CHELTENHAM: SEE HOW THEY WON: The Neptune Hurdle at Cheltenham is form-packed with winners of multiple races at some time in their short careers. It’s early days yet but what leads the ratings; which horses have won the key races? Read Daqman’s survey today.
CHAMPION LUDLOW NAP: Daqman sides with the champion jockey and naps what seems to be a plot horse at Ludlow today. He ties it with a Catterick ‘good thing’ at odds on, and looks for a jackpot treble from Daq Multiples.
NEON SIGN NEPTUNE POINTER
England has been all at sea in the Neptune. The Irish are six from 10, down to Willie Mullins (four), Noel Meade and Dermot Weld. But is 2017 the start of a new wave?
The markets have Colin Tizzard (Finians Oscar), Alan King (Messire Des Obeaux), and Harry Fry (Neon Wolf) in front of the Irish big two stables, Mullins (Augusta Kate, Invitation Only) and Gordon Elliott (Death Duty) but I found six of the top 10 rated were Mullins/Elliott candidates.
I checked out the stats, including past winning ratings though, of course, there’s some way to go and I’ll also be looking for key races this month and next.
Champion Hurdlers have started their Cheltenham careers here: Istabraq (1997), Hardy Eustace (2003) and Faugheen (2014), to name but three as they say. All Irish.
But the race has really only been the Neptune as we know it since 2009, and it has climbed higher in the last four years with the winners’ ratings 152 (twice) and 155.
KEY RACES: Winners had previously won Neptune trials (4), the Moscow Flyer hurdle, the Future Champions at Leopardstown over Christmas and the Tolworth. This year that points to: Any Second Now, Finian’s Oscar, Saturnas and Willoughby Court
RACE ACES: Six of the seven most recent winners had set up sequences: five in a row (three times, including bumpers); four in a row twice and three consecutive. See list below.
RECENT FORM: Five out of seven had raced in January and/or February, including the Deloitt, which run this year at Leopardstown on February 12
RATINGS: The highest rated Neptune winners in the century so far were Yorkhill (156) and Mikael d’Haguenet (155); lowest 142. Here are the current market leaders with official or my estimated collateral rating, and sequences
151 Neon Wolf (four in a row) Harry Fry
149 Finian’s Oscar (three in a row) Colin Tizzard
148 Death Duty (four in a row) Gordon Elliott
146 Any Second Now (two out of two) Willie Mullins
146 Saturnas (three from four) Willie Mullins
144 Willoughby Court (two from two) Ben Paulin
142 Augusta Kate (two out of two, then fell) Willie Mullins
142 Blow By Blow (three in a row; bumpers only) Gordon Elliott
142 Let’s Dance (three in a row) Willie Mullins)
142 Messire Des Obeaux (three in a row) Alan King
142 Penhill (three in a row) Willie Mullins
140 High Bridge (two out of two) Ben Pauling
140 Invitation Only (three in a row) Willie Mullins
139 Wholestone (three out of four) Nigel Twiston-Davies
138 Chateau Conti (three in a row) Willie Mullins
TWO TAFFS IS THE TURN CARD
1.55 Catterick Hattons Hill showed his first sign of form when a close third, staying on well, on his handicap debut at Newcastle 18 days ago.
Trainer Henry Hogarth, who had an 11-1 winner on Monday, knows what is needed to win this, after back-to-back success in (2013-14. Hattons Hill was exchanged at 8.2 this morning.
2.30 Catterick Jonjo O’Neill, who has a 30% record at Catterick, booked Aidan Coleman (who is 42% over hurdles here) for his two today, including Pillard in this one. A 9.2 chance this morning.
The only time Pillard has failed to reach the four was in the Grade-3 Fred Winter at the 2016 Cheltenham festival. He was cruising in first-time tongue-tie at Leicester in December but blew up, clearly needing his first run back.
Nietzsche is up in trip and grade for his first handicap; Thyne For Gold and CD winner Italian Riviera are up in the weights. Sam England’s stable (Alzammaar) seems to have lost its form.
3.05 Catterick Two Taffs put in a picture round in his first chase at Kempton on Boxing Day but, in receipt of 13lb, Poker School held the aces.
Considering Poker School had just won a seniors class 3 at Ascot, that was a fancy performance by Two Taffs who should hold the Donald today (that’s trump card to you). Too short for a banker but hub of Daq Multiples.
GREY MIST CAN LIFT PRIZE
4.00 Ludlow Richard Johnson shows a tasty level-stakes profit for Henry Daly, who drops Ludlow CD winner, Tara Mist, two grades (4.3 offers). Form figures 113 when returning fresh from a long break, as she is today.
We all make mistakes, but I did a double take when I read Timeform comments this morning in another place: ‘Tara Mist.. has yet to fully fire this winter.’ The grey mare has not raced since November-December 2015.
Star Rider was a 95 rated on the Flat so his 112 looks a good mark to launch his handicap career over hurdles (winner and third in novice events).
It’s hard to fancy Toberdowney, with Oliver Sherwood’s poor overall strike-rate and modest recent form, though he’s being bullish about Many Clouds against Thistlecrack for Saturday.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BACK 2pts win and place HATTON’S HILL (1.55 Catterick)
BACK 2pts win and place PILLARD (2.30 Catterick)
BACK 6pts win (nap) TARA MIST (4.00 Ludlow)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble TWO TAFFS (3.05 Catterick), KEEP MOVING (3.25 Ludlow) and TARA MIST (4.00 Ludlow)
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