FOUR NAPS UP INSIDE A WEEK: Get away! Daqman yesterday made it four naps in the last week, ahead of super Saturday, British Champions Day.
WON 8-13 GETAWAY DRUMLEE (Tuesday nap)
WON 10-11 FLYING HONOURS (Saturday supernap)
WON 5-2 TAMARAMA (Thursday nap)
WON 1-1 LIBER POWER (Wednesday nap)
CHAMPIONS DAY COUNTDOWN: Daqman checks out the stats and form facts for Saturday’s British Champions Sprint, and goes to Kempton, Nottingham and Wetherby in search of a winner or two today.
WHY OUTSIDERS WIN THE SPRINT
⭕ 2.00 Ascot, Saturday (British Champions Sprint) This so-called champions sprint is no such thing. With the exception of 2015, when Muhaarar came to win the race on a Group-1 four-timer, most winners in the decade had been Group 3 players at best.
And the last five winners of this championship have had 31 races in total since they took the crown without a single success.
If you want more evidence, look at the SPs in the last five seasons: they include 10-1, 16-1, 28-1, 33-1. Just one clear favourite scored in the decade, and that was Muhaarar himself.
That’s a red flag for the Saturday favourite, Creative Force, not simply because he’s favourite but because, as last year’s winner, he has scored in a Group 1. He may have been a force that day but he’s not been creative since.
Like Creative Force, Rohaan loves Ascot and has a progressive profile, from handicap winner at the royal meeting to Group-3 strike there the last day.
In between, his length fourth (not clear run) to Highfield Princess at Deauville in August was as good a Group-1 performance as you’ll find. There’s collateral form in that Naval Crown, second in this to Creative Force last year, finished fourth.
Art Power has won only at Group-3 level and has just returned to form. Brad The Brief made a big leap forward to take a Group 2 at the Curragh on only his second start of the year. Has had a long holiday and is unexposed.
Still not found your big-odds pretender to the ‘champions’ throne? Well, three-year-olds have won it three times recently, starting with Muhaarar himself.
In ratings order, the three-year-olds are: 115 Perfect Power, 114 Tenebrism, 113 Go Bears Go and 108 Castle Star. Check them out.
Creative Force was racing off 113 when he won it last year; Sands Of Mali (2018) was on 112. And that rare Group-1 winner Muhaarar was a 121.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 3.45 Creative Force, 5.4 Rohaan, 6.8 Art Power, 10 each of four Perfect Power, Tenebrism, Naval Crown, Brad The Brief; 16 Castle Star, 19 Go Bears Go.
CHAMP IS CLIMBING THE LADDER
⭕ 3.30 Nottingham This handicap is a favourite’s race, in which three year-olds hold the upper hand with six out of eight.
James Doyle has had a winner since his return from a bad fall and Marhaba The Champ is his only mount today. The Champ is showing the improvement of a Galileo, with his last two runs both steps up the ladder.
Mr Alan has won only his maiden, always a bad sign. Better form in a higher grade the last day but winner and second which he separated both failed in their races before and after that one.
Cumulonimbus is on a hat-trick but is 12lb higher than the first of his back-to-back wins and up two grades on the second.
BETDAQ value 2.78 Marhaba The Champ
SHE’S A DAB HAND FROM THE FRONT
⭕ 3.05 Wetherby We seem sure of a good run from Whoshotthesheriff, a CD winner at Wetherby and goes well fresh, with form after a break of 2112311, still standing. BETDAQ 4.5 Whoshotthesheriff
⭕ 5.15 Nottingham A low stall is needed in big-field sprint handicaps at Nottingham. Soft ground and the draw history of this race are strong pointers: result by stall in the last seven seasons: 1, 1, 3, 5, 1, 5, 1.
Front-runner Shesadabber (gate 2), winner four times on the soft, could be hard to catch with conditions in the mare’s favourite. Worth a punt at BETDAQ 8.8.
KEMPTON’S GETTING ‘OUT’ STAKES
⭕ 7.00 Kempton With the exception of Badri, Tyger Bay and Treacherous, the runners in this sprint handicap have spent most of their time racing over 7f, but Ivasecret, Total Commitment, Treacherous and Tyger Bay are all four CD winners at the 6f.
That may be the way to go: to take Treacherous and Tyger Bay because they are winners at both 6f and 7f, so seemingly versatile and manoeuvrable.
But I’m drawn to three-year-olds at this time of year, and shall look to Out From Under and Love De Vega, both pace horses yet both have stayed on to score over 7f.
Front-running is the Team Johnston style and they have just hit some form. It’s also Love De Vega’s style: he’s been trying to make all over 7f, twice as favourite. Dropping back a furlong should be ideal.
Out From Under is so highly regarded at home that he has started favourite for six consecutive 7f races, never out of the frame until trying Newcastle’s Tapeta but a winner on the Kempton Polytrack on his penultimate start.
Cheekpieces and Harry Davies’s 3lb claim give me hope; Harry rode him when he won at Kempton.
BETDAQ value 3.45 Out From Under, 5.4 Love De Vega
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.05 Wetherby (win 10)
BET 2.75pts win WHOSHOTTHESHERIFF
3.30 Nottingham (win 10, nap)
BET 5.5pts win MARHABA THE CHAMP
5.15 Nottingham (win 10)
BET 1.25pts win SHESADABBER
7.00 Kempton (each to win 10)
BET 4pts win OUT FROM UNDER
BET 2.25pts win LOVE DE VEGA
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