DAQMAN HUNT FOR VALUE AFTER FAVOURITES DOUBLE WHAMMY: It’s the Royal Hunt Cup today and Daqman’s had the winner at 28-1, 16-1 and 12-1 in recent years (see Sunday in the Archive). Yesterday he exploited the favourites, one for a 30-point bet (20 as supernap, 10 as Fortune Cookie) and one to lay.
WON 2-7 PALACE PIER Supernap and Fortune Cookie.
WON (Lays Logic) BATTAASH, unplaced 11-8
SUPERNAPS 80% STRIKE RATE LANDS A PROFIT OF 123 POINTS: Daqman standings after back-to-back naps (7-4 winner on Monday) cover the short prices in supernaps (80% strike rate) and the long shots in the Pricewise value challenge:
DAQMAN 28, PRICEWISE 16
SUPERNAPS 8-10 (profit 123.55)
LAYS LOGIC 9-12
FORTUNE COOKIES 1-2
NAPS (this week) 2-2
44.0 OUTSIDER AMONG THE DAQMAN BULL’S-EYE BETS TODAY: Today ‘s offers taken in the BETDAQ orange include bull’s-eye bets at 10.0, 11.0, 15.0, 16.5, 18.0, 44.0 somewhere in today’s headlines:
👑 FAST-RUN RACE SUITS QUICK SUZY
👑 WAKE UP CALL FOR WORDSWORTH
👑 HER PIER RECOMMENDS THE LADY
👑 NO LORD SO LOVE RATES THE NAP
👑 STOUTE STILL KING OF HANDICAPS
👑 TIPPERARY KNOWS HER WAY HOME
FAST-RUN RACE SUITS QUICK SUZY
🎩 2.30 Royal Ascot (Queen Mary Stakes)
STATS: Gates 12 to 20 have won seven of the last eight; the one stall won the other. Wesley Ward has won three of the last six and probably wishes he’d waited with Kaufymaker, who ran well against the colts over further in the Coventry yesterday.
FORM: Ward’s runner instead is the blinkered Twilight Gleaming, whose chance is hard to see because she beat a stablemate on her only winning run. But she has stall 20, which housed his 2015 winning stable star Acapulco.
Yet (16, Aidan O’Brien) and Quick Suzy (22, Gavin Cromwell) are expected to get a good tow, with Gavin telling Betdaq Tips that he is happy with Suzy and she won’t mind the ground. The fast-run 5f will suit.
I expect Coup De Force (short-runner in 18) to lead Quick Suzy and Twilight Gleaming into a fight. On breeding, it’s a very hard race for Yet to win and the tongue-tie has me worried.
For such as Nymphadora (10), who won a race of winners, the fast and furious 5f will not be easy to get but she will surely have plenty of cover if she tucks in behind those hungry wolves in the high numbers.
Beautiful Sunshine is just what George Boughey deserves after his sensational start but I worry that she is French bred by a sire who is 63% with progeny on the soft.
BETDAQ value 11.0 Quick Suzy
WAKE UP CALL FOR WORDSWORTH
🎩 3.05 Royal Ascot (Queen’s Vase)
STATS: Nine out of 10 winners came from a single-figure draw, five out of eight to Aidan O’Brien.
When the race was over 2m, it threw up Gold Cup heroes like Leading Light (2013) but dropping back to 1m 6f changed nothing: first to win it over shorter was Stradivarius (2017)!
FORM: Wordsworth (stall 5), brother to the 2018 winner, Kew Gardens, is so lazy at home, he’d rather doze among the daffodils.
He can doss in behind Dancing King (in 1) or Golden Flame (10), one or both of whom are likely to ‘do a Johnston’ and take them along.
Wordsworth’s main threat may be Kemari (3), who is a Dubawi out of a half-sister to a St Leger winner.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 10 Kemari
HER PIER RECOMMENDS THE LADY
🎩 3.40 Royal Ascot (Duke Of Cambridge Stakes)
STATS/FORM Four-year-olds are 9-10 but the most progressive mare in the field must surely be Lady Bowthorpe. I entered her in the Fortune Cookies list with the words ‘the only one to get near Palace Pier this season’.
After yesterday’s Queen Anne Stakes, she holds that honour jointly with Lope Y Fernandez, who also got within a length and a half of Palace Pier but always well held.
The going was against Lady Bowthorpe – and not much loved by Palace Pier – when they were one-two in the Lockinge, and she’s won a Group 3 at Ascot on good and a Group 2 at Newmarket on firm.
In fact, today could be a repeat of that 1m 1f Group 2, when Lady Bowthorpe held off the 10-furlong mare Queen Power. Back at a mile today, her Ladyship gets the vote.
Champers Elysee won four in a row last year but her Group-1 strike at Leopardstown was over Peaceful (not seen since) and Fancy Blue, who is another 10-furlong sort.
