XSP WINDFALL FROM SNOW DRIFT: Daqman was involved in another gamble yesterday but it was AGAINST the horse he’d backed: Thunder Snow (WON 4-1) eased alarmingly at Leicester from 15-8.. But no worries, particularly if you were on at the new Betdaq XSP. Thunder Snow went off at 5.81.
MORE GOOD ODDS AS PROMISED: Daqman promised you more decent odds today and has bets at 8.8 and 6.0 (twice) from Nottingham this afternoon to the evening meetings at Ripon, where his nap runs in the opener, and the Chelmsford AW track.
EASY ABC (AND MORE!) GUIDE TO THE DERBY: The story all the week is, of course, the very open Derby, due off at Epsom on Saturday. Here’s Daqman’s famous ABC stats-and-facts guide, with EFGH and Factor X for good measure.
CLASS WILL OUT WHATEVER THE GROUND
4.30 Epsom, Saturday (Derby Stakes): The Derby market is fluctuating with the going changed to soft, or good to soft, depending on who you read,but the weather forecast is for fine weather depending on what programme you watch!
A: Won 1m 2f + or placed Guineas or Dante
B: Ran in last five weeks
C: Won a Group race
D: Sire’s stamina index 9.8 or more
E: Two to four career starts
F: Rated 114-121
G: Won two or more races
H: Breeding connection (see Monday’s column)
X: Stable in form
ABCDEGHX US Army Ranger
Opinions were polarised after the Galileo colt just hung on against a determined stablemate, Port Douglas, in the Chester Vase, but I saw it as part of Ranger’s education.
He showed impressive cruising speed, and was never pushed to get a position or punished in the finish. He should have learned a lot from Chester, only his second public outing.
Ryan Moore’s riding decision will decide the favourite on the day. Deauville and US Army Ranger have both won on a sound surface and on heavy. The same applies to Cloth Of Stars.
Wings Of Desire, though a firm-ground winner, is by Pivotal, who is usually associated with soft-ground progeny, but his best British son, Farrh. acted on firm and soft, and it’s a general rule that the very best horses adapt their action to any surface. Class will out.
ABCDFGHX Cloth Of Stars
Supplemented by Andre Fabre after an easy win – his fourth, from good ground to heavy – in the Prix Greffulhe, a trial previously won by Montjeu (French and Irish Derbys) and Pour Moi (English Derby)
ABCDFGHX Deauville
Another Ballydoyle Galileo colt, for whom fast ground was said to be a bonus, enabling him turn around Royal Lodge form with Foundation in the Dante but, wearing a tongue-tie, he was beaten a neck by Wings Of Desire.
ABCDGHX Beacon Rock
Yet another Galileo, third to Port Douglas in the Beresford Stakes, and fourth to Moonlight Magic in the Derrinstown Derby Trial, franking the form himself by winning the Gallinule.
ABCEFX Wings Of Desire
Supplemented after beating Deauville in the Dante despite going into the race with only a Wolverhampton win under his belt and a 22lb lower rating than that rival.
ABCEG Moonlight Magic
Quickened well to win the Derrinstown Derby Trial at Leopardstown from Shogun, Idaho and Beacon Rock at a time when trainer Jim Bolger was just emerging from a very lean start to the season.
ABDEF Massaat
Trained by Sir Michael Stoute’s former assistant, Owen Burrows, who took over from Barry Hills at Lambourn, Massaat went close to instant Classic success for the new guvn’or when running second in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas.
ABDEHX Ulysees
Meanwhile, after the injury to Midterm, Stoute himself has conjured up a new contender in Newbury maiden winner, Ulysees, by a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner. ‘Could be anything.’
ABDEX Across The Stars
Officially on a mere 84 when third at a length and a half to a 104 colt, Humphrey Bogart, in the Lingfield Derby Trial when he got squeezed out. Now finds himself likely second fiddle to Ulysees.
ABDEX Biodynamic
Given a 20lb hike for his third at Newmarket to subsequent Dee Stakes runner-up Linguistic, but trailed in 10 lengths off US Army Ranger and Port Douglas in the Chester Vase.
ABDGX Red Verdon
Supplemented after a rise of 22lb for back-to-back handicaps, with racereaders calling his change of gear at Haydock ‘a devastating turn of foot’, which makes jockey George Baker’s comment after the race a trifle bland (‘He’s much more switched on this season).
ABEGX Algometer
Regarded as a St Leger horse, and one that needs some cut in the ground over shorter. Won the final trial, the Cocked Hat at Goodwood, after running second to Midterm (now out, injured) in the Sandown Classic Trial.
ABGX Humphrey Bogart
Supplemented after second in the Epsom Derby Trial to very smart filly So Mi Dar and then success in the Lingfield Derby Trial (Across The Stars third). Seemed to be heading for the King Edward V11 Stakes but owners forked out to run at Epsom.
ACDEGX Harzand
Ticks plenty of boxes but not the one for a recent run, having been absent since early-April victory in the Ballysax (Leopardstown, heavy) from Idaho and Beacon Rock (Moonlight Magic only fifth). Stamina-laden and looks more of a Cup horse for another year.
