UNBUCKLED (NAP) IS A 7-4 BELTER: The strike rate on Daqman’s naps has temporarily dropped but his starting prices are higher. Let’s see what he can do at Aintree tomorrow, following Haines (WON 9-2) on Saturday and Unbuckled (WON 7-4) yesterday. There’s a banker today at Nottingham.
TODAY: GRAND NATIONAL ABC: In ‘The Changing Face Of The Grand National’ Daqman introduces his ABC guide to the top 40 in Saturday’s race, which he thinks will be the last before enhanced trials are introduced.
TOMORROW: AINTREE FIRST DAY: Tomorrow’s first day of the Aintree festival could see Daqman’s triple-value bet for the Pot Of Gold back in action, as Willie Mullins attacks Paul Nicholls’ hold on the trainers’ title. Look out for the Aintree Bowl, the Aintree Hurdle, the Red Rum Chase and the Fox Hunters.
CHANGING FACE OF THE GRAND NATIONAL
It’s the Marathon Gold Cup. The modern Grand National is packed with horses of Graded-chase experience who have shown enough quality to run at a Cheltenham festival.
There were no winners in the 20 years up to 2005 carrying more than 11st. Since then, no fewer than six have scored between 11st and the 11st 9lb last year. Class rules, ok.
In that time seven winners out of 10 were aged 10 or 11 but only one 12-year-old has won it since 1995, and Many Clouds last year was only the second eight-year-old winner since 1992.
Former winner Pineau De Re, last year’s fourth Alvarado, and the dual Cheltenham scorer Cause Of Causes (NH Chase and Kim Muir) will miss out unless several come out above them in the handicap. First to be let in, if there’s a drop-out, is Bishops Road, winner of the Haydock Park Grand National Trial.
It must now happen that, to remove some of the lottery element regarding who takes part, such trials will need to be given bigger prominence in a new set of qualifications.
This in turn would enhance each trial race, all to the good for those who think the whole season geared to Cheltenham. This is how the top 40 runners tick the boxes in what could be the last National based solely on the official handicap:
MOUSE COULD RULE AGAIN WITH 50.0 SHOT
Two Nationals in 12 days? The Daqman column may only have Kruhzlinin left of its ante-post bets, as Cause Of Causes seems so far down the list that he won’t get in.
So we’ll add a Ton-Up punt and have a couple of points on the top one in the ABC guide, Rule The World (50.0 offers in the BETDAQ ante-post orange).
Rule The World is trained by Mouse Morris who won the Irish National for Daqman on Easter Monday with Rogue Angel (WON 16-1 from 34.0 on BETDAQ).
5.15 Aintree, Saturday (Grand National, 4m 2f 74yd)
A Placed beyond 3m (10 out of 10)
B Ran in Graded chase (8 our of 10)
C Ran at Cheltenham festival (8 out of 10)
D Aged 9 to 11 (18 out of 20)
E 10st 6lb to 11st 6lb (13 out of 16)
F Not fallen or twice PU/REF/UR in chase
X Trainer in particularly good form
ABCDEFX Rule The World
Runner-up in the 2015 Irish Grand National (3m 5f) for the same trainer who won that race this year with Rogue Angel and currently has stable form-figures of 11410.
Second in the Neptune and sixth in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham, Rule The World was more recently third to Rogue Angel in the Kerry National over 3m and this strong-staying prominent racer should be suited by Aintree and ground with ease but which is not winter soft.
ABCDEF Just A Par
Lost his way as a novice but returned to form when giving a lump of weight to the winner at Exeter on the last day, only his third start since winning the Sandown Gold Cup (3m 5f, good) in this month last year wearing blinkers (left off at Exeter).
Needs a real stamina test and gets on well with Sean Bowen but a horse who lies out of his ground and must respond to the need to get a good position on the final circuit or forfeit his chance.
ABCDEF Kruzhlinin
Got round twice at Aintree in 2014 when only seven, passing tired horses at the end of the Becher Chase (3m 2f over the National fences) and 10th in the National itself, despite being hampered early on in the race.
Saved up for Saturday and an early ante-post bet for this column. The stable appears to be back from a lean spell, with three winners from the last five still standing.
ABCDEF Shutthefrontdoor
The Jonjo O’Neill stable, responsible for Tony McCoy’s National winner, Don’t Push It (2010), has had a moderate season by its standards.
Lightly raced, Shutthefrontdoor – only eight chases in his career – has been seen only four times since winning the Irish Grand National 2014 for Saturday’s rider, Barry Geraghty, and was fifth in last year’s Liverpool National, going with the pace but tiring three from home.
ABCDEF Soll
The big horse was seventh after mistakes in the 2013 National and had won only a veterans’ chase in between when ninth to Many Clouds last year, fading late on after breaking a blood-vessel. He’s 13lb higher now after another veterans’ chase win and his chance has gone.
