WINNER-A-DAY DAQMAN TRIES TO MAKE A WEEK OF IT: Daqman today tries for an entire week with a winner each day, after keeping up the momentum at 5-2 yesterday, with the nap short-headed at 9-4:
WON 5-2 LET ME BE Tuesday (profit on the day 4.40)
WON 5-4 EURAQUILO Monday (profit on the day 5.40)
WON 9-2 CONCERT HALL Sunday (from BETDAQ 7.0)
WON 5-2 NUGGET Saturday (nap)
WON 4-1 FORBEARANCE Friday
WON 13-8 CAROLUS MAGNUS Thursday
FIVE ACES FOR THE ARC: TODAY IT’S HURRICANE LANE: It’s Day 3 of Daqman’s analysis of his Five Aces for the Arc de Triomphe; the subject this time is Hurricane Lane. He then checks out the four series finals, a heavy dose of handicaps at Nottingham, where the going is the question mark.
RAIN WOULD BOOST HURRICANE
🇫🇷 ARC UPDATE Rain forecast for Longchamp will help Hurricane Run, who is the subject of today’s Five Aces for the Arc (after Adayar and Chrono Genesis in the last two days). There was little between Tarnawa and Adayar at the front of the BETDAQ market, after the latest forfeit stage.
HURRICANE LANE 3yo ch c. Rating: 121. Six wins from seven starts (1-113111) for earnings of £1,469,733 (Godolphin – Charlie Appleby – James Doyle).
Breeding: By Frankel (Same sire as stablemate Adayar) out of a mare who won up to 2m.
Big-race form: Beaten only once; third to Adayar in the Derby (unsuited by the track). Won Dante, Irish Derby, Grand Prix De Paris (powered clear at Longchamp) and St Leger.
Stats Godolphin won in 2001 (Sakhee) and 2002 (Marienbad). Last Irish Derby winners to win the Arc were Hurricane Run (as a 3yo, 2005) and Dylan Thomas (aged 4 in 2007).
Last Grand Prix de Paris winners of the Arc were Bago (2004) and Rail Link (2006), both in the same year. Last St Leger winner was Ballymoss (1958) but not in the same year.
Style: A big horse but a good mover with a fine temperament; picks up well when poised to strike, and speed has increased as he’s strengthened. Not have a hard race in the St Leger.
Going: Has won on good, good to soft, very soft and heavy.
Trainerform: Charlie Appleby has had a sensational year, returning Godolphin to the top of the owners’ list, with winners of the English and Irish Derbys (Adayar and Hurricane Lane) and Jockey Club Derby at Belmont (Yibir) plus, for next year, the top two-year-olds Modern Games, Native Trail and Wild Beauty.
Jockey: James Doyle was riding five consecutive losers at Newbury the day his Great Voltigeur winner, Yibir, won the £390k Jockey Club Derby at Belmont under Jamie Spencer. He’s 3-36 at Longchamp.
MAGIC DOUBLE IN HALF AN HOUR
⚠️ HEADS UP The Jockey Club Grassroots Series is played out at Nottingham this afternoon, with finals in the nursery, sprint, middle-distance and stayers. The going was good to firm this morning with heavy rain forecast at lunchtime.
⭕ 2.30 Nottingham (Nursery Final) Whistledown won her heat for this and the handicapper saw fit to raise her 5lb after an unlucky defeat by a nose at Sandown but that was 5f and she has finished stone last in two outings since.
Eternal Glory has ‘done a Mark Johnston’ already – making most at Pontefract – but that was on soft and he hasn’t been effective since.
Eternal Glory is closely matched now with Matty Too, who caught him in the final furlong at Hamilton, and all may depend on how much rain gets into the ground at lunchtime.
Vince Lombardi has been hit 7lb by the handicapper for scoring in a class 6 at Chepstow but rain would help.
Bonita B is a bridesmaid, seven times placed on turf without winning and static in the ratings. She was third at Brighton to Magic Warrior, and can’t catch him today on revised ratings.
The runner-up that day, to whom Magic Warrior was giving 5lb, has improved to an 87 rating which would put him on 10st here.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 5.1 Magic Warrior
⭕ 3.00 Nottingham (Sprint Final) Tim Easterby sends out a team of four: Flying Pursuit (needs the rain), Ava Go Joe (won only his maiden; always a bad sign); East Street Revue (nine times a winner but eight years old now); and hat-trick-seeking grey filly Wade’s Magic.
There’s been a Magic transformation this year under Ella McCain, whose form on the four-year-old is 123311. Wade’s Magic is just 8lb higher since the first of those wins and Ella still claims 5lb. Has won on firm and heavy.
The partnership gets 12lb from another hat-trick seeker, Lezardrieux, whom Wade’s Magic beat, getting only 2lb, when they met in this same month last year.
Prince Of Bel Lir won his qualifier over the CD on soft ground and the booking of James Doyle is a plus, as is Tom Marquand for Ehrmann (also won on soft). So, again, the ifs and buts are about whether rain gets into the ground.
BETDAQ value 8.9 Wade’s Magic
WINK CAUGHT THE EYE AT YORK
⭕ 3.30 Nottingham (Middle-Distance Final) Wink of An Eye (out of gate 8) has won four this summer, mainly with cut in the ground, setting himself up for a big handicap over further at the York Ebor meeting.
Not disgraced, favourite that day; in fact, favourite in five of his last six starts, so clearly highly regarded, and back to his winning trip at 3.15 on BETDAQ this morning.
Wallem gets a lump of weight from him but is drawn even wider in 11, with low numbers a big help railing round these bends and into the straight: no stall higher than six has won in the history of the race.
Wallem was denied a run in his first race gelded and seems well placed in the handicap if he can defy that draw.
Noble Masquerade (stall 3) is another down in trip but his last try at 10f was when second at Sandown in the Spring off 71; he’s now saddled with 82.
Pallas Dancer (10) has struggled with the handicapper after winning three out of four, and is 10lb higher than when last successful.
Bollin Margaret has won four times since June and could defy her mark if the going is not affected by rain.
⭕ 4.00 Nottingham (Stayers Final) Haizoom, runner-up to Dreams Unwind over 1m 4f in August, has gone from strength to strength (59 to a 73 rating) since stepped up to 2m.
With Dreams Unwind on a penalty today, Haizoom could get his revenge at what appears to be the perfect distance (1m 6f) for him.
But – zoom in on this one! – Forever William, who gave 12lb when third to Haizoom at Sandown, is in receipt of a pound today and, with cheekpieces applied for the first time, looks the ‘hidden horse’.
BETDAQ value 6.8 Forever William
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.30 Nottingham (win 20 nap)
BET 5pts win MAGIC WARRIOR
3.00 Nottingham (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win WADE’S MAGIC
3.30 Nottingham (win 10)
BET 4.75pts win WINK OF AN EYE
4.00 Nottingham (win 13)
BET 2.25pts win FOREVER WILLIAM
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
