ANOTHER PIN-HIGH STROKE FROM DAQMAN: Daqman’s microscopic look at the Exeter veterans’ race yesterday found the form of Pineau De Re ‘disguised’. Pineau De Re (WON 11-4) waited in the wings and scored with his head in his chest.
SUPER 6.0 MORNING VALUE: It was another winner for BETDAQ, with Daqman taking a big-value 6.0 on the people’s exchange at morning offers. This followed 2.3 about his winning odds-on nap on Monday.
SO FAST TRACK TO BETDAQ: It’s just as it says in the racehead for tonight’s big feature at Kempton Park: ‘Winners are welcome at BETDAQ.’ The people’s exchange guarantees £19,000 for this Fast-Track qualifier.
12.30 Lingfield La Estrella made it 15 from 16 at Southwell last time for win number 23 on AW, two short of China Castle’s record at the turn of the century.
Estrella, who has failed in four tries at Lingfield, has frightened off all bar three opponents this afternoon, but this is 2m and Bollin Judith has won off 112 over hurdles.
She is on a Flat mark of 80, identical to her last success on the level, and officially has 6lb in hand of La Estrella, with Jamie Spencer booked at the start of his two-meeting stint of six rides today.
The 5.6 on Bollin Judith on BETDAQ this morning, against 1.55 La Estrella, in a 102% list in the orange was value.
12.50 Newbury Betting on novices – particularly on those carrying a penalty – is a dodgy business, as the history of this race reveals.
Two odds-on shots, including the top-class Grumeti, have been beaten in this one in the last three seasons.
It’s hard to see past the grey, Dawalan, half-brother to Daylami and Dalakhani, but his remaining at a low (class-4) level is an alarm bell against taking odds on.
1.20 Newbury Six consecutive favourites, five of them odds on, have won this, with Paul Nicholls’ form figures for the race 1111.
Sure enough, there’s an odds-on favourite trained by Nicholls this morning, Dark Lover. But his fall at Exeter in November, and 71-day absence since, is a worry.
Although Tony McCoy is back on song with five wins in six days, Festive Affair’s trainer, Jonjo O’Neill, is still struggling with just one success in three weeks or so.
The 140-rated hurdler Brick Red made a good start to chasing, never off the bridle at Plumpton 10 days ago, and Venetia Williams continues her great run, currently four out of seven (all in the frame).
At this morning’s 10-11 Dark Lover and 6-5 Brick Red, you takes your pick, with their close proximity in the market suggesting a close contest, with both horses in play right to the line.
1.50 Newbury Nicky Henderson is 11140 in this, two of them reaching 133 and 144 ratings over hurdles and more over fences later on, including the RSA winner, Trabolgan.
Favourites have won six out of seven, with the Henderson (Full Shift) narrowly fronting the market (at 9.35 this morning) over Brother Brian, as the withdrawal of Zulu Oscar was announced.
Both have to give 7lb. That’s been done four times out of nine but last year Uxizandre and Imperial Leader, at 6-4 and 7-4, so in similar market circumstances to this morning’s, could not give the weight to Chiberta King.
If I was thinking of taking such prices on today’s race, I’d be worried about Herons Heir, from a yard which had a huge Christmas bonus from their Ladbroke Hurdle winner, Willow’s Saviour. He was 9.6 on BETDAQ at the time of writing.
2.25 Newbury No winners of a double-figure age in the decade (30 have tried and failed in the race’s recent history), and Restless Harry has to bounce back to buck the trend after bad mistakes the last twice.
In fact, he’s never been nearer than 18 lengths off the winner in his last nine starts, unless you count his last of three in a novices’ chase at Wetherby in April.
His CD win 13 months ago was in class 2 and he’s run in hurdles and chases at Graded level but he’s never won a handicap.
Financial Climate and Railway Dillon are the obvious alternatives but both have to put back-to-back wins together off higher marks.
And Duke Of Monmouth is my outsider of the day at 25.0 on BETDAQ this morning. ‘Duke’ bounced last time after winning at Uttoxeter and, if this were a hurdle, would be well in with the two market leaders.
5.25 Kempton (£500 Free Bets At Betdaq Handicap) The three runnings of this have all gone to stall 3, and it’s hard to ignore the Wigham punt this morning on first-time-gelded Cathedral, 4.1 from stall one as I write, though paper forecast 16-1.
5.55 Kempton (Betdaq The Sports Betting Exchange Handicap) Laura Mongan’s stable form in this race is 1010, and her Norfolk Sky was just touching 4-1 this morning.
The five-times AW winner takes on Icebuster (0-14) and 97-days-absent First Warning, having his first run for Tim Pitt.
6.25 Kempton (Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq Conditions Stakes) This is the big one, with £19,000 on offer, and a guaranteed place in the Good Friday three-year-old championships.
Qatar Racing wants that prize, and Alutiq (2.7 this morning) is one of their top contenders. The Lowther Stakes fifth was last seen in the Cheveley Park and won her only AW start, her debut here at Kempton in April.
I understand that Jamie Spencer asked for the ride, a redeeming mission after being hampered in a Listed at Salisbury in September, won by 1,000 Guineas contender, Joyeuse.
Alutiq herself has pretensions to Guineas grandeur (entered in the Irish 1,000) but paddock judges last year regarded her as lacking scope, so it will be interesting to see how she looks pre-parade here.
6.55 Kempton (Betdaq 1st UK Race Commission Free Handicap) Stalls 1, 3, 4 (twice) and 5 have taken five of the last six runnings of this with a double-figure field, and front-running Tijuca should take the low numbers clear.
It’s a poor field, with Minimee’s preference for soft turf or the deeper AW surfaces, and Birdie Queen unlucky with the draw in 13 after landing stall one the last three times.
Adam Kirby might just hold on with Tijuca (offers of 12.5) but Luke Morris has an interesting ride on Pour La Victoire (7.6). Could I want for two better jocks for a dutch?
DAQMAN’S BETS (win bets staked to win 20 each)
BET 4.3pts win BOLLIN JUDITH (12.30 Lingfield)
BET 2.3pts win HERONS HEIR (1.50 Newbury)
BET 0.8pts win and 3pts place (outsider of the day) DUKE OF MONMOUTH (2.25 Newbury)
BET 6.6pts win (nap) CATHEDRAL (5.25 Kempton)
BET 6.6pts win NORFOLK SKY (5.55 Kempton)
BET 11.5pts win ALUTIQ (6.25 Kempton)
BET 3pts win POUR LA VICTOIRE plus 1.7pts win and 3pts place TIJUCA (6.55 Kempton)
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