ABCDEX Ballycasey
Brought down in 2015 National and good efforts at Punchestown and Cheltenham since. Needs distance of ground. Dam related to National winner Royal Athlete
ABCDEX Boston Bob
Punchestown Gold Cup winner of 2014 (going good) but generally disappointing until back to form at Fairyhouse (3m 1f heavy) on the last day, beating stablemate On His Own. Hard to have faith in him but Ruby Walsh will ride.
ABCDEX Double Ross
Not won since January 2014, though placed at Cheltenham festival as a novice and back to his best when fourth there in PP Gold Cup in November (Buywise second), showing his liking for being up with the pace.
ABCDEX First Lieutenant
Runner-up to Boston Bob in the Punchestown Gold Cup 2014 but has failed to score since the Aintree Bowl of 2013, though good efforts in the autumn last year when third in the Newbury Hennessy and second in the Lexus (both in the mud), setting his rating right back to the level at which he began to struggle before.
ABCDEX Hadrians Approach
RSA Chase third at Cheltenham in 2013 and Sandown Gold Cup winner two years ago, had a nice pipe-opener for the National in a Grade 3 at Kempton in January.
ABCDEX O’Faolains Boy
Has not lived up to the promise of his 2014 RSA win and has to bounce back after one small-field success since. Handicapper refuses to budge. Trainer five out of eight at the turn of the month.
ABCDEX Sir Des Champs
Top novice-chase double back to back at Cheltenham and Punchestown in 2012, and won the Leopardstown Hennessy and Punchestown Gold Cup the following year, sandwiching a Gold Cup second at Cheltenham in between.
Injured and in nothing like that form since, so the handicapper has dropped him 19lb; a hidden horse now, looking highly dangerous if back to his best, set only 10st 13lb.
ABCDEX Triolo d’Alene
Another name from the past yet still only nine. The 2013 Newbury Hennessy Gold Cup winner has had only four starts since pulling up in the 2014 National; off for a year with injury, but bounced back at Kempton and given another, shorter holiday since.
ABCDE Gallant Oscar
Leinster National winner two years ago and good third in 2015 Ultima Chase at Cheltenham before winning a Grade B at the Punchestown festival.
Big-handicap-winning stable is struggling to make an impression this season.
ABCDE Morning Assembly
There’s more than the Willie Mullins outfit in Co Carlow. Neighbour Pat Fahy has Grade-1 hurdles winner Morning Assembly perfectly poised at the weights under the evergreen prizefighter of the turf Davy Russell.
Beat Don Cossack as a novice, third in both RSA Chase and Punchestown Champion Novice of 2014. Another forced into a long break but jumped brilliantly on his return at Fairyhouse in January and fourth (Holywell second and Kruzhlinin fifth) in the Ultima at the Cheltenham festival. A much better horse on top of the ground.
ABCDE Rocky Creek
Won a Grade-3 at Kempton a year or so back, but never the same horse that raised high hopes of the National when a dashing fifth in 2014, cutting out a lot of the running.
Faded in last year’s race and again when attempting the Champion Chase at Down Royal in October. But we now know that was an impossible task, since the winner that day was recent Cheltenham Gold Cup hero, Don Cossack.
ABCDE The Druids Nephew
Upwardly mobile trainer, and upward curve in the horse’s ratings until stopped 10 lengths by The Last Samuri in the Grimthorpe a month back.
A winner at last year’s Cheltenham festival, he was well backed to follow up in the Grand National and was in front going well four out until he pitched on landing. Form reads as if being geared up for another attempt on Saturday.
ABCDF Highland Lodge
Doubtful runner; needs horses to come out.
ABCDF Many Clouds
Newbury Hennessy winner of 2014 and sixth in the 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup, he then won last year’s Grand National when left in the lead five out.
Still only nine, and quietly campaigned since, returned to form by slamming Unioniste 10 lengths at Kelso a month back, and could be the first to score back to back since Red Rum (1974). Now rated 5lb higher but carrying only 1lb more.
ABCDX Saint Are
Second last year after being third in the Becher and now rated close to the winner, Many Clouds, just 3lb higher. Has completed over the National fences four times.
ABCDX The Romford Pele
A good-ground hat-trick completed at the end of 2014 sent his rating soaring 22lb. It’s dropped since then and he’s been kept to hurdles this year. Stable in great heart.
ABCD Holywell
Beat Don Cossack 10 lengths as a novice, and showed his class with fourth to Coneygree in 2015 Gold Cup. Second in the Ultima at Cheltenham (Kruzhlinin fifth) suggests he’s right back to his best.
ABCD Home Farm
Third in 2013 Irish Grand National then fifth same year in PP Chase at Leopardstown. But failed to place in six starts since winning at Thurles first time back for the 2014-15 season.
ABCD Silviniaco Conti
Winner of seven Grade-1 chases, fourth and seventh in consecutive Cheltenham Gold Cups and King George winner of 2014, stacking up more than £1m in prizemoney.
Back to form in scintillating style, 20 lengths winner of the Ascot Chase in February, but stamina doubt for Saturday’s trip remains.
