HITTING IT ‘BIG’: 13 NAPS UP OUT OF 16: Little Big Man (WON 1-1) brought Daqman’s naps tally to 13 out of the last 16 for 420-points profit to a 20-points level stake since the sequence began on April 14.
SEVEN BANKERS IN A ROW: The naps run has included seven consecutive winning bankers and six hat-tricks. Little Big Man was trebled with Zuhoor Baynoona (WON 8-11) and Faugheen (WON 1-2). The naps sequence now is:
WON 6-1 ANIPA
2nd 11-4 Pearl Princess
WON 4-5 PROVIDENT SPIRIT (banker)
WON 1-1 TOORMORE (banker)
WON 2-1 LITIGANT
WON 5-1 SEA SHANTY
0 6-1 Specialagent Alfie
WON 7-4 TOKYO JAVILEX
WON 4-11 CALL THE COPS (banker)
WON 5-4 UT MAJEUR AULMES (banker)
WON 8-13 MUSIC MASTER (banker)
WON 1-2 WESTERN HYMN (banker)
0 11-4 BAYAN
WON 5-2 I’M YOURS
WON 5-4 MAN OF HARLECH
WON 1-1 LITTLE BIG MAN (banker)
LET’S SEE DAQMAN PUNCH HIS WEIGHT TODAY! It was honours even yesterday without drawing blood in the Daqman v Pricewise challenge, which Daqman leads 22-4 in the Flat (turf) season and 61-16 overall. They clash today in the 4.55, 5.30 and 6.40 at Punchestown.
2.00 Ascot Team Hannon’s record in this – 1211 – is at stake as Magical Roundabout steps up out of a Windsor maiden from which 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th have all been beaten since.
But speedball Abscent Friends would be better on a sound surface and needs something to keep him concentrating, so trainer Bill Turner is thinking about the Chester bends.
That leaves Escalating, a grandson of Lear Fan, who was beaten favourite in the Brocklesby: without a run and on soft ground then, but this sizeable colt was a different proposition at Kempton and should head the market here. The very fact that he doesn’t means he’s a bet.
2.35 Ascot Another Hannon benefit race – the stable goes for a hat-trick here – with Richard Hughes preferring Expert to Musical Comedy. But Danehill Revival looks dark!
3.10 Ascot A fillies’ race, without so much as the sun on their backs! A punters nightmare with four within a 7lb ratings parameter of those exposed, and a fair bet the winner will come from one among another quartet, those with just one or two runs.
Clive Cox (Bright Cecily) is going for a hat-trick after yesterday’s Nottingham double; Ralph Beckett won at Windsor, and Charlie Appleby at Wolver. So no edge against the trainers, then.
Of course, the ‘man most likely to’ is John Gosden (Solar Magic), who’s had 25 winners this year, more than most can hope for in a season.
3.45 Ascot (Sagaro Stakes) The four-year-olds Colour Vision and Estimate both won this on the way to Gold Cup glory in the last two years.
But this season’s four-year-old contender, Cocktail Queen, is 20lb behind the seven-year-old Royal-Oak winner, Tac De Boistron (holds Missunited).
Another aged seven, front-runner Harris Tweed, will do well to poach this one first time up, and Oriental Fox, though improving to win the Cesarewitch trial last autumn, has 11lb to find with Tac De Boistron on official ratings.
Simenon loves Ascot (form there 112) and was beaten only a neck by Estimate for the pot of gold. Fit from Meydan, this should be his for the taking, though he has reserved his best form for top of the ground and the stable has reservations about his wellbeing.
VERDICT: Willie Mullins is worried that Simenon is not in ‘as good order as we would like’, according to the Racing Post interview, so the punting decision is whether Harris Tweed can get all his own way when he’s likely to need the run.
Tac De Boistron is penalized but, with Simenon and Harris Tweed seemingly with their own problems, he looks a good BETDAQ bet at offers of 4.6 as I write.
4.55 Punchestown Form is not gospel. It’s what you make of it. What should we assume, for instance, from Apache Jack’s defeat of Very Wood at Naas, or the form reversal when Very Wood won the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham, with Apache missing the big scalp, only third.
Cheltenham was half a mile further but it would be inviting scrambled egg to suggest that Apache Jack (an Oscar out of a Supreme Leader mare) lacks stamina.
Don Poli, also scored at Cheltenham, but that was a handicap, this is Grade 1 conditions, and he needs some rain. However, he beat Thomas Crapper the equivalent of 19 lengths that day but that one was beaten a total of nearly 50 lengths in two handicaps either side of that.
The key to the collateral may be Killala Quay: he had Beat That in second in the Neptune Trial at Sandown, was then six lengths of Faugheen in the Neptune itself at Cheltenham but met massive improvement from Beat That at Aintree, trailing him 37 lengths.
