DAQMAN THREE OUT OF THREE: 47 POINTS UP IN TWO DAYS: Winner-a-day Daqman, who had stepped up to two a day with 11 strikes in a week, yesterday went turbo charged with three out of three for a super Tuesday of 29 points profit, including a fourth nap in the eight days.
Tuesday: profit 29 points
✔️ WON 6-4 VALSHEDA (nap)
✔️ WON 3-1 BOND ANGEL
✔️ (WIN) 3rd 10-1 JOHN CONSTABLE (place bet)
Monday: profit 18.40
✔️ WON 1-1 UP FOR PAROL (nap)
✔️ WON 15-8 DOCPICKEDME
CHELTENHAM DAY 2: EVERY RACE IS PURE VALUE ON BETDAQ: Join Daqman today as he continues his search for winners at Cheltenham next week. Your bets are pure value every day at the meeting. You deal direct as you bet with your counterpart punters who make the offers: there’s no adjustment of the odds on BETDAQ and the news of 0% COMMISSION AT THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL is the icing on the cake.
FESTIVAL STATS: RACE BY RACE
Where do the Cheltenham winners come from? Which are best and worst races for favourites? Where would you logically look for lays? Here are the stats and facts for every day at the festival.
Today Daqman moves on to the Champion Chase and Coral Cup next Wednesday with 0% COMMISSION AT THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL. It’s your guide to ratings, trainers, form, age, weight and a special feature on favourites.
▪️ LAYS LOGIC: Favourites of 9-2 or shorter in Wednesday races which show moderate results for the market leader – races 3, 4, 6 and 7 – lost 11 times out of 15.
⭕ 1.20 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 17 (Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle) Two favourites up out of three; four in 11 years; only one winner’s SP in double figures. Ages: Just one horse older than six has won since 1974.
Trainers: Irish six out of seven, including Willie Mullins (2). Ratings (last six years): 146, 155, 147, 155, 147, 156. Level weights.
The last 11 winners started out in Irish Points or bumpers. Ten had won over at least 2m 4f; nine in a Graded hurdle.
▪️ Not a lays race
⭕ 1.55 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 17 (Broadway Novices Chase) Three favourites in six years; two at 4-1 SP in that time. Ages: 11 out of the last 14 were aged 7; and 12 out of the last 14 had won a Graded race; eight had already won at Cheltenham.
Trainers: Nicky Henderson (3); four Irish winners in the decade. Ratings: 156, 150, 154, 158, 155, 153. Level weights.
▪️ Not a lays race
⭕ 2.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 17 (Coral Cup) Sixteen consecutive favourites had been beaten until last year’s 5-1 winner, with 10 of the 12 most recent winners at double-figure odds up to 33-1.
Ages: Only three horses in 21 years have won when over the age of seven, and 10 of the last 11 had raced over hurdles no more than nine times, eight out of 11 at 2m 2f or further.
Trainers: Nicky Henderson (4) and four to the Irish. Ratings: 139, 149, 148, 143, 151, 140.
Weights: 10st 12lb to 11st 4lb have won four of the last five.
▪️ LAYS last five years: Tombstone (2017) 22nd of 23 at 7-2 fav.
⭕ 3.05 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 17 (Champion Chase) Four favourites have won in the last eight years; longest odds 11-1. Ages: between 7 and 10.
Trainers: Nicky Henderson (5 out of 9), Henry De Bromhead, Paul Nicholls (2). Ratings: 171, 170, 159, 170, 175, 165. Level weights.
Sixteen out of 18 winners had won at least five times over fences and had run at Cheltenham before; 10 of the last 11 had won a Grade 1. Irish or French bred took the prize in 14 of 18 years.
▪️ LAYS last five years: Un De Sceaux (2016) 2nd 4-6 fav; Douvan (2017) 7th 2-9 fav; Altior WON 1-1 fav (2018); Altior WON 4-11 fav (2019); Defi Du Seuil 4th 2-5 fav (2020)
⭕ 3.40 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 17 (Cross-Country) In the last nine years has produced winner (twice), second and third in the Grand National.
