THE FIRST JUMPS SEASON SUPERNAP: Daqman nominates his first supernap of the season today. So far his special bets are: Value Challenge, Daqman 3, Pricewise 2; Lays Logic 0-1. Watch this space.
FORTUNE COOKIES UPDATE: First Daqman updates his Fortune Cookies, horses to follow with the big meetings in mind. One of them could be running at Aintree on Saturday, and he hopes for at least three at the Christmas meetings.
LONGER TRIP: LESS RISK
FORTUNE COOKIES: I warned against following the trial winners at Newbury and Fairyhouse; I certainly can’t have the Royal Bond form, though the winner, Statuaire, was nominated afterwards for the mares novices, for which she was cut to joint-favourite in most places.
Fil d’Or won the Juvenile Hurdle on the same card in only a fraction of a second slower time, and could be a Triumph Hurdle contender. But, more immediately, he looks like paying his way as a Fortune Cookie when he comes over to Chepstow for the Coral Welsh Grand National meeting at Christmas.
Statuaire got up to pip My Mate Mozzie after a stop-start race, so no wonder the Fil d’Or time was a virtual match.
But My Mate Mozzie was giving 7lb and cut out the donkey work more than once to inject some pace into the race.
Jonbon booked his place in the Supreme Novices with an impressive victory at Newbury in a race his trainer, Nicky Henderson, has won many times before, including with the champion Buveur d’Air.
Good Risk At All was let down by his jumping but kept on well and a longer trip will see him in a better light. His trainer Sam Thomas, famous for riding Kauto Star and Denman, knows that upping him in trip will allow him to jump better.
Fortune Cookies to date:
▪️ A Plus Tard (Henry de Bromhead): Savills Chase, Leopardstown, December 28
▪️ Blazing Khal (Charles Byrnes): Next race to be announced.
▪️ Bravemansgame (Paul Nicholls): Next race to be announced; Ryanair Chase, Cheltenham, March 17
▪️ Fil d’Or (Gordon Elliott): Chepstow, December 27
▪️ Good Risk At All (Sam Thomas): Next race to be announced.
▪️ Jonbon (Nicky Henderson): Kempton, December 26
▪️ Protektorat (Dan Skelton): Many Clouds Chase, Aintree, Saturday.
▪️ Vanillier (Gavin Cromwell): Fortune Cookies landed a 14-1 strike with this one at Cheltenham in March. He’s found his form again and is now one for long-distance chases.
THE VALUE IS VANITAS
⭕ 12.50 Lingfield David O’Meara brought two down here from North Yorkshire last Friday and landed a 38-1 double.
After more success at Newcastle yesterday, he’s back down Surrey with a previous CD winner in a solo raid on Lingfield.
Vanitas broke her maiden here at around this time last year and has since scored at Pontefract and Newmarket (July).
She’s finished in the first four 11 times from 13 starts, and deserves this try two grades higher than her usual company.
Lovely Breeze does best at 6f and Cry Havoc has to give the selection 9lb, so the danger may be Amber Island, though she still looks a bit high in the handicap, after winning off 74 and 80, so all depends on Laura Pearson utilising her claim.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 8.5 Vanitas
VENTURE WELL PRIMED
⭕ 2.50 Haydock Ten-year-olds have a big advantage in these veterans’ handicaps at this time of year, and Prime Venture can land this one, a chase they won last year.
Evan Williams took the big staying hurdle here with Dans Le Vent a couple of weeks back. At his previous local meeting at Ffos Las, he had prepped Prime Venture over hurdles.
The plan, to bring this Coral Welsh Grand National fourth (2019) and fifth (2020) back to 3m off 5lb lower. Obvious danger: Aso, twice runner-up in the Ryanair but giving away a lump of weight here.
BETDAQ value 9.0 Prime Venture, 3.75 Aso
SISKANEY’S A SUPERNAP
⭕ 5.30 Kempton Charlie Appleby has surely found a black-type race for Siskany, winner here 14 months or so back as a novice.
First foal of a Dansili half-sister to the Group-2 middle distance winner Dartmouth, ‘he’ seemed to be going places after back-to-back wins in the Spring but had to be gelded after disappointing connections in top handicaps at Royal Ascot and Goodwood (Group 3).
Didn’t like the soft ground recently at Newbury but his October form at Newmarket is now an eye-popping read: gave 21lb and a beating to Farhan who followed up by taking the November Handicap last month.
Outbox was beaten at this Listed level on this course the last day and, though he’s won one since, has not been fancied in the market since scoring 12 starts again at the Doncaster Lincoln Handicap meeting.
Aced It also won at that meeting but has risen 11lb in the handicap since for three seconds and a third at two and three levels below today’s Listed.
The grey entire Alignak’s claim to fame is being spanked 12lb for running second to Trueshan in the summer of 2020. He’s managed to win since but has left Sir Michael Stoute for a stable that is unlikely to punish him first time with future handicaps in mind.
Fox Tal is a bridesmaid extraordinary. He’s dropped the bouquet 10 times since the Spring with form figures of 2302033324 when six times he was ‘expected’ to catch it at odds between 7-2 favourite and 11-2.
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.50 Lingfield (win 12)
BET 1.5pts win VANITAS
2.50 Haydock (win 20, win 10)
BET 3.5pts win PRIME VENTURE
BET 3.5pts win ASO
5.30 Kempton (supernap)
BET 20pts win SISKANY
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
