QUALITY CHRISTMAS BOX OF 11 RACECARDS: Boxing Day was the day for opening presents, and it certainly seems appropriate to the quality content of 11 meeting in England and Ireland today, featuring King George, Christmas Hurdle, Rowland Meyrick and Lincolnshire National.
REAL BETTING VALUE IN BIG BETDAQ PRICES: Unwrapping the goodies, Daqman searches for value, which is a daily gift from BETDAQ, with its low overrounds and bigger prices. You make and take the offers so, as they say these days, it’s not reality it’s REAL. Daqman leads Pricewise 10-5, and that’s the reality of it. Can these four outsiders give him a hit?
HOGGING THE 12.5 BETDAQ OFFERS
15.5 CRIEVEHILL A ‘HIDDEN HORSE’
ROSE 14.5 BUT IS TWO FROM THREE
THERE’S A SHOCK IN THE AIR AT 18.0
GOLD IS DAQMAN PICK TO PAY FOR THE DAY: Daqman’s horses to follow include Native River and Politologue in the King George but the list holds his best bet of the day to pay for his wild-card outsiders: Inca Gold (12.50 Limerick).
HOGGING THE 12.5 BETDAQ OFFERS
1.20 Kempton Nicky Henderson, who has won this three times in eight years, lines up two enigmatic candidates in Lough Derg Spirit and Turtle Wars.
Only one seven-year-old and none aged four have won this so they are the right age but placed in different parts of the handicap.
The worry about Lough Derg Spirit is that he’s been first or second after a break three times but never followed up, though maybe his wind op will help. Turtle Wars struggled on his chasing debut at Sandown recently, whereas Glen Forsa hardly put a foot wrong.
Gary Moore (Dell Oro) let me down with Not Never and Benatar on Saturday but David Pipe (Warthog) pulled a Christmas cracker for me with Daklondike (WON 6-1).
Despite two wind ops, Envoye Special remains festooned with headgear (hood and tongue-tie) and it would be a bad race if he won it. I fancy Warthog to make all. Someone tried to clear the 12.5 in the BETDAQ orange this morning: I admit I was hogging it!
15.5 CRIEVEHILL A ‘HIDDEN HORSE’
2.10 Wetherby (Rowland Meyrick Chase) When Dan Skelton won last year with Get On The Yager (rated 133), Sue Smith’s Wakanda, giving 11lb, just failed to get up after hitting the last (Baywing fifth).
Wakanda had split Definitly Red and Blaklion in a stronger running of the race the year before.
Today, as he bids for third time lucky, Wakanda has to give a stone to another Skelton animal, Captain Chaos, also aged seven and also racing off 133.
The Captain is a Wetherby winner on soft who crashed a stone down the handicap before returning to something like himself on the last day, runner-up in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle.
The winner that day at Newcastle? It was Lake View Lad by almost three lengths, though giving Captain Chaos 9lb. Now he gives 14lb.
If you want to go back to the Spring, Lake View Lad beat Crieve Hill a short-head at Haydock, giving 4lb. Now giving 2lb.
Crosspark and Takingrisks are both autumn winners and Allyson Monterg is not out of it at his best. So a hard race to call but a BETDAQ-value delight this morning (5.4 the field in a 102% overround). Crievehill is too big at 15.5, unexposed at the trip.
ROSE 14.5 BUT IS TWO FROM THREE
2.20 Market Rasen (Lincolnshire National) A 14.5 BETDAQ offer this morning, Emerald Rose’s form over 3m+ since he won here two years ago is 1441333313; his Market Rasen form 113.
Won the Norfolk National at Fakenham in the Spring (3m 5f), after being third in this Lincolnshire National (5lb higher now).
Late Romantic is still a novice. Zerachiel shot up the handicap after scoring at Haydock (3m 4f) in the Spring. Mortens Leam is 21lb higher for his two out of three in the autumn.
Global Dream has never won after a break and looks as if he’s prepping for his beloved Leicester early in the new year.
