NAP, NAP, NAP: PROFIT, PROFIT, PROFIT: Daqman landed a hat-trick of naps and a treble of winning days when Tomorrow Day scored at Newcastle last night:
Tuesday: profit on the day 1.9pts
WON 1-1 TOMORROW DAY (nap)
Monday: profit on the day 3.4pts
WON 5-6 TADREEB (nap)
Sunday (3-3): profit on the day 35.9pts
WON 5-4 LECKY WATSON
WON 8-15 SALVATOR MUNDI (nap)
WON EVS KAPPA JY PIKE
(Plus 1pt win treble at SP)
APPLE PICKED AT NEWBURY: After a winning treble of favourites on Sunday, Daqman opposes three market leaders this morning. He always puts his head on the line but maybe an Apple today at Newbury will keep the Doctor away at Hereford!
IT’S MUG A FAVOURITE TIME
⭕ 2.25 Newbury (Harwell Trophy) Favourites have a poor record (10%) in this slot, so do six-year-olds (also 10%).
As well as the stats, facts that may worry backers of Jasmin De Grugy are that he’s up 11lb, hasn’t raced this far, has been beaten every time on soft or heavy ground and his trainer Anthony Honeyball has slumped to 0-8, including two losing favourites.
That doesn’t mean Jasmin will be beaten but that I won’t be backing him. Just as Sunday I named three winning favourites because they deserved to be favourite, not forgetting that the weather left only one meeting.
If Jasmin De Grugy wins, we can hope he is better odds, and keeping your Daq up is the advice for that very reason, as he may be opposed for market leadership. A ‘new favourite’ following a run in the market at least gives you the edge that he really is fancied, not just there because the mugs put him there.
Blindly talking about favourites is to employ one of the triple axioms common among those mugs. Together they have the ring of common conjugation in their verbal diarrhea:
‘I never back favourites’/’you only tip favourites’/’the favourite should have won’. Bless them all, trying distraction instead of admitting defeat, like a badly-briefed politician.
Jasmin De Grugy’s price should reflect the negatives in his facts and stats. If he wins, I am well prepared for the after-timer’s riposte number 4: ‘How could he oppose that favourite? I knew it was going to win!’
Which should be followed up by this slice of Oirish, akin to a bar story by the great Flann O’Brien: ‘I take it you backed it then?’
‘Er, no; I didn’t bother. Favourite, you see; too short for me. I like a fair price.’
If Jasmin is going to lose, who’s going to win? Well, my best guess is New Order who was in stylish chasing form last month after wind operations and has won on soft over hurdles.
LUCINDA AWAY DAY, NO DOUBT
⭕ 3.00 Newbury Surely, he’s not going to rant about the favourite again!
Well I surely should if Norn Iron leads the market: he’s never won a race and was beaten favourite when second – on good ground – in a maiden hurdle, won by one who stepped up to handicaps next time out and pulled up.
His trainer Harry Derham’s record with favourites since New Year’s Day: three losers and just one winner. Lucinda Russell brings Thereisnodoubt all the way down from Scotland.
A heavy-ground winner at this class-4 level when upped to 124. Some 11lb lower now, and led for much of the way at Haydock the last day, yet 23.00 in Betdaq Betting Exchange offers this morning.
Venetia Williams saddles Eximia, hoping to discover that this Nathaniel mare, four times a chase winner in France, is a stayer.
Ned Fox rides, with Charlie Deutsch on seven for the stable, race by race, in more intimate surroundings at Hereford, which is 10 miles from Venetia’s yard.
Intimate (1.45) was a solid runner-up at Sandown and the ground today is not as deep as the heavy at Haydock just before Christmas when Intimate was a beaten favourite.
Moodofthemoment has been hit for an 8lb rise and The Good Doctor is the uneasy favourite this morning, up in trip and with a tendency to hang left.
⭕ 3.35 Newbury There is no doubt that Lucinda Russell is down South for a tilt at a 20-grand prize with Apple Away, suited by a slog in the mud and one-time arch rival of Grey Dawning, the Skeltons Gold Cup hope.
The Grade-1 hurdle winner took a Listed mares’ chase at Perth and is again taking on only those of her own sex today.
Fantastic Lady has opened well in chases over the Grand National fences, and is again being trained for them.
Lady Balko has landed a chasing hat-trick on good to soft; Don’t Rightly Know has nearly 20lb to find on her.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
1.45 Hereford (win 12)
BET 3.25pts win INTIMATE
2.25 Newbury (win 20)
BET 4pts win NEW ORDER
★ 3.35 Newbury (win 20, nap)
BET 7.5pts win APPLE AWAY
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
