THREE WINNING DAYS OUT OF FOUR: Daqman blanked on Monday but was quickly back in control yesterday with two winners in three races, in profit for the third day out of four. His winners were 6.2 and 2.6 offers on BETDAQ early doors but both were gambles and the Fortune Cookie went very short after defections, settled here at evens to be fair to those who didn’t get on early.
Tuesday: profit on the day 10.50 points
WON 11-4 AJERO (from BETDAQ 6.2)
WON 4-11 FAROUK D’ALENE (Fortune Cookie nap, morning offers 2.6)
Sunday: profit on the day 10 points
WON 11-8 CLEAR THE RUNWAY (nap and sole Sunday bet)
Saturday: profit on the day 6.25 points
WON 9-2 THE GALLOPING BEAR (Haydock Park Grand National Trial)
WON 9-4 FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES (Ascot Chase)
15 WINNERS FOR FORTUNE COOKIES: Don’t miss a Fortune Cookie. Keep the list handy on your screen and get on early. Again for fairness, whatever the offers on the morning of each race, the Cookies list is settled for the record at a 10-point level-stake at SP.
RESULTS so far (15 out of 21 with Farouk d’Alene): WWWWWW200WWWWW22WWW2W Profit 95.74
* Farouk d’Alene, who showed his stamina to win for the list yesterday, is an ante-post bet by Daqman for the NH Challenge Cup at Cheltenham at BETDAQ 15.0, though the bet may need covering in the Brown Advisory.
VINTAGE FOR THE VETERANS
⭕ 3.25 Doncaster Vintage Clouds is back on the mark off which he won the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival last March, quite a step up at age 11 from his one-paced eighth in the same race a year before, when he was set a rating 8lb higher.
Let’s look at the Lays Logic against Vintage Clouds’ opposition. Black Op is down a stone from his hey-day but never was a great chaser; in fact, a nearly horse over fences with just 1-12.
Chirico Vallis has also won just the once since his novice success convinced connections to send him back hurdling!
But ‘Chico’ has been in fine form, following up his senior win at Chepstow with third in the Warwick Classic.
He and Dingo Dollar have an edge over the rest of the field: they are still only 10, and have a year – or two in the case of Vintage Clouds – in hand of their rivals.
Dingo Dollar is top of the ratings after his second in the Scottish Grand National last Spring and third in the Rehearsal Chase in November.
But his best form is all on a soundish surface, and I fancy that he’s getting back in the groove ready for drier-ground targets in the Spring.
Belami Des Pictons goes well when fresh. After breaks he’s been second in a Listed, fourth in the Autumn Gold Cup at Cheltenham (9lb lower now), fourth to Snow Leopardess at Bangor and runner-up at Exeter the last day. But it’s only 10 days since that effort.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE: Vintage Clouds (11.0) could have a new lease of life after a wind op and Chirico Vallis (4.6) seems sure to stay on into a place at least. Fascinating stuff.
PUSHKIN COMES TO SHOVE..
⭕ 4.10 Ludlow They rode Cafe Pushkin for stamina the last day, and he very nearly gave 11lb to the winner at Fontwell (beaten just a short-head).
If anyone can squeeze the last ounce out of them it’s Sam Twiston-Davies and, back up to class 4, Pushkin is getting weight now from eight of the dozen or so in opposition.
Electron Bleu has failed to win in 12 hurdles starts and his sole success from 25 races was a chase in the French provinces.
Neon Moon won at Plumpton from a good yardstick, Getalead, but it was first-time in blinkers for the David Pipe six-year-old that day and there’s no guarantee they will have the same effect, now he’s burdened with a 7lb penalty.
Lounge Lizard, Happy And Fine and Whatsupwithyou – winners of a total of one maiden hurdle from 23 starts – are in first-time cheekpieces, which will have to make an enormous difference.
That one only win was by Whastupwithyou, fourth in last year’s Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival, and down 21lb if you include 20-year-old Luca Morgan’s claim.
Wouldn’t it be a one in the eye for ratings rubbishers if Whatsupwithyou won, as the top rating in the race.
When push comes to shove we can back two on BETDAQ at around 13.0 Cafe Pushkin and Whatsupwithyou (8.2).
TOP STABLES BACKING HARRY
⭕ NEWCASTLE Not a time to be backing three-year-olds at odds on, and El Caballo (2.35) is giving weight to higher-rated rivals, with his stable struggling to find winners (only a maiden – nothing with form – has won for Karl Burke in the last two weeks: strike rate 1-11).
George Boughey (Hellomydarlin) has also been missing strike on 1-10, and this is the time for William Haggas to show some form in a week when he plans to take the Winter Derby with Alenquer.
The Haggas filly Canonized has already placed at Group level (with Hellomydarlin in rear) and won at Listed level. BETDAQ 4.0.
⭕ KEMPTON An arrow to your bow as you try to pin down the winners is to follow young jockeys of potential while they’re on the up.
Harry Davies, who turned 17 in December, has a strike rate of 23% and must have a brilliant agent, if he can get bookings, as today, for horses trained Charlie Appleby and Andrew Balding.
Harry claims 7lb off May Night (5.30) for Balding, dropping back to the class-4 level which brought the four-year-old a quick double in the autumn, one of them here at Kempton.
Yukon Star (7.30) has looked very pacy for Jim Crowley and Tom Marquand over 7f. Now Charlie Appleby drops the Oasis Dream (out of a Dubawi mare) down to 6f. With Harry’s claim off, he’s racing on bottomweight.
Tom Clover is in terrific form at Kempton (2-3 within a current strike rate of 4-8 for the yard) and the lightly-raced Rajmeister (6.00) has twice run well on the course. Hayley Turner booked.
BETDAQ value 4.6 May Night, 6.3 Yukon Star, 10.4 Rajmeister
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.35 Newcastle (win 10 nap)
BET 3.25pts win CANONIZED
3.25 Doncaster (win 20, win 10)
BET 2pts win VINTAGE CLOUDS
BET 2.75pts win CHIRICO VALLIS
4.10 Ludlow (win 20 each)
BET 2.75pts win WHATSUPWITHYOU
BET 1.6pts win CAFE PUSHKIN
5.30 Kempton (win 10)
BET 2.75pts win MAY NIGHT
6.00 Kempton (win 10, place win 5)
BET 1pt win and 2.5pts place RAJMEISTER
7.30 Kempton (win 10)
BET 2pts win YUKON STAR
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