REVE COULD ROCK THE KHAN PLAN
2.20 Leopardstown (Racing Post Novice Chase) Supreme Novice Hurdle third Mengli Khan won his beginners’ chase at Punchestown a month ago but his jumping was novicey, and the runner-up flopped when favourite for a mares-only chase at Cork afterwards.
I had been expecting to put Mengli Khan in my Fortune Cookies for Cheltenham in March but reserved judgment until we’d seen him jump again, though trainer Gordon Elliott was happy with the outcome.
He will want Mengli Khan to win this because, though he’s scored on soft-heavy, today’s good ground and a fast pace is expected to help his jumping.
That sounds very much like Cheltenham in a normal year but today is a severe test in itself.
Ellie Mac has done nothing wrong but Rachael Blackmore rides the same stable’s Mind’s Eye who beat Willie Mullins’s Timi Roli at Wexford.
That Timi Roli rates only 127 suggests that the 138 for Mind’s Eye (tongue tie first time today) is a bit steep, Mullins having already slammed Mind’s Eye with Voix Du Reve at Galway.
If Voix Du Reve (BETDAQ 3.3) is anywhere near the 146 suggested by that collateral form, then he will be very hard to beat here.
Confirmation comes from his earlier seven lengths defeat of Hardline, who was 10 lengths behind Us And Them at Navan, after that one was nine lengths off Mind’s Eye at Wexford.
THERE’S A SHOCK IN THE AIR AT 18.0
2.30 Kempton (Christmas Hurdle) Buveur d’Air, who thrives on hard work, won this – and then another race in February – on the way to last year’s Champion Hurdle.
If the handicapper is right he’s more than a stone better horse than when taking his first championship in 2017 but wind surgery after his second success and again recently worries me.
I still feel that something will emerge to challenge him in March, but it’s unlikely to be any one of his opponents today (unless by default) because they are at least 20lb adrift in the ratings. But if the cap fits…particularly at 18.0 and a massive 3.05 the place!
IT’S ALL GOING BRISTOL FASHION
3.05 Kempton (King George V1 Chase) The 2016 winner, Thistlecrack was only fourth last year, turned over by Might Bite who, in turn, was well and truly stuffed by Native River’s finish in the Gold Cup.
Returned to a flat track and a shorter trip, he beat Bristol De Mai in the Aintree Bowl but returned very ring rusty in the Lancashire Chase at Haydock in November, a poor fifth.
The first three home, would you believe, were Bristol De Mai, Native River, Thistlecrack..
In such a mix of collateral form the usual way forward is to assume that there is no giant, no ‘monster’ among them and that, on the day – King George or Gold Cup – it’s a matter of the right horse for the right trip and ground.
The more general rule is always to go for the younger horse, the improver, when more than one fits the bill, unless it’s a mud bath; then the older horse may have more guts and experience.
So, in mild weather, I can’t have Thistlecrack. Why should a 10-year-old suddenly have the legs to overturn defeats by BOTH Might Bite and Bristol de Mai?
Native River has been beaten only twice in seven starts: on both occasions, the going was good.
We’re not sure that Politologue will stay until we see it happen. Ditto Waiting Patiently. So I’ll hitch my wagon to Bristol De Mai, huge at 9.0 in a 103%-overround BETDAQ orange.
DAQMAN’S BOXING DAY BETS
12.50 Limerick (supernap)
BET 20pts win INCA GOLD
1.20 Kempton (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4.25pts win WARTHOG
(win 10 a place: BET 3.25pts)
2.10 Wetherby (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.5pts win CRIEVEHILL
(win 10 a place: BET 3.5pts)
2.20 Leopardstown (win 20)
BET 8.5pts win VOIX DU REVE
2.20 Market Rasen (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.75pts win EMERALD ROSE
(win 10 a place: BET 3.25pts)
2.30 Kempton (win 20 and place win 10)
BET 1.2pts win and 4pts place IF THE CAP FITS
3.05 Kempton (win 30)
BET 3.75pts win BRISTOL DE MAI
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