TWO MORE WINNERS FOR DAQMAN: Daqman’s bets finished 13231 yesterday, the two winners giving him an overall profit on the day of 10.75 points.
WON 2-1 SHIGHNESS
WON 11-8 BIT HARSH
NATIONAL RAID: 85 entries were yesterday announced for the Aintree Grand National in April, only 31 of them British.
SUPREME STORY: Facile: Not Easy To Swallow.
TODAY: Mixed news on the weather front. Ludlow was called off but Southwell (jumps) goes ahead.
FACILE: NOT EASY TO SWALLOW
Facile winner flops. In normal circumstances, after a headline like that, we would wait for the horse to run again before deciding on his Cheltenham chance.
But there is no time to see Facile Vega try to redeem himself before the festival; we must rely on his previous comfortable strikes, a four-timer culminating in the Future Champions defeat of stablemate L’Etait Temps at Leopardstown over Christmas.
It was L’Etait Temps who turned the tables on Sunday, this time finishing 20 lengths in front of Facile Vega, who set a fast pace.
‘Too fast’, says trainer Willie Mullins, who blamed jockey Paul Townend, though he’d done a similar thing in the Future Champions, front-running a tad slower that day but, then, that was on a slower surface.
Mullins had told the racing world in January he was ‘looking forward to Facile Vega more than any other horse in years,’ after six in a row, all at odds on.
He would be ‘batting first’ for Closutton. But the way he ran on Sunday, he’s not even a night watchman.
Of the last 20 Supreme winners, 17 had won last time out. The three others scored in freak situations.
It is normal for novices who impress before Christmas to get turned over when the real racing happens in the New Year.
It is equally to be expected that among those relatively unexposed will be some who improve and leave the early winners behind.
But it is unusual for connections to crib the riding tactics on the beaten horse when they have an improver like L’Etait Temps winning off a fast pace, while the hot favourite ‘weakened, eased, stopped quickly.’
Those freak winners? I’m glad you asked. Arcalis (2005) and Menorah (2010) won on an unusually sound surface.
As for Labaik (2017), his form going into the race was RR11RR0 when R = refused to race. He was described in the form book as ‘a serial offender at the start.’
Facile verdict: If Willie Mullins is still so sure of Facile Vega – that L’Etait Temps won by using his abundant stamina after a too-fast 2m race – then he will switch L’Etait Temps to the Ballymore (2m 5f), won’t he now.
PUT A SOCK IN IT
⭕ 2.05 Southwell Gabriel’s Getaway (won yesterday) predictable defection has shaken up the Betdaq Betting Exchange market and made the race look a little easier. No surprise to see Here We Have It at the forefront of the betting given his course and distance win last time out but he ran in snatches that day and is up a further 4lb. He wouldn’t be an immediate choice for a horse I’d want to back at short odds.
Onesoc is a hurdles winner here and now needs to do it over fences off the same mark. He struggles to see out any trip longer than the minimum but showed his first glimmer of promise over fences at Sedgefield last time out when third in a similar event. Hopefully the quicker ground forecast today will also help him as well as the less testing track.
Ardmayle would win this 20 lengths on his best form of old but the 11-year-old doesn’t seem as quick. That said, there was promise here from him in November after a lengthy break and he could still play a part if back on fresh legs after another break.
TYRONE FOR HAGGAS
⭕ 8.00 Kempton This class 2 handicap is by far the best race of the night and includes a fast-track ticket to the AW Championships for the winning horse. It also throws up horses that have placed form in the St Leger and the Ebor – not bad for a Wednesday night!
I’m expecting that winner to be Earl Of Tyrone who makes his debut for William Haggas. The ex-Irish trained runner (exchanged hands for 300,000 Guineas) has plenty of class as he showed when finishing third in the Ebor at York behind Trawlerman last year – so won’t lack anything in the stamina department.
The 136 day absence shouldn’t be a problem either as he’s run well after a break previously and the Haggas yard are being very selective and accurate with their runners at present.
Berkshire Rocco is also a classy individual who was only beaten a neck in the 2020 St Leger. He gained a first all-weather win at Southwell last time out and looks the obvious threat to the nap.
JIMBO TO FLY HOME
⭕ 8.30 Kempton One certainty if attending Kempton is seeing planes on the flight path into Heathrow. It could be Jimbo rather than Jumbo tonight though as Big Jimbo is taken to follow up on his win here last week.
Gary Moore has him back slightly in trip and I’m expecting the six-year-old to continue to make up for lost time as he missed the whole of 2022.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.05 Southwell (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win ONESOC
8.00 Kempton (win 10, nap)
BET 5pts win EARL OF TYRONE
8.30 Kempton (win 10)
BET 4pts win win BIG JIMBO
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