FAVOURITES FLOP AS DAQMAN GOES 130 POINTS UP IN 7 DAYS: Daqman was on the mark for the layer as well as the backer yesterday, when he opposed two favourites: Dark Vader (2nd 5-4) and The Composeur (unplaced 6-4). He picked the winner of Dark Vader’s race, Auchterarder (WON 100-3), for a profit on the day, giving him an overall 130.15 for a solid week’s work.
YOUR KEY RACES GUIDE TO THE 2020 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL: Daqman picks one from each of four meetings today but first continues highlighting the key races for Cheltenham. Today: Wednesday, with a fortnight to go.
CHELTENHAM: SEE HOW THEY WON
THE same prep races are won year on year by some of the Cheltenham Festival heroes. Daqman checks out the strongest key races and finds out who’s in line for this year’s championships.
WHICH WAY TO GO?
1.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 11 (Ballymore Novices Hurdle)
2015 Windsor Park won the Deloitte Novices Hurdle
2016 Yorkhill won Tolworth Novices Hurdle
2018 Samcro won Monksfield and Deloitte novice hurdles
2020 Asterion Forlonge (BETDAQ Sportsbook 6.0) has won the Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle (formerly Deloitte). Fiddlerontheroof (13.0) won the Tolworth.
Warning: both also figure in the betting for the Supreme Novices Hurdle (see yesterday’s Daqman column). Which way will they go?
Fury Road (26.0) won the Monksfield. He is also doubly engaged at this stage: 17.0 for Friday’s Albert Bartlett.
BIG ODDS BUN DORAN
3.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 11 (Queen Mother Champion Chase)
2013 Sprinter Sacre won Clarence House Chase and Tingle Creek.
2014 Sire De Grugy won Tingle Creek, Dorset Orchid and Clarence House chases
2015 Dodging Bullets won Clarence House Chase and Tingle Creek
2016 Sprinter Sacre won Desert Orchid Chase
2017 Special Tiara won Game Spirit Chase
2018 Altior won Game Spirit Chase
2019 Altior won Tingle Creek, Dorset Orchid and Clarence House chases.
2020 Defi Du Seuil (BETDAQ Sportsbook 3.25) has won the Tingle Creek and the Clarence House, Altior (3.0) goes for the hat-trick; has won the Game Spirit Chase again, while Bun Doran (34.0) is the Desert Orchid winner. Warning: Bun Doran is also 26.0 for Friday’s Grand Annual.
TIGER’S HAT-TRICK BID
4.10 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 11 (Cross Country)
2016 Josies Orders had won the December cross country at Cheltenham
2017 Cause Of Causes won the Kim Muir the previous year
2018 Tiger Roll won NH Challenge Cup the previous year
2019 Tiger Roll won the cross country the previous year
2020 Tiger Roll goes for the hat-trick. Easyland won December cross country at Cheltenham
JACK’S ALL RIGHT GOING CLOCKWISE
2.26 Market Rasen Several in this don’t seem suited by the conditions: i.e. railing round a tight right-hander ankle deep in mud!
Solstice Star has never won going clockwise (0-10); Montanna has never won on any ground other than good; and Come On Teddy has never won!
Smackwater Jack drops in class here from a Listed and a class 2 at Cheltenham, and has the added benefit of a 7lb claim by conditional rider Lewis Stones for the burgeoning stable of Olly Murphy, which is second top of the Rasen trainers’ table with 24 winners here.
‘Jack’ is slow so he needs Young Offender to do his usual front-running. That one seemed to be getting ready for this, his first handicap, so why did they back him (beaten 10-11 favourite the last day)?
Shambra looks exposed and has never won this far, while Good And Hardy, also claimed off, gets this trip on heavy but went up 9lb so has to take a rise in grade.
3.18 Wincanton Another righthander in the mud. That suits locally-trained Molineaux (BETDAQ 3.6), who has won three times at Wincanton, on the last day beating Admiral’s Secret and Saintemilion (has won only on a sounder surface).
Though beaten threeparts of a length that day, Admirals Secret, who is ponied to the start, is 3lb worse off because he’s won since at Leicester.
Kayf Adventure is down a level in grade but has struggled since winning over today’s CD more than two years ago, and the Hobbs yard, which is missing Richard Johnson, tries cheekpieces today.
RAYDIANCE BURKE’S BRIGHT CHANCE
3.35 Southwell Karl Burke has hit a nice patch of form over the last couple of weeks with three winners from his last eight runners, all three well backed, starting 5-2 or less.
The Middleham trainer can build on those stats in this class 2 with Raydiance who is one of two course-and-distance winners in the field.
His win here came on New Year’s Day where he held off the finish of the favourite, Power Link, who has since gone on to be beaten a short head twice.
Raydiance is now up 2lb and a grade but is back over a trip which should suit him better than the mile he tried at Newcastle last time out.
The only other CD winner is Robero who has run well in two starts since his win here last month but that win came in a class 5 event and he has been punished 4lb.
A bigger danger is likely to come from Asdaa who beat Robero last time out and already has proven form on Fibresand.
Marco Botti’s Aljari looks plenty short in the market for a horse unproven on the surface and coming here on the back of a poor effort at Newcastle last time out when, apparently, the blinkers failed to help. The stable is not in great form either.
VIRAK CAN OUTRUN LORD SCOUNDREL
4.10 Musselburgh I don’t often bet in hunter chases but this one is a match on form between Lord Scoundrel and Virak, who gives away 8lb.
That may be enough but Virak beat a three-time winner in his last Point for a trainer who is 2-2 when taking a trip like this one up to Scotland from her yard a couple of miles down the road from Wincanton.
Virak was absolutely scintillating when cantering round Wincanton to score 27 lengths on the last day.
Lord Scoundrel is living off his days with Gordon Elliott when he won the Galway Plate of 2016. Poor runs since in 12 races under Rules but won his only Point earlier this month after moving to Graeme McPherson.
McPherson is otherwise badly out of form, with his runners starting between 20-1 and 33-1, some 105 days since he had a winner under Rules (Jumps) and 622 days on the Flat.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.26 Market Rasen (win 10)
BET 6pts win SMACKWATER JACK
3.18 Wincanton (win 10)
BET 3.8pts win MOLINEAUX
3.35 Southwell (win 10)
BET 5pts win RAYDIANCE
4.10 Musselburgh (supernap)
BET 20pts win VIRAK
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