LINCOLN CONTENDERS BATTLE FOR PREMIO SCALP: Flat racing steals the show with tonight’s star prize, a £19,000 BETDAQ conditions race featuring Premio Loco – 31 appearances at Group level – against four horses all entered in the Lincoln Handicap.
47.0 and 22.0 OUTSIDERS IN BETDAQ HANDICAPS: Punters love to get their teeth into a meaty handicap and there are no less than five on the fabulous BETDAQ card, in which Daqman picks outsiders at 47.0 and 22.0.
5.20 Kempton Park (Betdaq – The Sports Betting Exchange – Handicap) Only gates 1, 2 and 3 have won this, emphasising yet again the value of a rails draw for a comfy ‘posi’ as they go right-hand down from stalls placed on the inside of the track.
Having said that, Miguel Grau won a class-5 over CD two months back from the 12 stall ‘with the choke out.’ He’s never missed the frame since he was gelded and is so highly regarded that he’s started favourite four races in row.
He failed to step up to class 4 when held up at Lingfield last time out, so expect him to be up with the rails pace, and unlikely to trade better than his starting price.
Karam Albaari (in stall 1) looks high in the handicap but, in fact, has scored in a class 3 at Lingfield off today’s mark, after failing to hold Stevie Thunder over a furlong further in a BETDAQ handicap here in November.
‘Stevie’ could hold the topweight again at the revised terms but hasn’t done much to advertise the form since, albeit racing in higher grades.
Karam Albaari’s stablemate, CD-winner Mawaakef, has stall 3, visored for the first time after 14 months without a win but he has also raced in higher class – Listed, class 2 and class 3 – a lot of the time since that day.
Mark Johnston’s Busatto is lightly raced but the yard has had 15 losers – including five losing favourites – since it was last off the mark.
It’s two centuries ago since the real Squire Osbaldeston, the gambling Yorkshire sherriff, lost £200,000 on the turf (£18m in today’s money).
Squire Osbaldeston, the horse, has been favourite for three races in the last four, and won only one of them, so he owes, too; though he took his maiden impressively for Lady Cecil over this trip at Lingfield.
The Squire can be forgiven his next race on grass on the soft but form students will tell you that Stevie Thunder finished in front of him.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Four-year-olds are going for a hat-trick in this and I wanted split stakes Squire Osbaldeston and Miguel Grau, both well drawn, but the favourite was short this morning, so I backed Miguel with a stakes saver on the Squire.
6.20 Kempton Park (£500 Free Bets at Betdaq Handicap) The stats say you again need a four-year-old (they are 4-from-5 in this), something from the foot of the handicap: there’s been no winner carrying more than 8st 13lb.
Stalls 1, 2, 3 have also won this; so have 5 and 7 in the five years he race has been going. That’s another vote for the bottom pair, particularly with the stables of the two drawn best of all, Sole Danser and Shaunas Spoirit, both struggling for form.
Another four-year-old, first time handicapping Dutiful Son, has that ‘could be anything’ look and his style of running suggests that a ‘bad’ outside draw will actually help.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Michael Squance’s runners have all been in the frame in the last fortnight, so my one from the foot of the handicap is Harrogate Fair at 22.0 on BETDAQ this morning. Save on Dutiful Son.
7.20 Kempton Park (Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq Maiden Stakes) The stats are adamant: three-year-olds have won all five runnings of this, year on year, divided races and all. And 80% have been drawn in stalls 1, 3 and 4.
Bobby Benton was fancied but not wanted this morning were Al Hanyora in stall 4 for the Hannon yard (11.5 on BETDAQ) and Mr Soprano from stall one (24.0).
Trainer Lee Carter is in tremendous form, with 50% (4-from-8) in a five-day AW spell up to last Wednesday, and Next Stop (stall 2) could belie her huge 47.0 on BETDAQ, as my wild card of the night.
But the market insisted early on that there is a standout in the race, Born In Bombay, despite the eight draw, after his strong finish at Lingfield.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: ‘Bombay’ looks typical of an Andrew Balding, running green first time and set to take a big leap forward second time out. Hub of my Daq Multiples.
7.50 Kempton Park (Betdaq 1st UK Race Commission Free Commission) A £19,000 guarantee has brought out five one-time Pattern performers, led by Premio Loco, who has a staggering CV of 31 Group/Graded-race appearances.
The others have all attempted Listed level at one time or another, notably Don’t Call Me, who has swerved his long stint in Dubai of this time last year when he raced in handicaps and Group-2 races, all without success.
But he was never out of the first five, each time picking up for a ‘place’ what passes for first-prize money over here.
Emell has run five Listed seconds, including to Garswood in the Free Handicap and, at age four, should be the improver in today’s race. His target is said to be the Lincoln Handicap, won in the last five years by horses rated 90-104.
Emell is already on 105 and he’d be better off attacking this field, while he’s fresh and has forgotten the strain of racing (five seconds from six starts suggest he must be a bit of a ‘thinker.’)
Emell was a gamble for the Spring Cup at Lingfield first time up last season. Yes, second again, at 2-1 favourite.
David Nicholls’ Royal Hunt Cup fourth Don’t Call Me was second in the Doncaster Mile last Spring and his Lincoln Handicap entry off 102 looks interesting.
Premio Loco’s connections seem bent on retrieving the Winter Derby trophy which he won in 2012 first run back. His form figures after an absence are 1010410.
However, his poor Winter Derby effort last March suggests that he is getting slower to come to hand these days and, in fact, trainer Chris Wall hasn’t had a runner yet this year, so has no home marker for the 10-year–old.
Richard Hannon (Emell) has had just two AW winners in 2014, David Nicholls (Don’t Call Me) three, Karl Burke (Georgian Boy) four, and Seamus Durack one.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: There’s more than one a question mark over Premio Loco’s fitness and he’s giving 7lb, which means that Don’t Call Me and Emell surround him on the ratings.
Emell was put away in the second half of last season and, whatever his ‘kinks’, is persevered with as an entire. East Everleigh has had plenty of time to ’tweek’ his problems and, too high in the ratings for early-season handicaps, this conditions race is an ideal start.
A good run from Don’t Call Me, more suited to big fields, would put him in line for a crack at the Lincoln after last year’s second in the Mile and fine effort in the Royal Hunt Cup.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5.5pts win MIGUEL GRAU and 3.5pts win (stakes saver) SQUIRE OSBALDESTON (5.20 Kempton)
BET 1pt win and place HARROGATE FAIR and 2.8pts win (stakes saver) DUTIFUL SON (6.20 Kempton)
BET 0.5pts win and 2pts place NEXT STOP and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) BORN IN BOMBAY (7.20 Kempton)
BET 12pts win (nap) EMELL (7.50 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 2pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles Miguel Grau and Squire Osbaldeston (5.20 Kempton) with Born In Bombay (7.20 Kempton) and Emell (7.50 Kempton)
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