ON THE WINNER-A-DAY ROAD AGAIN: Daqman is today looking for a winner a day for a week, after a run of hits since last Thursday which has included 11-2 and 9-2 winners and a hat-trick of naps. Not forgetting Lays Logic, his 9-4 strike yesterday turned over an odds-on favourite.
WON 9-4 CRIMSON ROAD (Tuesday) BETDAQ XSP 3.57
WON 11-2 MYSTERY MONARCH (Monday) BETDAQ 7.71 taken
WON 6-4 MQSE DE SEVIGNE (Sunday)
WON 9-2 INISHERIN (Saturday)
WON 10-11 ROSALLION (supernap) Haatem 2nd 6-1 same race
WON 9-4 ELECTRIC STORM (Friday nap) BETDAQ 6.4 taken
WON 1-2 ROYAL RHYME (Thursday supernap)
ABC CLASSIC GUIDE: Daqman starts with his ABC guide to Friday’s Oaks. Add the draw recommendation after the declaration stage, and look out for the Derby guide next.
LOOKING FOR AN OAKS OUTSIDER
⭕ 4.30 Epsom, Friday (The Oaks) DRAW: winners by stall last 14 years: 15, 7, 10, 3, 9, 2, 4, 9, 3, 3, 5, 12, 1, 10. Single-figure numbers best.
OFFICIAL RATING of the winner: 107, 99, 108, 96, 103, 102, 119, 107, 99, 103, 116, 108, 109, 113.
WINNING TRAINERS: Aidan O’Brien 10, Team Gosden 4, Ralph Beckett 2. JOCKEYS: Ryan Moore 4.
KEY TO WINNER FINDING
A RATING 102 or higher (11/14)
B FORM won Listed; placed Group race or Trial (13/14)
C STAMINA on the racecourse or in the breeding.
D TRAINER Aidan O’Brien, Team Gosden.
ABC CAUGHT U LOOKING Stamina-bred daughter of dual Derby winner, Harzand, won a Group 3 (soft) at the Curragh in September. Goodish ground against her when fourth at Navan in April over 1m 2f to Ezeliya (see below)
ABC DANCE SEQUENCE Nell Gwyn runner-up, ran green in the dip; expected to improve on that in the 1,000 Guineas but ninth, hanging, more than six lengths behind Ylang Ylang. Needs cut in the ground and a real improvement now.
ABC EZELIYA Well blessed with stamina on the dam’s side; won a Group 3 at Navan in April, with Everlasting third and Caught U Looking fourth. Dermot Weld not in the best of form (1-19).
ABC SECRET SATIRE Failed to settle but still won the Musidora at York, with the form franked by the runner–up in the Height Of Fashion trial at Goodwood.
ABD YLANG YLANG Frankel out of a Shamardal mare (first foal), who won the Fillies Mile at Newmarket on soft and, stayed on, finished fifth in the 1,000 Guineas there. Should stay the trip but not overly endowed with stamina in the pedigree.
BCD RUBIES ARE RED Sister to Arc winner Found. Lost ground home turn when unlucky loser of Lingfield Oaks Trial, half a length down to You Got Me (Treasure 4th), leaving ‘Rubies’ underrated off 97. Ylang Ylang stablemate.
BC FOREST FAIRY Back-to–back wins this Spring, including the Cheshire Oaks (Seaward 3rd). Strong on stamina and trainer particularly good at preparing quality fillies.
BC MAKING DREAMS Won a Group 3 on heavy at Saint-Cloud in April. Trainer landed a Guineas double at the weekend.
BC SEAWARD Needs fast ground. See Forest Fairy
BC WAR CHIMES Within four lengths of the winner over 1m 2f in Group-3 deep ground at Saint-Cloud and Group 2 at Longchamp (Saint-Alary). Bred to do better over a trip.
BC YOU GOT ME See Rubies Are Red. Sire Nathaniel’s stock can make sudden improvement at this stage.
– – TREASURE Big filly who needs more time. Not bred for stamina test. See Rubies Are Red
12.0 BARLEY DROPPED IN CLASS
⭕ 3.10 Beverley This class-4 mile-plus handicap is the best race of the day at Beverley, save our souls and betting money!
Such is its quality that the TOP weight, Zozimus, has had 29 turf races without success (1-35 career total in all disciplines).
The old phrase ‘I’ll be looking elsewhere’ will have been well used. He’s had 27 straight defeats since leaving Ireland in 2020.
Barley’s slide 12lb down the handicap has happened in 12 races since back-to-back wins two years ago, but it might be his turn after hiding away in class 2 and 3 events the last twice. Makeen’s best form is also two years old.
Another thing about low-level form is that usually they don’t have the constitution to keep going; She’s Got Bottle had back-to-back wins at Beverley in the autumn of 2022.
She backed up a Pontefract strike on May 1 with another win at Beverley five days later. But both were class 6 and the hat-trick two grades higher and in the same month seems unlikely.
Poet’s Dawn also had back-to-back success at Beverley but he’s nine now and we’re talking May, 2021, though he did score again here in August, 2022. Tim Easterby also runs Barley, seemingly David Allan’s pick.
Poet’s Dawn and Hartswood have won most prizemoney of any in this contest, and Hartswood has scored at this level. Beltane is not far behind them, boasting Beverley form of 231032; trainer Michael Appleby has won this twice in the last four seasons.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 7.8 Beltane, 12.0 Barley
POST THE PICK AT BETDAQ 13.0
⭕ 4.20 Hamilton Slainte Mhath has been placed five times running (32323) just a precious few pounds higher than when last year’s Springtime sequence went 12101, two of the three strikes at Hamilton.
The good news is that she is here 6lb better off with the winner, nine-year-old Cold Stare, following their one-two at Thirsk (soft) in April.
Catherine Chroi has scored five times this Spring (5-7) but is now 32lb higher than at the start of her class-6 sequence. Claimed off but in the more competitive class-4 level.
Iris Dancer scored 2-2 here at Hamilton in September, starting with a neck defeat of Sacred Falls. Here she now is trying to back up another Hamilton strike, which came off the same mark and the runner-up was again Sacred Falls!
Emily Post should run a dead-heat with Iris Dancer on their form here at Hamilton in the autumn. A place would be cold comfort; I’d like her to win this.
Emily Post was favourite for that autumn race when the yard was missing a beat. Michael Dods is now in top form, striking at near-25% with 10 winners in two weeks. BETDAQ value 13.0
THIS SPRINTER REALLY SINGS
⭕ 7.12 Kempton Change Sings, who has never been beaten at Kempton (2-2) took a big step forward by winning from the front on the Rowley Mile course 11 days back.
Hierarchy ran well in the same race but his forte is soft ground on turf. Though four times a Kempton winner in his younger days, Tyger Bay is on a hat-trick from back-to-back turf strikes, also on soft.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.10 Beverley (win 30, win 12)
BET 2.5pts win BARLEY
BET 1.75pts win BELTANE
4.20 Hamilton (win 12)
BET 1pt win and place EMILY POST
7.12 Kempton (win 12, nap)
BET 4pts win CHANGE SINGS
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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