LINCOLN DAY COUNTDOWN: Part One of Daqman’s stats and facts guide to Saturday’s opening of the English Flat season at Doncaster features four top races. The Lincoln Handicap is previewed later in the week.
SUPERNAP TONIGHT: Daqman has tips at both Market Rasen and Newcastle this afternoon, and a supernap at Kempton tonight.
CAN BILL TURN A CORNER?
⭕ 1.50 Doncaster, Saturday (Brocklesby Stakes) Bill Turner used to be the Brocklesby wizard – he trained six winners of the race – and his Somerset yard overlooking King Arthur’s Cadbury Castle tries to restore the old magic with No Sinner.
Bill has booked William Carson for the son of an Oasis Dream sire out of a Kyllachy mare. Must have looked good at the yearling sales, as he made more than three times his foal price.
STALLS: Now he needs the luck of the draw: stalls 2 and 3 have together won 4-9.
⭕ 2.25 Doncaster (Spring Mile) AGE: Four-year-olds 6-7. No outright favourite has won this in the decade.
STALLS: those watching the race hoping for a guide to the Lincoln draw, get this! Only one match, which was last year.
*Spring Mile result by stall: 16, 15, 8, 4, 6, 1, 3, 21, 1
*Lincoln Handicap winner: 3, 3, 15, 22, 20, 10, 17, 10, 4
⭕ 3.00 Doncaster (Cammidge Trophy) Charles Hills, who won this in 2021, has booked James Doyle for Garrus, a Group-3 winner twice at Deauville.
The Al Kazeem colt Saint Lawrence, Group placed three times for Roger Varian, has been gelded during the winter break.
⭕ 4.10 Doncaster Mile AGE: Four and five together 8-10. STALLS: Seven winners from gates 1 to 5. FAVOURITES: Three out of four, all odds on.
TRAINER: Richard Hannon has won twice in the last five years and has Tacarib Bay and top-rated Lusail to choose from.
(3.35 Lincoln Handicap: see ABC guide later in the week).
VIVA THE SKELTON VALUE
⭕ 2.35 Market Rasen A class-3 chase with the leader of the pack off 12st, Skytastic, having had three seriously bad runs since winning a hurdle 13 months back.
Grandads Cottage has his first chase in open company; he’s had only six races as a novice – hurdles and fences – with ‘leg issues’.
Olly Murphy (13-44 strike rate) has done well to get two wins out of him but you are betting that he can continue to stand on his own two feet again after a shorter break this time.
Dino Velvet has managed only 1-12 over fences and is a 10-year-old now. The King of May has dropped 11lb in the last year but that may not be enough.
Viva Lavilla met some highflyers over hurdles (including second to Lossiemouth in a Grade 2). Handled with care over fences the last day after a fall at Kempton, and could improve for the Skeltons in first-time cheekpieces.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 3.85 Viva Lavilla
READY MADE FOR ADRIMEL
⭕ 3.00 Newcastle Adrimel has to have the heavy ground and has to have the headgear on. It was a while before Tom Lacey got the combination right.
Then he won two races on soft-heavy at Haydock. Now that is what I call ‘mud,’ and he’s shown the ability to front-run giving weight away in a small field.
It’s a long, long time ago that Castle Rushen won two novice hurdles on heavy, but cheekpieces might help and Nicky Richards’ string is striking at 35%.
Miah Grace has similar form way back and Jedd O’Keeffe has decided to try visors to return him to that old form.
It’s a similar story with Danny Boy, who could revive after wind ops, and Aramax won his hurdles three years back.
In the end you wouldn’t wish this race on any of them; no way is it class 3. Hopefully, Adrimel can carry my money and the big weight at 3.9 on BETDAQ this morning.
MOUNT SUPERNAP RATING
⭕ 7.30 Kempton After that class 3 that isn’t, we have a Kempton class 2 which is fair enough.
Firstly, I don’t like repetition of names, even half a century on. Mount Athos was trained by John Dunlop to finish third in Sir Ivor’s 1968 Epsom Derby.
James Tate trains this Mount Athos, who impressed here at Kempton in October, beating a subsequent dual winner on the course.
Improvement for the winter break could see him defy top weight under James Doyle and go on to better things.
He has a two-year advantage over the exposed Dubai Station who’s already won in class 2, franking the quality of this race, which is further enhanced by Goodwood class-2 scorer Vafortino.
It really is quite a contest and the form of the stables is good: James Tate 2-4 (50%), Stuart Williams for Dubai Station 2-8 (25%) and Kevin Phillipart De Foy (Vafortino) are all in fine fettle.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.35 Market Rasen (win 10)
BET 3pts win VIVA LAVILLA
3.00 Newcastle (win 10)
BET 3pts win ADRIMEL
7.30 Kempton (supernap)
BET 20pts win MOUNT ATHOS
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