PROVIDENT DAY FOR THE PUNTER: Daqman banks on John Gosden’s Provident Spirit as the Newmarket Craven Meeting is launched this afternoon, bristling with Classic trialists, the Nell Gwyn for fillies being the feature heat.
HANNON AND GOSDEN STABLES IN FORM: But his bets on an all-three-year-olds card come with a health warning, and his strategy is to follow two hot stables – Richard Hannon’s and John Gosden’s – to try to protect his BETDAQ wallet.
Punters are fly when it comes to the 2.20 Newmarket. At a meeting when every race is for three year-olds (remember my warning that their two-year-old form won’t always work out), there have been few winning favourites over the years.
But eight out of 10, one jointly so, have taken the 2.20 sprint in the last decade, with the Hannon yard winning five despite fielding only seven runners.
The Hannon stat and the favourte’s spot combine in Flyball in the race this afternoon, though penalised horses have won only four of the 10.
1.45 Newmarket John Gosden saddled 12 winners in five days up to and including Monday at a 60% strike rate, and including six doubles and two trebles.
He has three runners today – one of them Provident Spirit in this – and picks from seven tomorrow, if Daq Multiples backers fancy him to continue the spree.
Provident Spirit had an all-important outing at Doncaster, and may have most to fear from Emirati Spirit, though the one for the future is probably Zilber, when seen over a longer trip.
What makes life even more difficult for the punter today is the change of going: it’s good-to-firm, not the soft ground, as on the day Provident Spirit was second in March.
VERDICT: Only Provident Spirit and Zilber are wanted in the BETDAQ market-place this morning. Both sides of Zilber’s pedigree shout stamina and I expect to see him picking up out of the dip but, in theory, he won’t be winning until he tackles 1m 2f plus. If he does win over shorter today, then he’s a serious horse to follow.
2.20 Newmarket Team Hannon has farmed this, with form-figures in the decade of 1110112, and the big Proclamation colt Flyball improved on his Brocklesby third to score second time of asking at Leicester.
Surely there’s scope for further improvement as he furnishes his frame, though Harry Hurricane was beaten narrowly in a three-way photo in the Leicester race and Flyball’s penalty gives ‘Harry’ the chance of turning the tables.
Charlie Appleby has started well but I thought US-dirt-bred Portamento would do better on AW. Mind Of Madness is interesting, bred to have the foot for today’s minimum trip on turf.
VERDICT: I took 4.0 Flyball on BETDAQ this morning, thinking he had more scope than Harry Hurricane, though the worry is that the big colt may need a bit of cut.
2.55 Newmarket The Tattersalls Millions Auction Trophy here at HQ in September has been a strong indicator for this, with two out of three winners having run second in the autumn race.
Today it’s a virtual rerun, with Toofi (won), Muir Lodge (third), Bon Voyage (fourth), Highland Acclaim (fifth) and Quickaswecan (sixth) all reopposing.
Muir Lodge and Highland Acclaim have the advantage of a run but both are long-term ‘hoodies’ and it would have to be a poor race for one of them to win. It’s not a poor race, if Bon Voyage can reproduce his good-ground two-year-old form.
In October, Bon Voyage would reverse the placings with Toofi over an extra furlong, from an unfavourable draw, also in a Tattersalls Millions feature here (Quickaswecan, Muir Lodge behind).
That race was won by Oklahama City, subsequently within a couple of lengths over the Rowley Mile of one of the 2,000 Guineas market leaders, Kingston Hill, in the Group-3 Autumn Stakes.
Wedding Ring has won five times, twice in Millions races at Newmarket last season, and was fourth in the UAE 1,000 Guineas in Dubai in February but would have finished only sixth in the Fred Darling if a line through two-year-old form with Manderley is still accurate.
One Chance’s third in the Queen Mary would normally be good enough for this but she refused to settle, last of eight, in a subsequent Group race. Her stable has been in fine form on AW.
Scrutiny is related only to handicappers and Naadirr, a 7f winner on AW, is bred to need further. So, too, Magnus Maximus. Crowdmania has been winning at a much lower level.
