TIMELY EARLY BIRDS UPDATE: Daqman previews Friday’s AW Championships with an addition to his Early Bird horses to follow list, which has already produced the 20-1 Lincoln winner, Bravery.
TRAINERS MISSING STRIKE: He finds a banker at at Nottingham this afternoon, where he opposes two trainers scoring places but no winners.. ‘missing strike badly ,’ says our man.
EARLY BIRDS TO LAND AW TITLES
Early Birds could have a good Friday. They may field three for an AW Championships treble: Convoy, Nimr and Lancelot Du Lac.
Nimr was all at sea in the wide open spaces of the Doncaster mile but is expected to return to form back on a man-made surface.
Lancelot Du Lac is added to the Early Birds list after two good runs in February have set him up for the Sprint final. The list, with nine results so far, is now as follows:
0 Birchwood (Richard Fahey) Unplaced 9-2 favourite at Doncaster in the Cammidge Trophy. Better next time.
1 Bravery (David O’Meara) Won the Lincoln Handicap at 20-1 and could step back up into Pattern company.
1 Convoy (Sir M Stoute) Was able to take the Winter Derby field from a wide berth and his nearest rivals in the market in the Middle Distance Championship – Grendisar and Battalion -finished fifth and sixth that day over Friday’s Lingfield CD
– Deauville (Aidan O’Brien) Unplaced in Dubai. Has four May dates: Naas, Leopardstown, Newbury and The Curragh.
1 Dream Castle (Saeed Bin Suroor) Frankel colt won easily on the belated debut at Doncaster. English and Irish Guineas hope
0 Faithful Promise (Mark Johnston) Swerved the Brocklesby (too green) but ran with promise at Wolverhampton.
– Flash Fire (Charlie Appleby) Placed efforts in Dubai and could bid for Victoria Cup repeat at Ascot in May.
1 Jack Hobbs (John Gosden) Rain helped him land the Sheema Classic at Meydan and put him back in the big time
0 King Of Naples (James Fanshawe) Kept on final furlong at Doncaster with ‘next time’ written all over him.
– Lancelot Du Lac (Dean Ivory) Ran two solid races at Lingfield in February, prepping for the AW Sprint Championship on Friday.
– Limato (Henry Candy) Forget his flop at Meydan on the soft.
0 Lustrous Light (Ger Lyons) Tough task at the weights in a Group 3 on Sunday. Can score again if his sights are lowered.
– Mirage Dancer (Sir M Stoute) Derby-entered son of Frankel didn’t see the track until October. Dante Stakes target in May.
0 Nimr (Richard Fahey) Lincoln trial winner on AW flopped in Spring Mile. Could be a different story in AW championships.
MAKE MOONRISE YOUR BANKER
1.50 Nottingham Frankie Dettori is here for the one ride. Or you could just as well say that he goes all the way back to Kempton for just the one tonight. Whichever one catches your eye as significant.
The link I shall make is that, in this one, he partners Derby entry Al Galayel against a Frankel newcomer, Tango Fire.
At Kempton, it’s Frankie on the Frankel colt, Monarchs Glen (6.45), a Dante Stakes entry. I’ll come back to that one later.
3.20 Nottingham Ryan Moore is 2-2 on Trip To Paris, but that was in his formative years (the horse’s not Ryan’s) and the Gold Cup winner of 2015 has failed to score since.
He was well behind Wall of Fire at Meydan last month and Wall of Fire also beat Elidor at Doncaster in the autumn.
But Elidor, who can go well fresh, was having to give lumps of weight to a three-year-old that day and they are close together at the weights now.
Elidor was favourite in a race like this at York last Spring but was well behind another runner here, Moonrise Landing, though there were excuses.
I prefer Moonrise Landing (at 2.9 BETDAQ) for other reasons. He’s a glass horse who runs only when they have him right, and trainer Ralph Beckett is among the winners.
Wall of Fire’s trainer is missing strike badly. Form figures 3433340, with five of them starting 5-4 and 7-4 favourite, 2-1, 4-1 and 5-1. Oh dear. That’s money well spent (down a deep well, I mean)!
3.50 Nottingham Another decent heat at Colwick Park before the three class-5, but it looks a very open contest and there were five at the front of the BETDAQ market separated by only three points, and with showers forecast on watered ground. Get out of that!
Kevin Ryan (Weekend Offender) is another trainer missing strike woefully. His current figures are 232233033, with his SPs retreating from 5-2 and 9-2 to 12-1 and 25-1 (twice).
And Interconnection (normally needs further) has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft, over my betting weir for his ability to 28.0.
If you then put a line through the older horses, you’re left wondering which of last season’s three-year-olds might progress.
The answer could be G K Chesterrton (5.2 on BETDAQ as I write), who has disappointed since a good start as a two-year-old. But interesing that Godolphin stay loyal and he’s been gelded.
FRANKIE’S MONARCH TONIGHT!
4.00 Catterick Almost as impressive as Michael Bell’s 50% strike rate here is his massive level-stakes profit; he gets some good priced winners.
And Instant Karma, to whom hurdles, AW and turf are all alike, has Lous Steward in the saddle who shares that 50% with Bell. At 6.6 on BETDAQ, money back for the place.
6.45 Kempton I’m coming back to that Kempton race of Dettori’s in which John Gosden, the trainer of Frankie’s solo ride, Monarch’s Glen, defends a 26% strike rate with first-time handicappers .
Monarchs Glen’s market rival is another Classic candidate, Big Challenge, but Godolphin have not been putting Josephine Gordon on their quality animals. She’s been winning in maidens and low-class handicaps.
DAQMAN TIPS (staked to win 20 points, except the banker)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) MOONRISE LANDING (3.20 Nottingham)
BET 5pts win G K CHESTERTON (3.50 Nottingham)
BET 3.5pts win and place INSTANT KARMA (4.00 Catterick)
BET 7.8pts win MONARCHS GLEN (6.45 Kempton)
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