SUPER-FAST MUTASAABEQ WINS FOR DAQMAN ON ROAD TO THE TOP: A profit on the day yesterday (+4.75) as Daqman tipped Mutasaabeq (WON 7-2) at Newmarket but probably aimed too low in putting him up for the Royal Hunt Cup. Though there were only four runners in his six-lengths victory, and every other race was slow run, Mutasaabeq won in a fast time and talk afterwards was of the 1,000 Guineas or the Jersey Stakes.
TWO DAYS OF NEWMARKET AND CHELTENHAM ON TERRESTRIAL TV: Newmarket sees the return of Frankie Dettori today as the quality steps up but with some puzzling Classic trials. Cheltenham is intriguing: no Irish runners! Both meetings are on terrestrial TV today and tomorrow. Headlines:
🔹 HERE’S ONE THAT’S GOING PLACES..
🔹 ONTARIO LOOKS BETDAQ VALUE AT 7.3
🔹 FRANKIE’S BACK TO CLAIM A DIAMOND
🔹 HOW TO EARN SOME GUINEAS ‘OVERS’
HERE’S ONE THAT’S GOING PLACES..
⭕ 1.50 Newmarket (6f handicap) The grey Gunmetal had dropped 7lb below his winning mark in this race in 2017 when he lined up at Doncaster’s opening meeting of the season. He came through late and won.
This is a class higher and it’s three years since he put back-to-back wins together but he’s still 20lb below his rating when he finished sixth in the 2019 Wokingham, and he has a tasty low draw in gate 4.
Additional, from stall 2, was giving 15lb when third at Ascot in October to Stone Circle, whose sole success since his juvenile days has been on the soft.
George Bowen finished well in Gunmetal’s race at Doncaster and is 20lb below his sound Spring form of 2019.
Andrew Balding, who currently has a near-30% strike rate, gives himself two top chances here with Stone Of Destiny and Chil Chil, both with strong jockeys up.
Chil Chil may need to drop a few pounds and Stone Of Destiny’s best form for Balding has all come from August onwards.
As in so many sprints, any one of them could be on the ball today but is one of them progressive and might be a stand-out?
The answer has to be Going Places, for whom this tough 6f looks ideal after his dual 7f wins under Hollie Doyle at Lingfield.
We’re talking about one of the best sprint jockeys around on a Frankel out of a Dubawi mare. Improved from class 5 to class 3 in a matter of weeks and could well be going places. Can she negotiate the 10 stall?
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE: Going Places 5.1
ONTARIO LOOKS BETDAQ VALUE AT 7.3
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket (Free Handicap) Winners of this are usually only ‘nearly horses’ these days: 4th, 6th and 7th in recent Guineas.
Ontario is 17th off 109 in the top two-year-olds list for 2020 and 7th in the Ballydoyle rankings. He missed the board altogether in the European Free Handicap which ends at 110.
After Charlie Appleby ran away with the Feilden Stakes on Day 1 of this Craven Meeting yesterday (with the one-two Highland Venue and Secret Protector), punters dived in and made Naval Crown hot favourite for today’s race from an early-doors 5-1.
Naval Crown beat a Group-2 winning juvenile at Newmarket (July Course) when they met again at Meydan in February, with the pair eight lengths clear of the remainder.
The ratings have Naval Crown (108) closing down Ontario (109) but in receipt of a pound, even with a 4lb penalty. That puts them dead level at the weights.
The ones they wanted in early markets last night were Percys Lad (surely needs further) and Royal Scimitar, fourth in the Acomb to the Criterium Saint-Cloud winner Gear Up, who was almost two lengths off Ontario in the Royal Lodge.
Betdaq value Ontario 7.3
FRANKIE’S BACK TO CLAIM A DIAMOND
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket (Earl of Sefton Stakes) Mark Johnston’s Overwrite pulled off another front-running triumph for the stable on Newmarket’s opening day but only just, and helped by the concession of more than a stone from the second horse home.
Stablemate Marie’s Diamond is likely to try the same trick this afternoon. It worked here for him in a Listed last June and the same tactics attempted a 40-1 major upset at Royal Ascot but in the end he was no match for the first two in the Group-1 Queen Anne Stakes.
Target today is Global Giant, who has himself won three at Listed level: Newbury , Dundalk and, on the last day, by six lengths at Kempton.
In between he was beaten only a neck under Frankie Dettori in the £250,000 Saudi Cup, with the runaway 2019 Irish Derby winner, Sovereign, a nose back in third.
Frankie comes in from the cold today to pilot Global Giant in what could be a brutal battle from the dip. The extra furlong for Marie’s Diamond and that finishing ramp could hand it to Frankie.
HOW TO EARN SOME GUINEAS ‘OVERS’
⭕ 3.35 Newmarket (Nell Gwyn Stakes) Like the Free Handicap, this trial has recently produced fillies just short of the very top, finishing 3rd and 6th in the Guineas.
Since the great days of Pebbles, Oh So Sharp and Sonic Lady more than 30 years ago when the race was fashionable, only Speciosa (2006) has stepped up from the Nell Gwyn to Classic glory.
Losers do better. Guineas winners Sky Lantern (2013) and Billesdon Brook (2018) were both beaten in today’s trial.
If the grapevine has it right, Aidan O’Brien’s Camelot princess Santa Barbara is ‘the one’ for the first fillies’ Classic (3.0 favourite in the BETDAQ Sportsbook), though second, third and fourth in her Curragh maiden all failed to score.
Going into the Nell Gwynn, your choice of Love Is You and Mother Earth (both 17.0), Saffron Beach (21.0), Sacred (34.0), Divine Light (41.0) and Tawahub (50.0) tempt you in the Sportsbook with the prospect of some ‘overs’ should she win today.
Love Is You had only to be pushed out at Newbury in October to beat Gift List, who had been second in a huge-field auction race and finished second in a Grade 2 in America this month.
But the Newbury win was on heavy ground and Love’s trainer, Roger Charlton, is not much loved by punters with only 1-26 this year (3yos 0-18).
I shall hope Love Is You is well enough backed for me to lay her, while I have a tad on Chocaya, whose French form has turned out to be top trials material over there.
Betdaq value Chocaya 37.0
Lays Logic Love Is You
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 5pts win GOING PLACES
2.05 Cheltenham (win 10 at 8.7)
BET 1.5pts win ROMAIN DE SENAM
2.25 Newmarket (win 12)
BET 2.25pts win ONTARIO
2.40 Cheltenham (win 10 at 5.1)
BET 2.5pts win CAPTAIN TOM CAT
3.00 Newmarket (win 10, nap)
BET 9pts win GLOBAL GIANT
3.35 Newmarket (win 30, place 10)
BET 1pt win and 2pts place CHOCAYA
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