BETDAQ value 3.8 Lady Bowthorpe
NO LORD SO LOVE RATES THE NAP
🎩 4.20 Royal Ascot (Prince Of Wales’s Stakes)
STATS: Ages four and five (9-10). Ratings: 119 to 125 (four out of six).
FORM: In the absence of last year’s winner, Lord North, this should go to Love, who was just a pound behind him on the ratings and then received 3lb sex allowance.
The worry (which gives us near even money) is that the 2020 Guineas and Oaks winner has not been seen for 300 days.
Armory has crept up the ranks, taking his fourth Group race at Chester recently, but is still 5lb behind Love, including the adjustment.
Sangarius, winner of the Hampton Court Stakes here two seasons back, has mainly been kept to and easy surface.
But, though Audarya ran some cracking races in France on the soft-heavy, she bagged the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare on firm in November, though the value of the form relies on her use of latex.
STOUTE STILL KING OF HANDICAPS
🎩 5.00 Royal Ascot (Royal Hunt Cup)
STATS: Stalls 21 to 33 have won six of the last 10 Hunt Cups, with four-year-olds currently 5-6. A weight below 9st is just 1-9.
Not a favourite in sight, the last eight SPs including 33-1, 25-1, 20-1 (twice) and 16-1 (twice).
Stalls bias to high numbers seemed to apply yesterday, and Teston (out of 17) and Maydanny (24) are the pace horses this afternoon.
Maydanny led the low-stalls group last year (finished seventh) and stall 24 may suit his style much better with good company around him.
FORM: Haqeeqy (out of 21 today) won the Lincoln with his 100 rating claimed off and took in the Queen Anne Trial at Ascot but never looked comfortable. He’s off 107 here, giving winner-since Grove Ferry (8th) a chance to get closer.
Haqeeqy and Brunch (from 25 here) were my Lincoln one-two and that’s how it worked out. It seemed the obvious thing to back Brunch to step up on that but he was beaten into second again at York, and poundage for defeat is slowly mounting up.
Magical Morning (26) won first time out last June. Astro King (27) went third at the finish of a fast-run Thirsk Hunt Cup, after racing wide, and is the type Sir Michael Stoute excels with in handicaps.
Trais Fluors (28) is 8lb higher for a sizzling Sandown win on Saturday but is still well in on old form. Cliffs Of Capri (20) is a dual winner at Ascot but is weighted up to the hilt.
Most of the form for Ascension (29), Layfayette (22) and Hortzadar (18) is on the soft. Finest Sound was second in the Britannia but on soft.
In the low numbers, the unexposed Irish Admiral (6) was bought with this in mind and is better than recent form.
Real World (4) could be anything. Half-brother to stayers but out of a half-sister to Dubai Destination, winner of the Queen Anne (1m) here in 2003. Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor pulled off a hat-trick on Monday.
BETDAQ value 9.2 Astro King, 16.5 Magical Morning, 18 Irish Admiral, 44 Real World.
TIPPERARY KNOWS HER WAY HOME
🎩 5.35 Royal Ascot (Windsor Castle Stakes)
STATS: The last three winners have come out of stalls 22, 24 and 20, and yesterday’s Coventry seemed set for the two highest stalls until the winner charged down the far rail.
FORM: Artos, earlier in the Queen Mary, will tell us a bit more about Wesley Ward’s chances with Ruthin (stall 12) here. Ruthin beat Artos six lengths on his only start, so must be taken seriously.
Typically, both Ruthin and the other Ward contender, Golden Bell (21), break well and could take the middle-to-high along, but the Ward runners yesterday, Kaufymaker and Marven, did not get home.
Jim Bolger apart – and he really is apart from the others after the Poetic Flare act – the Irish are not strong this week and Amalfi Coast for Aidan O’Brien is another one eeking out the energy with a tongue-tie.
Maybe John Quinn can make it a Tipperary Sunset and beat the Irish from a nice draw in 18. Has won when there was ease in the ground but Quinn insists he’ll be even better with the going on top.
BETDAQ value 15.0 Tipperary Sunset
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.30 Royal Ascot (win 50, win 10 place)
BULL’S-EYE BET 5pts win and 3.5pts place QUICK SUZY
3.05 Royal Ascot (win 20)
BET 7pts win WORDSWORTH
BET 2pts win KEMARI
FORTUNE COOKIE
3.40 Royal Ascot
BET 10pts win LADY BOWTHORPE
TODAY’S NAP
4.20 Royal Ascot
BET 10pts win LOVE
5.00 Royal Ascot (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 6pts win ASTRO KING
BET 3.25 pts win MAGICAL MORNING
BET 3pts win IRISH ADMIRAL
BET 1.25pts win REAL WORLD
BET 1.75pts place (win 10) REAL WORLD
5.35 Royal Ascot (win 30)
BET 2pts win TIPPERARY SUNSET
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
