DAQMAN ON THE CHELTENHAM SCENE: Are the Cheltenham weekend races, starting on Friday, live trials for the festival? What can win the Autumn Gold Cup? Today and tomorrow, Daqman finds some answers.
❌ JUMPS MEETINGS CALLED OFF TODAY: With Ayr and Bangor abandoned, today’s racing is confined to AW tracks at Kempton and Newcastle.
NICHOLLS STAGES GOLD COUP
⭕ 2.20 Cheltenham, Saturday (Autumn Gold Cup) Daqman was planning to do an ABC guide but it slimmed the field down to just three horses! It suggested that Paul Nicholls was seemingly set to stage a star. Here’s how it looked:
Only four winners in 20 years have carried more than 11st 2lb and soft ground would increase that probability.
AGE It’s a race for young pretenders. 13 of the 20 winners have been aged six or seven, with just three aged nine.
TRAINERS with winners in the race: Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nigel Twiston-Davies (3) and Paul Nicholls (2). Horses fitting age and weight criteria:
🏇 FINAL ORDERS (Gavin Cromwell) Four out of five in Ireland, since scoring at Leopardstown last Christmas. Fifth in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham (2m). Best form on good ground, 2m to 2m 4f.
🏇 HARPERS BROOK (Ben Pauling) Coming back from a long break, after winning two out of three novice chases at minor meetings.
🏇 IL RIDOTO (Paul Nicholls) Fourth to GA Law in this chase last season after wind surgery. It was the second of his five chases at Cheltenham, including fourth again in the New Year’s Day Chase.
Broke through in a similar race in late January, when making most of the running, getting back up when headed at the last.
Only sixth in the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival. Fugitif, second, is now 6lb worse off, which rises to a pound short of a stone, if you deduct Freddie Gingell’s 7lb claim on Il Ridoto.
🏇 STAGE STAR Nichols also runs Stage Star, who completed a novice-chase double at Cheltenham by taking the Turners at the festival from Not Long Till May, who has a 3lb pull for three and a quarter lengths. It doesn’t look enough.
VERDICT: The Nicholls pair, Stage Star and Il Ridoto, get 7lb and 18lb from top-weight The Real Whacker, who hasn’t seen a racecourse for 248 days.
Unexpected Party was well beaten twice by Stage Star at Cheltenham in January and March, and Notlongtillmay was ‘no match’ (says Raceform) for Stage Star in the Turners.
Gavin Cromwell sees Final Orders’ chase career (rating now 148) as a massive transformation from his days as a 96 hurdler and a 129 handicap chaser. So he looks a threat to the home team.
SHE LOOKS BERRI GOOD
⭕ 3.37 Newcastle Considering the scepticism at the time, the switch at Newcastle to an all-weather track must have been the best decision the course has ever made.
There seldom seems to be a day without racing at ‘The Toon’ and the cards (nine races today) seldom seem to be under-subscribed.
It’s certainly competitive too. The 5.50 was looking at 5/1 co-favourites of FIVE when I checked the Betdaq Betting Exchange earlier this morning!
The only bet on the card for me is Franberri who is taken to follow up her recent course and distance success on her first start in handicap company.
The starting mark of 79 doesn’t look too onerous for the daughter of Frankel, especially when you consider she is on the exact same level as both Noble Anthem and Real Terms who are starting to look exposed.
She will surely improve on just her fourth career start – indeed just her second AW outing.
She has already shown a liking for the C&D and her trainer Roger Varian is 5 winners from his last 22 runners – she looks the pick of his two runners in the north east today.
I’m staking her to win 20 points and a sporting nap on a day of thin opportunities.
ENGINEERING A SELECTION
⭕ 3.45 Kempton I’m in no rush to back Mukaafah at short odds. He has no fancy entries and was disappointing on debut at Yarmouth when also sent off favourite and finishing fourth of nine.
Of course he is entitled to improve on that effort but I don’t want to take a short price that he will and is on the all-weather for the first time.
The percentage call for me is Engineer who brings solid enough form into the race (including here at Kempton) and it might be one of those races where the form in the book is set high enough for a multitude of lightly raced types and debutants to aim at.
FIZZ RUNNING OUT WITH COLA?
⭕ 8.00 Kempton The Cola Kid bids for a course hat-trick after narrow wins over 7f and tonight’s 6f but must be vulnerable with another 5lb and racing from a wider draw.
I prefer the chances of the James Fanshawe trained Annie Law who won over course and distance last time out and has been raised just a pound which is a rarity these days for a last time out winner.
The danger might be Top Button who didn’t show much here in September but looks progressive and might do better now handicapping.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
3.37 Newcastle (win 20, nap)
BET 5.7pts win FRANBERRI
3.45 Kempton (win 10)
3.3pts win ENGINEER
8.00 Kempton (win 10)
BET 2.3pts win ANNIE LAW
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