HOW NOT TO LOSE: CLASS KEY TO BETDAQ BETTING: Daqman today argues for a staking plan and attention to value in the punter-friendly BETDAQ markets. It’s what helped him to 241 points profit in nine days up to Sunday, and it works as a balancing act on days of just the odd winner.
WEATHER WOES: The weather continues to play havoc with the racing fixtures with Stratford on Saturday the latest to fall. There are three all-weather cards on Wednesday and DAQMAN has a recommended bet at each venue.
CREATE A BETDAQ VALUE BOOST
Class is always the key. Finding the turnkey form not so easy in the winter mud. But, apart from a blip at Cheltenham, the boy’s done good.
Now Daqman sets out his stall for a market place of better weather at Aintree, Punchestown and the Classic scene on the Flat.
Class Bets are staked to win 10 or 20 points in low-class races (class 4 and lower) but 20 or 30 points in class 3, plus targets of 50 and 100, in higher grades where runners are much more reliable.
Double Whammy When I Back to win 20 points, I may Lay to win 10 or to cover my win stakes in the same race (for a Double Whammy).
Similarly, I may have several win bets in one race, if the overround is very low, which it usually is on BETDAQ. I’m trying to win on the race not isolate the winner.
Cover The betting target is to arrange stakes and selections so that one winner covers the day’s total stakes, at least.
Nap The best bet of the day, always odds against in the BETDAQ orange when the column goes to Press. Staked to win 20 or 30 points at the morning offers available on BETDAQ.
Supernap Any price from 10.0 down to a seven-wins-you-four (4-7) return to stakes of 20 or 30 points on BETDAQ.
Bull’s-Eye-Bet In big races, on the day or ante-post, I shall stake to win 50 points. With offers of 11.0 and more, the bet will be win and place.
Ton-Up Bet Same scenario, staked to win 100, win and place likely.
Bonus Bet The trick is to decide what price a horse should be (after Aintree, I’ll look at creating your own market).
You should play up on offers that are too big but, as I also said earlier in the week, don’t be fooled by drifters or false prices, where there may be a problem behind the offer.
Early in the formation of the market, you could nick a crazy price but, if we’re talking mid-morning onwards, it could be tempting you to waste your wallet.
How to play up? Well, if you think a horse should be 10-1, you’d bet 10 points to win 100. Turn to the BETDAQ orange and, if the value offer (not false, not a drifter) is 20-1, you do NOT change your stake.
Your 10 points to win 100 will now earn you a bonus 100 and pay 200. Since the BETDAQ orange is already likely to be in low overround (we saw last week how you were 9% to 29% better off at Cheltenham), you win and you win and you win.
Better price and bigger return in a value area.
Bad favourites But always remember that a bad favourite (which you may oppose as a Lay) means that all other offers in the race are likely to constitute value, because of the low, low overround.
No wonder professional punters begin the day by looking for favourites to oppose. That’s another article to come after Aintree.
STORY HAS HAPPY ENDING AT LINGFIELD
It’s a triple header of all-weather on Wednesday after the turf cards at Catterick and Leopardstown were both called off due to waterlogged tracks.
There’s water in the works on Thursday too. Musselburgh is already off and Warwick is subject to a 2pm inspection today.
Friday’s card at Wetherby has already gone whilst Wexford is dependent on a 2pm inspection this afternoon.
Stratford’s card on Saturday has already been called off 🙁
One bet from each venue on Wednesday:
1.50 Southwell Dapper Man has been given a chance by the handicapper to make it third time lucky over course and distance.
He went down by only a neck to Archimedes last time and has been kept on the same mark of 58 and should again run his race.
He is preferred to Archie Stevens who, in contrast to the selection, has been put UP 3lb for being beaten a neck !!
5.15 Lingfield The best bet may come last on the Lingfield card with the progressive Night Story. The Godolphin owned runner, trained by Charlie Appleby, readily accounted for the 84 rated Yabass over course and distance last time out and should find plenty of improvement from that run on only his third racecourse appearance.
The John Gosden trained Antonian won well at Wolverhampton over a mile last time out and now steps up to a mile and a half which should suit whilst the other penalised runner, Technological, has more experience and was a solid enough course and distance runner-up last time out.
It’s a decent race but it really revolves around the expected improvement of Night Story who rates the days nap at around 2.48 on BETDAQ.
6.15 Kempton Warsaan showed plenty of ability as a two-year-old but ran his best race first time out and might be best caught fresh as a three-year-old.
The Owen Burrows trained runner started off with a good second at Newbury on debut despite being hampered in the run. He followed that up with a good third at Newmarket and finished sixth here over seven furlongs.
He can be forgiven a poor run at Brighton – a course that often suits the more idiosyncratic horses and can be competitive off a mark of 72 here.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all staked to win 20 points)
BET 9.3pts win DAPPER MAN (1.50 Southwell)
BET 13.5pts win (nap) NIGHT STORY 5.15 Lingfield)
BET 9.7pts win WARSAAN (6.15 Kempton)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
