THREE NAPS WIN OUT OF FOUR: Daqman landed his third winning nap in four days yesterday thanks to Bloody Mary (WON 4-6), following back–to-back bankers on Saturday and Sunday, so:
WON 4-5 Thistlecrack (banker)
WON 1-1 Felix Yonger (banker)
WON 4-6 Bloody Mary (nap)
6-1 SHOT AS HE HITS THREE: Isn’t it always the same when you don’t do your Daq Multiples; you get a heap of winners! Daqman hit three out of four yesterday, including a 6-1 shot:
WON 6-1 Join The Navy
WON 11-4 Sonny The One
WON 4-6 Bloody Mary (nap)
BANKERS BREAK EVEN IN THE MUD
How expensive the weekend Mullins flops! Last month’s 60% strike rate on the Daqman bankers (six out of 10) still managed a tiny profit of three points to 20-point level stakes. But prices were poor compared with December.
December’s 63% (from seven out of 11) produced a profit of 46 points but the January edge was blunted by Willie Mullins.
It’s not just Willie’s losers you have to pay for – like the pair of shockers, Morning Run and Djakadam – but his winners are usually cramped odds at SP.
Two points to make: we have to declare at SP for straight comparison, though prices are much better on BETDAQ in the morning.
Secondly, you don’t have to back level stakes (that’s just the usual way to assess tipping reliability). A different staking plan, or selectivity of race types (whatever) could make a huge difference.
WON 11-8 Adrien Du Pont
WON 1-6 Garde Le Victoire
2nd 5-4 The Unit
WON 5-6 Black Hercules
2nd 6-5 Steal The Scene
WON 4-6 Vroom Vroom Mag
3rd 5-6 Morning Run
fell 5-6 Djakadam
WON 4-5 Thistlecrack
WON 1-1 Felix Yonger
83 PER CENT OF LAYS ARE LANDED
The market seemed to have the answers. Apart from a few shocks – like the demise of that Mullins pair – the muddy month of January was a tricky time to lay the favourites.
If you didn’t know what animals would act in the deep terrain, the betting told you.
Daqman was ultra selective in his usual quest for a 72% strike-rate. In fact, he hit a high for the last few months of 83% with five out of six:
WON Tippmanboy (Fell 1-1)
LOST Lake View Lad (Won 2-5)
WON Oakley Girl (3rd 15-8)
WON Sire De Grugy (2nd 11-4)
WON Megara (2nd 11-4)
WON Turn Over Sivola (unplaced 9-2)
IS IT A 1-2-3 FOR FIVE AND SIX?
It’s a golden age in Saturday’s big Newbury Hurdle. Not for champions: with the possible exception the future Aintree Hurdle winner, Zarkandar, and My Tent Or Yours, immediately afterwards second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, the race hasn’t been a kingmaker in the last decade.
At the turn of the century, the subsequent Champion Hurdle winner, Make A Stand (1997) and Landing Light (2001) – Fighting Fifth, Christmas Hurdle – were much bigger stars of Saturday’s show.
No, the gold is in the age of the winners. Incredibly, Saturday’s race expects its TENTH successive victory for horses aged five or six years old.
Look out for my verdict on Saturday, when I shall attempt to extend my season’s lead over Pricewise after last Saturday’s 66-1 double in the two races he tipped in.
My fancies today are:
A BANKER TO EASE THE PAIN..
2.35 Newcastle It shouldn’t be pronounced ‘pain’ but it was to me when I got carried away with Pain Au Chocolat’s defeat of Old Guard at Sandown a year or so ago (strangely, I’ve also got over excited about Old Guard since).
I thought I had massive value Pain Au Chocolat on BETDAQ for the Triumph Hurdle but big odds don’t necessarily mean big value. He ran down the field.
He’s made a good start over fences, beating the subsequent Market Rasen class-2 winner, Aso, at Haydock and looks the quality horse in this field.
‘Chocolat’ (I prefer not to call him Pain!) had Irish raider Captain Hox – class 4 novice hurdle wins only – far enough behind at Haydock to suggest that he will struggle to reverse the form, despite a weights adjustment.
Got The Nac is a CD winner here, but a morning non runner so the task looks even easier for the jolly.
2.45 Ludlow A poor seam of form has dropped Jonjo O’Neill’s strike rate for the season to 13% over fences, and Rebecca Curtis has had five of her last seven runners fail to complete.
They have two each in this, with the O’Neill glass horse, Another Hero, as the morning favourite on BETDAQ.
Belmount has blundered his (shortish-priced) hopes away since scoring on the course in May, so I’m tempted by the 5.4 offers about Still Believing.
Her chance won’t take much believing by Ludlow racegoers. Her form, chase and hurdles, on the course in senior company is 310411 in all types of ground, including two successes for claimer Conor Ring.
He reduces her rating to 5-6lb below her latest Ludlow victories, and her weight will be 2st 2lb lower than when successful on the last day!
OVER THE MOON FOR MULHOLLAND
3.35 Leicester Though Venetia Williams is out in force on her local Ludlow track with four runners, she sends just the one to Leicester.
I would suggest it’s the Leicester horse that’s the betting business. Venetia has much better form there; for instance, she has a 36% strike rate over fences, but half that (18%) at Ludlow.
Her solo raider on the Oadby track, the grey Lower Hope Dandy, had a great blow out in front at Newbury in December on his comeback, has been given more than a month off so that he doesn’t bounce, and he’s claimed off to bring his mark beneath my measure of his form.
This front-runner is a BETDAQ trade-out prospect (first position around 4.4), dropped in grade this afternoon.
3.45 Newcastle It’s a long, long way from Bath to the Blaydon Races, and Halo Moon has every chance for the burgeoning stable of Neil Mulholland.
His Fakenham win came in very slow time, with some very slow jumping but the money’s been going down race after face, and he was a vey close third at Huntingdon over further.
‘Nothing’ to beat today, so it’s a double banker day. Last time I did that, I was landed with a Willie Mullins double.. of losers!
But I can get better than evens Halo Moon on BETDAQ this morning so, with only 50% success, I can expect to break even, except that I’ll have to go back to Daq Multiple betting after missing out yesterday.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points except the bankers)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) PAIN AU CHOCOLAT (2.35 Newcastle)
BET 4.5pts win STILL BELIEVING (2.45 Ludlow)
BET 6pts win LOWER HOPE DANDY (3.35 Leicester)
BANKER: BET 20pts win HALO MOON (3.45 Newcastle)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt win acca on the four above.
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