BETDAQ CRACKERS AT KEMPTON: Daqman sifts the form for five BETDAQ-sponsored races on fireworks night at Kempton Park and finds three strong bets, which he doubles and trebles, including the nap at around 4.0 this morning.
NOVEMBER HANDICAP STATS GUIDE: First Daqman looks forward to Saturday’s final big r ace of the Flat season, the November Handicap at Doncaster.
18 LOSING FAVOURITES IN THE NOVEMBER
Your final Flat fling. Nottingham today and Doncaster on Saturday see out the 2014 Flat (turf) season with the trainers’ table one short of 20 to have topped £1m.
Who can take the last hurrah in the November Handicap? Answer, as ever, the stable which places its horses well. So where do you want to be in Saturday’s race? Check out who’s got it right.
Age The stats say that 10 of the last 13 winners were aged three or four; they are overdue a win after older horses took the last two runnings.
Class Some 11 of the last 13 winners had raced in a class-2 handicap last time out. So look for some quality or potential improvers in the field.
Rating Though the most recent 11 winners this century have been within a 10lb range (rated 89-99), the last three all won off 93. So interesting to see whether David Barron runs Esteaming or Indy, the only ones on 93 this year.
Trip Every winner of the 14 this century had already scored over 1m 2f or more. The November Handicap is 1m 4f but that will take some getting if the ground is soft. Forecast: good to soft (showers).
SP There was a cluster of five winning favourites out of seven between 1989 and 1995. None has won in the 18 seasons since.
Trainers In that time, John Gosden (3) and Brian Ellison (2) have won more than once.
Stalls Three of the last six winners have been drawn 20, 21 and 22.
RYDAN HAS AN ‘ELECTRIC TURN OF FOOT’
5.10 Kempton Park (Betdaq £30 Free Bet 3% Commission Maiden-Fillies’ Stakes) (Division 1) Godolphin won both divisions of this a year ago and have managed to get a split with two in this first division and one in the second, dividing Charlie Appleby’s chances.
His filly Fey is a New Approach, like the dual runner-up, Waldnah, who has experience on her side. That also applies – in better company – to Tazffin, one of two Roger Varian runners (see Khatiba later on) with big chances today.
Tazffin was third to a subsequent Listed winner, so already has collateral form in the Pattern. The other Godolphin, Alhania, is bred for synthetic surfaces, but has a high draw here on the debut.
5.40 Kempton Park (Betdaq No-Premium-Charge Maiden-Fillies’ Stakes) (Division 2) The Appleby hope here, Prying, is a well-drawn sister to a mile winner on Fibresand, the dam from the family of 1,000 Guineas winner Wince.
Caroline Norton (strong in the BETDAQ market early mouse), Cracker and Included are also bred from the top drawer and interesting to see which turns out the stronger of the two divisions.
6.40 Kempton Park (Download the BETDAQ+ App Nursery handicap) Front-runner Manshaa has his best chance yet, getting up to a stone all round, and is the Racing Post’s joint-top rating. But he’s been beaten favourite on his last three starts, and has that bridesmaid look.
Evening Rain might still be damned with a similar epithet after her three times second was followed by Lingfield success only because the winner swerved away the chance of beating her. She has to give weight to the colts and gelding here.
Be Bold’s recent form may be disguised. His gelding op was followed by a good second here in a similar race. The winner, Brave Zolo, had earlier beaten a Group-3 contender over this same CD.
Be Bold had three previous winners immediately behind him when fourth last time out at Goodwood on soft ground that he didn’t much appreciate.
There’s nothing to suggest that sprint-bred Vimy Ridge will appreciate this 7f trip. But Four Seasons may also be somewhat disguised.
He ran in Hootenanny’s Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot before a third at York, giving weight to the first two, and it can’t be held against him that he didn’t get the 7f at Doncaster on soft ground 11 days ago, again giving weight to the principals.
Be Bold is in receipt of 5lb from Four Seasons, and 7lb from the top two, with Cam Hardie making the gap even wider, with another 3lb off. A tasty 8.2 on BETDAQ as I write.
7.10 Kempton Park (Betdaq 50%-Refund-First-Three-Months Floodlit Stakes) Class horses have won this: among them Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud winner Spanish Moon and an even better ‘Moon’, Team Hannon’s triple Group winner, Pether’s Moon.
The 1m 4f looks a bit short for Queen Alexandra winner Chiberta King, who will no doubt be back over hurdles shortly.
The handicapper says that Grendisar keeps on improving (gradually rising 12lb this year), despite his three ‘bridesmaid’ seconds in a row.
Flemish School has tried Listed level before but – like Carnevale – has never won higher than class 4, now trying first-time visors in the hope of getting some black type.
Front-runner Real Jazz has to step up from class 5 but Rydan looked like a Listed horse in a class-3 handicap when hurtling home six lengths clear of Carnevale over a furlong shorter on today’s track. Around 4.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Fire Fighting races off 106, after winning the Kilkerran Cup at Ayr, and fine second at Newmarket last month, but returns to AW here 21lb higher than when last seen on this course in August (third).
Two stables are badly out of form (Mark Johnston and Alan Bailey) and, if there’s a Pether’s Moon here, it’s Rydan, described by Racing Post racereaders six weeks ago at Kempton as ‘an exciting prospect with an electric turn of foot.’
Dark horse of the race is Vivat Rex, tried at Listed level by Aidan O’Brien after a blinkered winning debut. Alan Bailey can revive a cast-off but this is Listed level again and he drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning (I mean the horse, not A Bailey),
7.40 Kempton Park (BETDAQ Commission Free Football on Saturday Handicap) Khatiba has always been consistent but shot forward in another BETDAQ-sponsored race on this track a couple of weeks back. She is well drawn and will not be easy to contain.
Sir Robert Cheval is proving hard to place from his high spot in the handicap but should still beat the sprinters, Outer Space and Swiss Cross, over this 7f.
Lawmans Thunder is still 12lb higher than for the last of his hat-trick of wins over a mile on this course in the Spring. Like returning-to-form Deauville Prince, he has an outside draw.
Bluegrass Blues won over the trip at Lingfield but quickly reverted to his old self and blinkers failed to revive his interest on the last day.
Musaddas loses the hood in favour of cheekpieces; Kevin Stott’s 5lb claim may also help. Capelita lacks experience but also gains Cam Hardie’s 3lb allowance.
The dark horse against Khatiba (3.6 on BETDAQ as I write) may be Forceful Appeal, six times an AW winner who can win after break, although he’s high in the handicap now, and was seemingly unfancied in the early-mouse market.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.7pts win BE BOLD (6.40 Kempton)
BET 6.6pts win (nap) RYDAN (7.10 Kempton)
BET 7.6pts win KHATIBA (7.40 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: Rydan (7.10) and Khatiba (7.40) in 3 x 2pt win doubles and 1pt win treble with Tazzfin (5.10 Kempton)
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