WIN GOLD FOR CHRISTMAS: Daqman’s Christmas puzzle comes early today. Let’s go down memory lane: find the winner of Saturday’s December Gold Cup at Cheltenham from the trends in the last 42 years and the results of the November and December golds in the last two seasons.
A PENALTY KICK: DAQMAN has an an early pick on Wednesday in the 12.20 at Hexham. A genuine ‘winner without a penalty’.
SEEING DOUBLE AT CHELTENHAM
Old into the new. Just 127 yards make a difference between the November Gold Cup (2m 4f old course) at Cheltenham and the December Gold Cup (2m 4f 127yd new course) there on Saturday.
Only Pegwell Bay (1988) for Tim Forster and Exotic Dancer (2006) for Jonjo O’Neill have won both in the same season.
But there have been winners of both races in different years: Fifty Dollars More (1982 old and 1983 new), Coole Cody (2020 old and 2021 new), Beau Ranger (1984 new, 1987 old), Another Coral (1991 old and 1992 new), Dublin Flyer (1994 new, 1995 old), Fondmort (2002 new, 2003 old).
Just two have won Saturday’s race more than once, Poquelin (2009-10) and Frodon (2016-18), both trained by Paul Nicholls. Last year’s winner, Fugitif (Richard Hobson), tries to do that trick again.
Il Ridoto (Paul Nicholls) bids to follow up his November Gold with a second gold on Saturday, and stablemate Stage Star (2023 winner on the old course) tries to win on the new course one year on. But it’s not that simple.
When the 2023 November gold was won by Stage Star (official rating 155), Il Ridoto (144) was 12 lengths third and Fugitif (153) fourth.
The December gold that year was won by Fugitif (151) by a short-head from Il Ridoto (143), with Grandeur D’Ame 10 lengths behind the winner in fourth.
Last month, the gold on the old course was won by Il Ridoto (141) by 4.5 lengths from Ga Law (155) with Madara (141) more than three lengths further back fourth and Fugitif (152) fifth.
Now look at Saturday’s card and form and see how your pick checks out with Daqman’s verdict on the day.
A PENALTY KICK?
⭕ 12.20 Hexham Heritier is a genuine winner without a penalty! He relished similar conditions at Carlisle last week when winning a conditional riders event and it’s no surprise to see connections get the seven-year-old out again quickly with Sean Quinlan taking over in the saddle from the conditional rider.
It was the manner of his success at Carlisle that was particularly eye-catching. He had plenty to do when still last three out but was travelling all over them and in the end won going away. He’s some way off his career high handicap mark and I think he has just got himself well handicapped again – soft ground being a huge additional positive.
Main danger on the Betdaq Betting Exchange is Forest Blaze who ran well enough over the two mile trip on his handicap debut when third last month. The handicapper has dropped him a couple of pounds but I’m very concerned about the ground. His last effort came on good but his form on more testing to date has been very disappointing.
It’s not often you see a hat-trick seeker north of 20/1 in the betting but we have an example here with Kinder Kid who won back to back soft ground races at Wetherby over three miles. In a modest race I wouldn’t be surprised to see him out perform those odds, despite the 258 day absence and for tiny stakes will take some insurance against the main selection.
EY UP, IT’S EYDON
⭕ 7.10 Kempton (Wild Flower Listed Stakes) I was expecting Eydon to be odds-on for this mile and a half contest as he is comfortably rated the best on official ratings.
Oisin Murphy rides for the first time and Eydon was classy enough to win the Listed Feilden Stakes at Newmarket in April when he beat the Andrew Balding trained favourite Masekala comfortably.
Ironically Andrew Balding now trains Eydon after he switched from the Roger Varian yard and the five-year-old seems to have retained his form judged by his first two starts for his new yard.
He has previous experience and decent runs on the all-weather and can see off the challenge of the three-year-olds who are coming into this on the back of lengthy campaigns whereas Eydon still looks relatively fresh.
SPOILING THE PARTY
⭕ 7.40 Kempton Duke Of Oxford won this last year, comes into this on the back of another course and distance win but is priced accordingly and I’m in no rush to back him off a 8lb higher mark than 12 months ago.
I much prefer Cool Party whose own course and distance record of 2114 is not too shabby and on better terms has chances of turning around the length and a quarter margin that he was beaten by Duke Of Oxford last time.
He is my second selection tonight for which Oisin Murphy is in the saddle for the first time.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
12.20 Hexham (win 10, win 30)
BET 5.6pts win HERITIER
BET 1.2pts win KINDER KID
7.10 Kempton (win 10, nap)
BET 8.3pts win EYDON
7.40 Kempton (win 20)
BET 3.6pts win COOL PARTY
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