COUNTDOWN TO SUNDAY’S ARC: More facts and figures and a form guide to the top five home defenders in Sunday’s Arc de Triomphe. Which do you choose: Look De Vega, Sosie or the Fabre dark horses?
FOUR FANCIES FOR DAQMAN: Two races at Kempton tonight analysed and two outsiders – one at Catterick earlier – as Daqman tries to get back on track and hit a 36-1 double.
FRENCH HIGH FIVE IN THE ARC
LOOK DE VEGA (Yann Lerner, 3) Sire: Lope De Vega; dam’s sire High Chaparral (Epsom and Curragh Derby winner; third in the Arc).
The French Derby winner who is son of a French Derby winner is strongly fancied to overturn his defeat by Sosie in the Prix Niel trial.
It was his first race for three months and only his fourth in all. He was not quite at peak and got tired at the business end of the race, with his trainer admitting afterwards: ‘It has been all about the Arc!’
SOSIE (Andre Fabre, 3) Sire: Sea The Stars, Guineas, Derby and Arc winner; dam’s sire, Shamardal, French Guineas and Derby winner.
Third to Look De Vega in the French Derby but, after taking the Grand Prix de Paris in July, returned to Longchamp last month on Arc Trials Day and avenged the Chantilly defeat, eased down, from Delius and Look de Vega in the Prix Niel.
DELIUS (Jean-Claude Rouget, 3) Sire: Frankel; dam’s sire, Daylami. Hat-trick landed in the Spring, twice a winner at 1m 4f.
Beaten favourite, third in the Grand Prix de Paris, just over two lengths behind Sosie, and split Sosie and Look De Vega in the Niel. Has improved with every run.
MQSE DE SEVIGNE (Andre Fabre, 5m) Sire: Siyouni (sire of Arc winner Sotsass) Six wins out of seven; not raced at 1m 4f but half–sister to Grand Prix de Paris winner, Meandre.
Form 2221121111; improved with age. Group-1 winner of Jean Romanet (twice), Prix Rothschild and d’Ispahan.
SEVENNA’S KNIGHT (Andre Fabre, 4) Sire: Camelot out of a Galileo mare. Winner at 1m 6f (twice) and 1m 7f+ (three times); stayer on fast and soft ground, including Prix Royal Oak, but deep ground would give him an edge; capable of sprinting off a strong pace.
🇫🇷 ARC DE TRIOMPHE: STATS AND FORM
♦️ COUNTRIES with Arc winners (this century): France 11, England 7, Ireland 4, Germany 2
♦️ LEADING TRAINERS with runners: Mqse De Sevigne, Sevenna’s Knight, Sosie (Andre Fabre 8 Arc winners); Auguste Rodin, Continuous, Los Angeles, Luxembourg, Opera Singer (Aidan O’Brien 2); Delius (Jean-Claude Rouget 2).
♦️ LEADING TRAINERS this season: (France) Jean-Claude Rouget 138; Andre Fabre 126, Francis-Henri Graffard 122; (England) Andrew Balding 145, David O’Meara 106, William Haggas 105, Karl Burke 102, Charlie Johnston 101; (Ireland) Aidan O’Brien 104
♦️ LEADING JOCKEYS (Arc winners) Cristian Demuro 2, Christophe Soumillon 2, Ryan Moore 1, Stephene Pasquier 1.
♦️ LEADING JOCKEYS THIS SEASON (France): Maxime Guyon 197, Mickael Barzalona 160, Alexis Pouchin 126, Cristian Demuro 114; (England) Oisin Murphy 190, Rossa Ryan 166, Billy Loughnane 128, Hollie Doyle 115, Tom Marquand 111; (Ireland) Colin Keane 88, Billy Lee 80, Ryan Moore 63, Shane Foley 63, Dylan Brown McMonagle 58
♦️ AGE OF ARC WINNER (this century): 3yo 13; 4yo 8, 5yo 3.
SEDGEMOOR LOOKS UNEXPOSED
⭕ 5.10 Kempton: Chalk Mountain has been beaten five times on Kempton Polytrack and his back-to-back wins have been on Tapeta in class 5, pushing him up to class 4 here. Wind op and tongue-tie have helped.
Bell Shot is up in the ratings for improvement on turf but hasn’t won on AW since March. Ayr Harbour hasn’t won a race since January 2021.
Sedgemoor has not been fancied as a winner (10-1 Haydock in June) or a loser (18-1 Newbury the last day). But the win at Haydock was in his first handicap and his recent return was on heavy ground under a claimer. Unexposed and Sean Levey back today. BETDAQ 11.0 taken.
Wind surgery didn’t seem to help Respectful at Beverley, so that has been tweaked, with cheekpieces added and Oisin Murphy called in. All smacks of desperation.
BURKE WITH KEMPTON RAIDER
⭕ 5.45 Kempton: We leap into a class 2 sprint, with Willem Twee representing a stable which has won this race twice in the last six seasons. It would be a race hat-trick for stall 2.
With Oisin Murphy in the saddle, all looks set for a punt on this Listed-level scorer but the form of the Cambridgeshire winning trainer Karl Burke (1-2-3 in the Ayr Gold Cup) will make them nervous here tonight with a solo starter after two runners in the North at Musselburgh and one at Catterick.
His three-year-old Night Raider, one of a full book of Kempton rides for Tom Marquand, has raced in much higher grade and lines up 2-2 on AW as a 7f winner from the front. BETDAQ 4.4.
We know veteran Equilateral as a big-field performer, best at 5f, and Charles Hills has not been in great form this year (currently 0-18).
Go Bears Go is the enigma of the race, back with David Loughnane after an unsuccessful spell with Wesley Ward and his flying machines last year.
The entire has travelled to Deauville and the Curragh for Group races but has actually scored only in small fields in 2022 and his yard is currently 0-15.
MURPHY IS BACK ON 9.3 SHOT
DAQMAN’S 36-1 DOUBLE : Monsieur Kodi (3.55 Catterick) is down three grades and given a go at 7f after a good finish in the Ayr Bronze Cup, second in near-side group out of gate 22 but no chance with far side (result by stall 8-2-9). BETDAQ 4.9.
Oisin Murphy is called in for David Menuisier’s sole starter of the day, Louis Quatorze (6.20 Kempton), trying different tactics after the pair tried to make all into the final furlong at Newbury in August. Betdaq Betting Exchange 9.3.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win double
3.55 Catterick (win 20)
BET 5pts win MONSIEUR KODI
6.20 Kempton
BET 2.4pts win LOUIS QUATORZE
5.10 Kempton (win 20, win 10 place nap)
BET 2pts win and 5pts place SEDGEMOOR
5.45 Kempton (win 17)
BET 5pts win NIGHT RAIDER
BET 5pts win (saver) WILLEM TWEE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
