DAQMAN NAPS HAT-TRICK: ALL ODDS AGAINST: Although odds against, Daqman’s Ayr nap yesterday, United Approach (WON 11-10), went clear in the final furlong and won eased down to make it a hat-trick of naps containing more good prices, 7-4 and 5-2 at SP.
WON 11-10 UNITED APPROACH (Tuesday nap)
WON 7-4 SPANISH (Monday nap)
WON 5-2 SARATOGA GOLD (Sunday nap)
ARC COUNTDOWN: WHAT’S GOING ON? Watering with rain expected, and cutting out the opposition. Those are the accusations against Longchamp before the Arc.
ARC COUNTDOWN: Is this the punter’s secret weapon?
VERY ELLEEGANT MISSES THE ARC
Controversy surrounds Sunday’s Arc. The going could be deep despite dry weather, and even the runners are in doubt with the French insisting on a maximum card of 20 for the race.
Verry Elleegant, brought to France from Australia to train for the race, due to be supplemented at a cost of €120,000 switches to the Prix Royallieu.
Two more from the current 22 left in need to come out at tomorrow morning’s declaration stage so the Melbourne Cup winner was unlikely to get a run.
La Parisienne is also only on stand-by as No 21, with connections describing the situation as ‘a bureaucratic farce’ and ‘incomprehensible.’
The ground was good at Longchamp, but with rain expected before the weekend, yet – as ever – the course continues to water to the dismay of such as the Mishriff team.
The Arc has been run on heavy and soft ground for the last three years and the French have often been accused of deliberate watering to the detriment of English runners, equally often denied.
SECRET OF BETTING ON THE ARC?
Here’s six with a special claim on the Arc: Alenquer, Broome, Bubble Gift, Deep Bond, Sealiway and Torquator Tasso, as those who ran last year. That’s one revelation of my investigation into trends and pointers to Sunday’s Arc de Triomphe.
I’ll bring you my ABC guide tomorrow but this tip may be worth taking now: the Arc winner comes from last year’s Arc! It has happened five times in the last eight seasons.
2014 Treve Had won the race in 2013.
2016 Found Ninth to Golden Horn the previous year.
2018 Enable Had won it in 2017.
2019 Waldgeist Fourth to Enable the previous year.
2020 Sottsass Third to Waldgeist in 2019.
Note that all were older horses – aged 4 barring Waldgeist (5) – all improving with age, beating three-year-olds who were not up to the task. In fact, in the last nine years, just a trio of three-year-olds have won (Treve, Golden Horn, Enable).
You must decide whether any of these second-season animals are that good: Luxembourg, Vadeni, Onesto, Westover, La Parisienne (doubtful).
⭕ SPOTLIGHT: 3.05 Longchamp, Sunday (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, 1m 4f)
Titleholder (4-9-5) rated 118: winner on good and good to firm; 1m 2f, 1m 3f, 1m 4.5f, 1m 7f, 2m. Best form at Hanshin, Osaka-Kobe, Japan. Best win: two Grade 1s at Hanshin, each worth £1.3m.
TITLEHOLDER Winner of £3.7m from 5-9 in the last 18 months, taking the Tanno in May (beat 121-rated Deep Bond seven lengths), then the Kinen in June, with Deep Bond closer (four-lengths fourth). Dam’s sire, Derby winner Motivator; dam family of 1,000 Guineas winner, On The House.
DANZAN TO BACK UP HIS BRONZE
⭕ 2.45 Nottingham (Sprint Final) Five runners were winners the last day, but only Danzan and Phoenix Star have won back to back before in this field mainly of strangers to class 2.
Much of these series which are so popular with the planners can be seen as mainly class-4 animals in competition to earn success at a higher grade, determined by the prizemoney.
Danzan won the Ayr Bronze Cup (class 2), enjoying the big field and fast pace. So he is in form, and goes up only a pound, taking Sean Kirrane’s allowance into account.
He likes the trip and ground, and won’t fail for lack of stamina, having already won a 7f contest.
Phoenix Star was winning in class 5 so this step up three grades would be a tall order in normal circumstances. Another last-time winner, King Of Tonga is up in the weights but that victory was in class 2.
Good Earth is also up the handicap but he was second in the class-2 Great St Wilfrid, though has won only up to class 4.
Charles Hills has been scoring at 50% (6-12 in five days up to Sunday). He got Willoughby Bay down to a workable mark and she gained a lot of experience battling for victory at Chepstow. Could go on from there.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 8.4 Danzan, 17.5 Willoughby Bay
HAGGAS HAS TATHBEET SORTED
⭕ 3.20 Nottingham (Middle-Distance Final) Poor quality race for all its high-falutin title and winners are not to be followed (they’ve won just 2-48 in the last four seasons).
It’s ideal for something to be dressed up for a one-off. How about a gelding op, with added tongue-tie and cheekpieces, and claimed off!
Put that altogether and you get Tathbeet, who has already won a race (1m2f Windsor) and could be value, as a William Haggas contender.
BETDAQ value 5.5 Tathbeet
FRED BEAR TEAM IS CHERRY RIPE
⭕ 3.55 Nottingham (Stayer’s Final) Is my Lays Logic allowed to quote Nietzsche who said that, to achieve immortality, you have to die three times in life.
I certainly wouldn’t be seen dead backing the eponymous nine-year-old, trained Brian Ellison, to put back-to-back wins together here.
One-time Fred Winter third, Nietzsche had gone 13 races (hurdles, chases and Flat) before he scraped home a neck in a class-5 at Catterick. This is closer to its class-2 billing than the previous middle-distance final.
Progressive hat-trick winner at the turn of the year, Melakaz, was beaten only a length earlier in the month after a break.
Alpine Stroll is 2-2 at Nottingham and his 7lb claimer, Connor Planas, has 7-11 in the frame last week, two of them winners.
The four-year-old made all here in his qualifier, beating Cherry Cola a couple of lengths giving 6lb, but with Cherry Cola given too much to do and massively better off here.
There’s now a 15lb difference, with Cherry Cola’s connections, Sheena West and Rose Dawes, having done us proud with 16-1 winner, Fred Bear, on Sunday.
There’s another Charlie Hills here. Vaynor looked progressive in low grades but hasn’t coped with extra weight and the step up to class 4 but could go well in this company, getting a lump of weight and with Hayley Turner booked.
BETDAQ value 10.5 Cherry Cola, 16 Vaynor
UNBEATEN SO 5.8 RINGS THE BELLE
⭕ 6.00 Kempton Notre Belle Bete is 3-3 on AW, a winner here at this level. The gelding’s 0-12 reads like the grey is rubbish on turf but, in fact, was placed in a class 2 at Newmarket and ran in the Royal Hunt Cup.
⭕ 6.30 Kempton Base Note is useless on turf but put back-to-back wins together on AW, landing gambles at odds on for both. Returns to AW tonight in blinkers.
BETDAQ value 5.8 Notre Belle Bete, 13.5 Base Note.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.45 Nottingham (win 20)
BET 2.75pts win DANZAN
BET 1.25pts win WILLOUGHBY BAY
3.20 Nottingham (win 20, nap)
BET 4.5pts win TATHBEET
3.55 Nottingham (win 20)
BET 2pts win CHERRY COLA
BET 1.25pts win VAYNOR
6.00 Kempton (win 20)
Bet 4pts win NOTRE BELLE BETE
6.30 Kempton (win 20)
BET 1.5pts in BASE NOTE
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