483 POINTS PROFIT FOR EARLY BIRDS: Five winners from nine runners in 12 races so far for 483.42 profit to to 20-point level stakes. That’s the record of Daqman’s Early Birds list of horses to follow this Spring. Today the list’s Lincoln winner, Bravery, reappears (3.00 Newmarket).
DAQMAN’S 28 POINTS UP ON PRICEWISE: It’s Daqman v Pricewise today in the 2.40 Cheltenham and 3.35 Newmarket with the score Daqman 5, Pricewise 1 (Daqman +10.50, Pricewise – 17.50 to a single-unit stake).
REPUTATION ON THE LINE AT 6.8
1.50 Newmarket Though a lay is out of the question at 7.4 in the BETDAQ green, the morning joint-favourite Normandy Barriere has to be opposed for four distinct reasons.
Firstly, we’ve said that, until we’re proved wrong, we’ll follow the four-year-olds from last year’s Classic crop. In fact, they won both handicaps yesterday (2-2; no other options).
Six of that age group in this race are all getting weight from Normandy Barriere. Third of all, he’s never won higher than 91 and he’s off 96 here.
Fourth reason: his trainer, Nigel Tinkler, has had a stinker of an AW season with just one winner (1-19), so you can’t bet you’ll get a return from his three runners today, of which this one is the shortest price.
John Quinn is the man in form, and he puts his reputation on the line here, by applying blinkers to his eponymous runner, and booking Ryan Moore. Reputation has to be backed at 6.8.
2.25 Newmarket (Free Handicap) Only sprinklings of stardust in the recent history of this race. You have to go back to 1959 (Petite Etoile) and 1989 (Danehill) for any supernova.
A Brexit in reverse as long ago as 1995 (when Andre Fabre won it) has diminished this so-called European handicap but at least Ballydoyle is here today, attempting a first win in the race.
All bar Private Matter (gelded; and working well)and Perfect Angel are Group-1 entered in Classics or nearly so.
The money talks. There have been no winners bigger than 11-2 in the decade, and of course Aidan O’Brien’s Whitecliffsofdover – stylishly named after his sire, War Front – is in the right area in the BETDAQ market this morning.
But, on last year’s form, ‘Cliffs’ is no longer whiter than white. First and second in front of him in the Lagardere have both been beaten this Spring (Nastional Defense in the Djebel and Salouen yesterday).
Majeste would give a big boost to Craven Stakes favourite tomorrow, Rivet, to whom he was fourth in the Champagne Stakes in September.
Sir Dancealot was further in rear that day but is a shorter price than Majeste this morning. Like Rodaini, he was campaigned as a two-year-old.
You are more likely to get a result following lightly raced individuals which have come on over the winter.
Though the purists will blanch at a Classic prospect wearing a hood, Seven Heavens (at 4.8 on BETDAQ) is the one worth backing on that account.
AUTOCRATIC GOING TO THE TOP
3.00 Newmarket (Earl Of Sefton Stakes) The last four years have produced winners in the narrow ratings parameter 110-115, so Folkswood (112), Spark Plug (112) and Viren’s Army (111).
I hope my Lincoln winner, Bravery, can go on from there and owes us nothing after the 20-1 success. Folkswood and Virens Army are also winners already.
But my man in the long grass tells me that the one to be on is Sir Michael Stoute’s Autocratic, ‘only’ a handicapper but in the Freemason Lodge mould of a Group horse in the making. The 6.8 this morning looked tasty.
3.35 Newmarket (Nell Gwyn Stakes) John Gosden (3 wins) is the only successful Nell Gwyn trainer in the decade with a runner today.
But an assault from Ireland and France could put Aidan O’Brien or Andrew Fabre in the money for only the second t ime in the history of the race since Angel Penna trained Flying Water to score in 1976.
Fabre is the man who punished the Lagardere form in the Djebel with Al Wukair, now perhaps the main danger to Churchill in the Newmarket Guineas.
Today he brings over Pamplemousse in this one. In my spell as a journalist in Paris, I would dine on pamplemouuse, brioche and coffee for breakfast every morning.
Now English trainers will be sour as a grapefruit if he Fabre can produce his Chantilly maiden winner, herself a daug ter of a Lagardere heronine, to win this Classic trial.
The Nell Gwyn hasn’t thrown up a Classic winner since Speciosa (1,000 Guineas) in 2006, and Fabre says that Palmplemousse will not be going for the Newmarket Guineas.
I’m backing Sea Of Grace (at BETDAQ 5.6), whose entries include the Diane and Saint-Alary, so she will be staying on, whereas the Ballydoyle pair, Brave Anna and Roly Poly look like sprinters trying to get further.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points except the nap)
BET 3.5pts win REPUTATION, and 2pts win and place MOONRAKER (1.50 Newmarket)
BET 5.2pts win SEVEN HEAVENS (2.25 Newmarket)
BET 3pts win VOIX D’EAU (2.40 Cheltenham)
BET 5pts to win 30 (nap) AUTOCRATIC (3.00 Newmarket)
BET 6.5pts win DIVINE SPEAR and 3.75pts win RIVER FOREST (3.15 Cheltenham)
BET 4.3pts win SEA OF GRACE (3.35 Newmarket)
BET 4pts win and place SALAMAH (5.45 Beverley)
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