would normally temper my enthusiasm but the runner-up from that race Serenity Rose came out to win well last week which gives the form a timely boost.
This isn’t the strongest of races either. Dyed In The Wool won nicely at Newcastle but it wasn’t a strong contest and has been shoved up 4lb.
⭕ 8.00 Kempton Hot chocolate on hold tonight as I have a bet in the nightcap. Anisoptera looks a spot of value against two more vulnerable shorter priced runners.
The mare seemed to appreciate being dropped back in trip last time out at Lingfield to finish second at 25/1 – a hugely improved effort on her previous start.
Solanna is up 4lb for a 1/2 length course and distance win last time out (no thank you) whilst Mr Zee was a beaten favourite over course and distance last time out and might need more help from the handicapper than the token one point drop.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.15 Catterick (win 10)
BET 5.2pts win HOWLINGMADMURDOCK
7.00 Kempton (win 10, nap)
BET 7.4pts win DARK TROOPER
8.00 Kempton (win 10)
BET 1.4pts win ANISOPTERA
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