VERDICT: Fillies (like One Chance and Wedding Ring) have so far failed to make their weight allowance tell in the three runnings of this race.
Meydan form can be misleading, though at least Wedding Ring is fit and has shown her class. But, if you forgive Bon Voyage (9.4) his soft-ground flop at the end of last season, he is a match on class and should in no way be twice the price of Toofi.
3.30 Newmarket (Free Handicap) A 2,000 Guineas fifth, seventh and eighth (twice) is the general best level of the winner of this in the last decade, though the race has also produced a Jersey Stakes winner and fourth.
Shifting Power was another big, strapping Hannon colt last season, in the manner of Flyball, yet was off the mark first time, following up on the July Course here before being put away to do his growing.
Neither he nor Mushir, another dual winner, had the top-class juvenile form of Parbold, unlucky second in the Coventry, then third successively to both Toormore and Astaire (Saayeer behind but hooded now) but the stats say that the heavily-penalised top weights are at a serious disadvantage in this.
VERDICT: The classy but more exposed Parbold has to give weight all round and another Hannon colt, Shifting Power, has scope for plenty of improvement.
4.05 Newmarket (Nell Gwyn Stakes) Just one winner and a second from this have taken the 1,000 Guineas in the decade, with turn-ups at 10-1, 14-1 and 28-1 in the last three seasons suggesting that the market may not be helpful.
But it was the best guide to the first fillies’ trial, the Fred Darling, last week when gambled-on J Wonder defeated the Cheveley Park flop, Joyeuse, who had herself beaten Dorothy B a neck at Salisbury in September.
A Marco Botti filly was made favourite on Saturday, splitting J Wonder and Joyeuse, which suggests that we should pay particular attention to his pair, Euro Charline and Pelerin.
Another young trainer, Charlie Appleby, also has two for Godolphin in this, Majeyda and Folk Melody, who caught my eye at Newmarket last July, form boosted by the runner-up Enraptured.
Since Enraptured is trained by John Gosden that takes us back to Dorothy B, but she was another flop in the Cheveley Park, alongside Joyeuse.
The Cheveley Park runner-up was Princess Noor, who had beaten Queen Catrine and Along Again at Ascot in July, both runners today.
If you put a slide-rule on all that collateral two-year-old form, there wasn’t more than a pound or two among the lot of them, inluding Sandiva, only a neck in front of Joyeuse at Royal Ascot.
VERDICT: All depends which pretty baby has grown into a Nell Gwyn with power in her chest and hindquarters, but I’ll try a bit of Folk Melody win and place.
4.40 Newmarket (Feilden Stakes) Mark Johnston (Somewhat) likes to steal this for Yorkshire from under the nose of the local HQ trainers. His form figures in the race are 1101314 since 2004.
Intello won it last year on the way to taking the French Derby. This time the home team faces an Irish raid from Ger Lyons’ Obliterator, half-brother to Curragh 1,000 Guineas winner, Just The Judge.
VERDICT: Obliterator at 5.0 on BETDAQ but a wary eye on Mark Johnston, so Somewhat of a stakes saver!
5.10 Newmarket Back to where I came in, John Gosden is 11022 in this, since it was first run in this form in 2008, and his Sea The Stars colt, Munjaz, out of a Zafonic mare, is one of the more interesting runners of the day on breeding.
William Haggas and Brian Meehan, who won the Fred Darling, have well-bred sorts in Wrangler and Mustadaam.
VERDICT: Today’s strategy is to bet on the Hannon yard so that I make a profit if just one of his three wins. Now I’m going to mark down Nunjaz as my stakes saver, if the banker loses, both being trained by John Gosden.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except the banker)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) PROVIDENT SPIRIT (1.45 Newmarket), if lose 11pts win MUNJAZ (5.10 Newmarket)
BET 6.6pts win FLYBALL (2.20 Newmarket)
BET 2.3pts win and place BON VOYAGE (2.55 Newmarket)
BET 11pts win SHIFTING POWER (3.30 Newmarket)
BET 2.3pts win and place FOLK MELODY (4.05 Newmarket)
BET 4pts win OBLITERATOR and 1pt win (stakes saver) SOMEWHAT (4.40 Newmarket)
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