BCDGHX Port Douglas
Did his job, of educating US Army Ranger a bit too well, giving him a real scare, going down only a short-head, but the impression remained – confirmed in the market – that Ranger was trying to win it at cruising speed.
Ormito, 11lb behind Port Douglas in that race (using a pound = a length), was close up to Algometer in the Goodwood trial.
BDEHX Idaho
You have to decide: did the form get a big lift when the fifth colt home, Moonlight Magic, turned around Ballysax form, beating Shogun, Idaho and Beacon Rock in the Derrinstown trial? My guess is two or three colts were standing still, while one of them was going forward!
BX Shogun
Doesn’t tick many boxes but is an interesting yardstick for form lines with Galileo Gold, Formation, Stormy Antarctic, Moonlight Magic, Idaho, Beacon Rock, Awtaad and Bravery.. particularly since the handicapper says he’s been running on the spot: rated 108, 108 and 109 last three starts, and goes into the Derby on the same 109.
DEHX Bravery
Tackled the Irish 2,000 Guineas from 12lb to 22lb behind the field but improved at least 9lb (says the handicapper) with a decent fourth (Shogun one and a half lengths back) but steps up in trip on Saturday and, though by Galileo out of a Rainbow Quest mare, his close relatives have all been 7f-1m types.
NOTE: Beacon Rock, Bravery, Deauville, Idaho, Massaat, Port Douglas, Shogun and US Army Ranger are also engaged in French Derby, Chantilly, Sunday (1m 2f, forecast: soft)
ARM YOUR WALLET WITH THE 6.0 WARRIOR
3.30 Nottingham The Warrior, who ran in the 2015 Irish 2,000 Guineas for Aidan O’Brien, demands this step up to a mile after two very decent handicap runs for Amanda Perrett, including staying on in the Victoria Cup (Ascot, 7f), and makes the solo trip to Colwick Park from deepest Pulborough: 6.0 in the BETDAQ orange, as I write.
Express Himself has won only in class 3 and class 4, a 7lb rise in the weights blunting his finish at today’s level in quality races (the Lincoln and the Hambleton). His trainer’s 1-19 on turf also blunts my enthusiasm.
Spark Plug is a once-a-year winner, best at Newbury, where he didn’t do so well 18 days ago in the handicap he’d won last year.
James Fanshawe has just taken two big races – with The Tin Man and Speedy Boarding – but Spirit Raiser is 12lb higher than for his Kempton win in August and is another who has yet to score higher than class 3.
FREEDOM OF CHOICE IN AN OPEN OAKS..
4.00 Nottingham (Nottinghamshire Oaks) They say the professional punter should stick to conditions races where ratings give him an immediate edge.
But, with eight fillies here on ORs within a 5lb range, our pro needs another edge.. or two. Let’s try trainerform.
Luca Cumani is 20% at Nottingham but has had just one winner on turf this year (1-24). Ed Walker is also out of form.
James Tate and David Allan are 50% (2-4) as a team on the course but Clive Cox, who is getting one winner every six starters right now, has around 30% strike rates when using both Adam Kirby and Ryan Tate. Gosden-Havlin are 40%.
Class? Persona Grata, Intimation and Sagaciously have Group entries, though Sagaciously seems to prefer this race to the upcoming Munster Oaks and scored two grades lower than today.
Intimation’s form and breeding (she’s a Dubawi) suggest cut in the ground is needed but she has been kept in training by Sir Michael Stoute for Cheveley Park Stud, which shouts ‘we want black type.’
Among the four-year-olds (9 out of 10 win this), Sound Of Freedom – 6.0 on BETDAQ early mouse – has already got some, albeit from a Group 3 in Italy.
But she was also within a neck of the Prix Jean Romanet (Group-1 Deauville) winner in another Group 1 at Capanelle. She’s won on good ground but the forecast showers would be welcomed.
SHAMSAYA SET TO LAND STABLE HAT-TRICK
6.30 Ripon Simon Crisford is 2-2 with his juveniles this year and one working well, Shamsaya (3.45 best offers), gets 5lb from the colts under the conditions of this Ripon opener. Graham Lee is 27% for the yard.
Flawlessly looks bound to go well but James Bethell is 0-27 on turf this year and has had only nine two-year-olds winners since 2011.
7.40 Chelmsford Persuasive is Group 1 entered but clearly lagging behind stable hopes and Mise En Rose (4.3 offers on BETDAQ) love the track.
8.00 Ripon Paul Midgley had a stinking start to the season (1-49) but things have looked up in the last two weeks (4-19 with eight in the frame out of the last 12 starters).
He saddles Mississippi 3lb lower than when he won this race last season. He was well backed this morning down to 6-1 with bookmakers but I got 8.8. in the BETDAQ orange, greedy boy.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 5pts win THE WARRIOR (3.30 Nottingham)
BET 5pts win SOUND OF FREEDOM (4.00 Nottingham)
BET 8pts win (nap) SHAMSAYA (6.30 Ripon)
BET 6pts win MISE EN ROSE (7.40 Chelmsford)
BET 4pts win MISSISSIPPI (8.00 Ripon)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble THE WARRIOR (3.30 Nottingham), SOUND OF FREEDOM (4.00 Nottingham) and SHAMSAYA (6.30 Ripon)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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