VERDICT: Beat That is a horse for the future from the only yard outside of Ireland to get a look-in yesterday. A son of Milan (like Jezki) out of a Presenting mare. That’s NH royalty!
5.30 Punchestown Gold Cup Horses of Gold Cup level at Cheltenham are normally needed for this: that’s On His Own (2nd in the big one) and Lyreen Legend (6th), who ran second to the Gold Cup winner when they met in the RSA last year.
The trip found Lyreen Legend out for gold last month – though his jumping might have been better – and he could be hard to beat here, still only seven and with the ground (so rarely) in his favour.
But, if you ran that Gold Cup again, On His Own might have won it, bumped and carried right, but still beaten just a short-head in a blanket finish.
Yet Ruby Walsh prefers Boston Bob, a winner only up to 21f but whose Aintree win got a bit of a boost from the third, Ballynagour, placed in yesterday’s Champion Chase.
Medermit and Foildubh are nearly horses in this class, too old to change their spots now, but improvement can be expected from Argocat, who took a step forward, third to Silviniaco Conti at Aintree (First Lieutenant fourth).
The Lieutenant had won that race last year, and Mouse Morris reaches for the blinkers in place of the cheekpieces to try to bridge the gap today. I’m not against any aids but can’t bet on them at Grade-1 level.
VERDICT: Ruby Walsh’s rejecting the Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up in favour of a horse of 21f ability had me combing the form, the breeding and the quotes, and I came up with this: ‘Boston Bob might be a Grand National horse next year’: W Mullins. No stamina doubts, then.
Lyreen Legend (7.0 on BETDAQ) always does well here and has trip and conditions in his favour. Argocat could take another step forward. But Boston Bob (4.0) gets the number-one vote. Oh I forgot to mention Long Run. So, there you are; I’ve mentioned him.
6.40 Punchestown The Irish handicapper is a hard man, so he is. Shot From The Hip has run five times over the wrong trip since Ballybrit in August and been beaten – plus pulled up once – a total of around 50 lengths. He’s been dropped a pound. A whole pound.
Thanks very much, says trainer Edward O’Grady, who joins M T O’Donovan in putting yer man on his Christmas card list. His runner, Supreme Doc, is on a losing run of 20, has also been around a 50 lengths’ total in arrears since August – plus unseated rider – yet is dropped just 3lb.
Generous, you are, sir – to a fault – an epithet the strength of which is found only in Flann O’Brien, a good man at the races himself.
So it’s time someone thanked the handicapper. Step forward The Punter, a faceless figure who gets very little help, except – in these cases – from him.
Theoretically, he has helped us write off some of the runners in this race, and concentrate the pack like the zest from the fruit juice. Somewhere, there’s a drop of nectar to be had, called profit.
Wise Old Owl has been pegged at 135, Gift Of Dgab on 138, Orpheus Valley at 128, which is 10lb higher than his last winning mark. Beneficial Spirit is 15lb too high; Colbert Station 27lb.
Lambro has pulled up or been well beaten against all the horses I’ve mentioned so far. All too easy for the handicapper. And that makes it easier for us.
But those he can do little about are the young novices and those running in handicaps for the first time.
Aupcharlie, who has never even run in a handicap hurdle, ‘could be anything’, despite top weight, and the youngsters Grandioso, Competitive Edge, King Vuvuzela, Pass The Hat and Mitebeall Forluck are comparatively unexposed. Snag is that none has won beyond 2m 5f.
Best clues to their stamina in the conditions are that Grandioso (sire Westerner gets good ground winners but not so far at 3m); Competitive Edge is bred to stay and did well at the Fairyhouse Festival, which is a good pointer to Punchestown; King Vuvuzela’s form on today’s course is 110013, and his dam is half-sister to Grand National winner, Comply Or Die; Pass The Hat failed in his only attempt at 3m; Mitebeall Forluck is 7lb out of the handicap.
VERDICT: I’m glancing over my shoulder, worried about Gift Of Dgab, the Gigginstown pick for the race, ridden by Barry Geraghty, and trained Tony Martin, who had two placed from three yesterday.
But Competitive Edge (8.8 on BETDAQ this morning) and King Vuvuzela (10.0) seem to have more going for them than most.
DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY 10pts MAGICAL ROUNDABOUT and BET 10pts win ESCALATING (2.00 Ascot)
BET 5.5pts win TAC DE BOISTRON (3.45 Ascot)
BET 11pts win (nap) BEAT THAT (4.55 Punchestown)
BET 6.6pts win BOSTON BOB and 3.3pts win LYREEN LEGEND (5.30 Punchestown)
BET 2.5pts win COMPETITIVE EDGE and 2.2pts win KING VUVUZELA (6.40 Punchestown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble ESCALATING (2.00 Ascot), BEAT THAT (4.55 Punchestown) and BOSTON BOB (5.30 Punchestown)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