ABCEF Wonderful Charm
Hat-trick as a novice but a nearly horse since. Not improved a pound in 10 races from December 2013, and pulled up Sandown Gold Cup when trying a marathon trip.
ABCE Unioniste
Sixth in Many Clouds’ Hennessy but fell in the National last year, and well behind Just A Par in Sandown Gold Cup.
ABCX Pineau De Re
Doubtful runner; needs horses to come out.
ABC Cause Of Causes
Doubtful runner; needs horses to come out.
ABDE Goonyella
Consistent staying chaser. Seventh in both Irish Grand National and Leopardstown PP Chase in 2014. Won Midlands National and second Scottish National 2015, getting round Aintree in the Becher. Second in the Leinster National a month ago.
ABD Alvarado
Doubtful runner; needs horses to come out.
ABCEX On His Own
Luckless animal, second both 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup and Lexus. Struggled after with rating of 164 and drop of 8lb probably too late for a 12-year-old in this quality company.
ABCE Vics Canvas
Split Just A Par and Le Reve in Sandown Gold Cup a year or so ago, and jumped well, fifth, in the Becher Chase over the National fences in December. But 13 now
ABEF Onenightinvienna
A year or two young for this and stable out of form. Consistent in bumpers, hurdles and chases; won or placed in 10 of 11 Rules races. Just needs time.
ABE Aachen
Beat Wonderful Charm in a Grade 3 at Cheltenham in December and close finish with Soll in veterans’ chase final at Sandown (heavy) but 12 now and won’t have the pace for this.
ABE Ucello Conti
Ex-French, second in PP Chase at Leopardstown in December and third Thyestes Chase since joining Gordon Elliott, both on heavy ground. Needs another year or two.
ABX Bishops Road
Doubtful runner but needs only one horse to come out.
AEFX The Last Samuri
Bold jumper who shot up 21lb for Christmas win at Kempton and 10-lengths defeat of The Druids Nephew in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster. Lacks a bit of class and only eight.
BCDE Ballynagour
Won Cheltenham handicap at the 2014 festival and ran up to Silviniaco Conti in the Aintree Bowl at last year’s National meeting. Lost his way after and needs to bounce back, though stable doing better this year.
BCDE Black Thunder
Landed a hat-trick as a novice and went on to Graded places but poor efforts since and distant view of Le Reve on the last day
BCDE Buywise
Silver Trophy winner at Cheltenham 2014 and fifth PP Gold Cup there. Stepped up on that with narrow defeat same race in November and excellent third in Great Yorkshire in January, giving lumps of weight to the first two. Can make jumping errors.
BCDE Katenko
Modest form since winning Grade-3 Murphy at Cheltenham in January 2013, and stable not firing at present.
BCEF Gilgamboa
Third Grade-1 Punchestown Chase, fourth PP Chase at Leopardstown in the autumn, and running-on fifth on good ground in the Ryanair at Cheltenham
BCF Vieux Lion Rouge
Unseated rider when would have split Aachen and Wonderful Charm at Cheltenham in December, and faded in NH Chase back there for the festival.
BE Le Reve
Good form a year ago, including third to Just A Par in Sandown Gold Cup (good). Back to form same venue last month but well beaten by Kruhzlinin in between
BF Pendra
Fifth in the Ultima at last year’s Cheltenham festival and beat Double Ross for the Gold Cup Chase at Ascot in October. Not seen since fifth, back at Ascot for the Silver Cup in December.
CLEVER MOVE TO FIND A FORTUNE COOKIE
NOTTINGHAM Clever Cookie (3.50 Nottingham) rates a banker bet in the Barry Hills Further Flight Stakes, a drop in class from his Ormonde Stakes victory first time out last season.
Seismos and Giant Redwood are interesting after long absences, and Nearly Caught will be winning later in the year; he’s never scored before August since his maiden and Hughie Morrison’s team is not showing a lot right now.
Alan King’s old plodder First Mohican at 11.5 is the place bet of the race, as he’ll love it heavy. I shall put him in a Ladbrokes’ reverse forecast with the selection.
CATTERICK Hugo Palmer has taken one horse from Newmarket to Catterick before now, and it won. Today he saddles AW-fit Fearbuster (2.00) on the soft ground he will love, according to both sire and dam’s sire.
LINGFIELD Derby-entry Across The Stars (3.10) should provide the hub for your Daq Multiples, leverage for your trebles and acca.
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won with his first runner of 2016 yesterday, and Ryan Moore’s rides at Lingfield on Monday produced 2-3.
KEMPTON The first six home in a Lingfield maiden last October have won nine times since; the exception is another Stoute hope, Kokoni (6.15 Kempton), trading around 4-1 in his first handicap and first run after being gelded.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) CLEVER COOKIE (3.50 Nottingham)
DAQ MULTIPLES 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt win acca: Fearbuster (2.00 Catterick), Across The Stars (3.10 Lingfield), Clever Cookie (3.50 Nottingham), Kokoni (6.15 Kempton)
TON-UP BET (win 100): 2pts win RULE THE WORLD (Saturday’s Grand National)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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