Two favourites won in the decade; two outsiders at 16-1 and 25-1. Ages: between 8 and 10 won 9-10. Horses aged 11+ have failed in 11 years out of 12.
Trainers: Enda Bolger (3). Ratings: 134, 148, 142, 150, 159, 152.
▪️ Not a lays race
⭕ 4.15 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 17 (Grand Annual Challenge Cup) Two favourites have won in the decade but most winners have been enormous prices: 66-1, 40-1, 28-1, 20-1. Ages: 7, 8, 9 (9 out of 11)
Trainers: Paul Nicholls (2). Ratings: 143, 140, 147, 150, 139, 147. Seven of the last eight winners had not scored over fences that season.
▪️ LAYS last five years: Rock The World (2016) 3rd 9-2 fav; Le Prezien 8th (2017) 7-2 fav; Magic Saint (2019) 10th 9-2 fav; Chosen Mate (2020) WON 7-2 fav. Note that Rock The World and Le Prezien both won the following year.
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 17 (Champion Bumper) SP: Two favourites have won in 11 seasons but most of the others have been big SP: 11-1, 14-1, 16-1 (twice), 25-1 (twice), 40-1.
Winner last time out 11-11. Ages 5 and 6 have won the last 10. Trainers: Willie Mullins (4) since 2012.
▪️ LAYS last five years: Augusta Kate (2016) 7th 7-2 fav; Cause Toujours (2017) 9th 9-2 fav; Acey Milan (2018) 4th 9-2 fav; Envoi Allen (2019) WON 2-1 fav; Appreciate It (2020) 2nd 15-8 fav
HAT-TRICK BECKONS FOR HARRY
3.55 Lingfield A Ladbrokes-sponsored six furlong dash at Lingfield where five of the eight runners were winners last time out – including the unbeaten pair Diligent Harry and Popmaster.
It’s hard to look beyond Diligent Harry who has really impressed in two starts – winning at Wolverhampton on debut and then bolting home by four and a half lengths at Kempton. It was a stunning performance when you also take into account the third horse was a further seven lengths adrift.
There’s further improvement to come surely and the starting handicap mark of 90 looks fair without being too punitive.
Popmaster is rated 6lb lower and has the same 2-2 profile but in his case the wins weren’t so convincing and he came from behind on both occasions after slow starts. In this better company the grey might not find that so easy and it’s possible he already needs further than 6f to show his optimum form.
A bigger danger may come from Bedford Flyer who is back after a break. He has a CV showing five times placed from seven starts including three wins and it’s interest to see him stepped up in trip today having stayed on well over 5f here back in October.
FAWNING OVER SELECTION
4.30 Lingfield The stayers in action over the marathon two mile trip and I wouldn’t be rushing to back BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE favourite Aleatoric who struggled under his new mark last time out when a beaten favourite.
He had previously won over course and distance in January beating Wemyss Point (takes him on again today) but this overall looks a deeper contest.
I like the look of the mare Aasleagh Fawn who made a promising enough start for trainer Michael Roberts over 1m 5f last time out having joined the yard from Gavin Cromwell.
She was nibbled at in the market that day (33/1 > 16/1) and only landed the place money close home suggesting the step up in trip will be ideal. I’ll go for a WIN 10 bet on both the win and place BETDAQ markets.
PHOENIX TO RISE TO OCCASION
4.45 Kempton Phoenix Star is taken to reverse last week’s form with Madrinho on 4lb better terms for a length beating.
It was a good effort from the Jessica Macey trained Phoenix Star who was reappearing after a short break and is preferred to the mare Silent Witness who might be best watched on her first start for Alice Haynes having joined the stable from Ed Walker’s yard.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points including place)
BET 4.3pts win (nap) DILIGENT HARRY (3.55 Lingfield)
BET 1.3pts win and 3.3pts place AASLEAGH FAWN (4.30 Lingfield)
BET 2.8pts win PHOENIX STAR (4.45 Kempton)
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