COUNTDOWN TO THE ARC: SHOCK AS DAQMAN RATES THE FAVOURITE A LAY: After big-race success on consecutive weekends with Highland Colori (WON 20-1) in the Ayr Gold Cup and Educate (WON 8-1) in the Cambridgeshire, Daqman is on the trail of Sunday’s Arc winner. He insists that it won’t be the favourite, Orfevre. He reckons he’s a lay.
ROSACEOUS ‘TOO BIG’ IN BETDAQ HANDICAP: Daqman expects Rosaceous to bloom at Kempton Park, rating her ‘too big’ at 9.4 this morning in one of four BETDAQ-sponsored events, which include a cracking £10,000 nursery, and with the Rosaceous handicap attracting winners of 40 races.
COUNTDOWN TO THE ARC: KIZUNA 8, ORFEVRE 6
Is it a Marienbard (2002) or Tony Bin (1988) year? Well, the Japanese have Sunday’s Arc favourite, reflecting their burgeoning stock in the racing world since Tony Bin became leading sire there, and the Germans might recall that Marienbard had just completed a double of grand prix wins in Dusseldorf and Baden-Baden, the Baden one won this year by Novellist.
But that’s not my point. Those two were the last five-year-olds to win the Arc since 1975, surrounded by a sea of younger horses: three-year-olds 23, four-year-olds 12
It’s simply the case that, over the age of four, most Flat-race horses plateau or begin to lose their ability, caught up and passed by the young improvers.
There are the rare examples of age and experience winning through, like Tony Bin and Marienbard, but ‘rare’ means a low probability and that, translated into percentage chance, means the sort of odds you could get about that isolated pair of winners of the last 38 years: 40-1 and 15-1.
But there’s been only around 2-1 Orfevre for Sunday. And he’s had his chance, second last year. Yes, it’s even bigger odds against that a horse comes back from Arc defeat to score the following year. I can’t even find one: can you?
Orfevre returned to win a recognised Arc trial, the Prix Foy, recently and was unlucky in the big race last year. That’s how the Press blurbs it.
But, if you dig deeper, you will find – in the Racing Post analysis for Longchamp 2012 – ‘threw away a clear advantage by hanging to the far rail.’ It was a moderate Arc and the race was run on heavy ground. Some top horses in it, like Camelot, didn’t perform.
And Orfevre’s Prix Foy win? Well, he beat a Listed winner, Very Nice Name (21 lengths behind Novellist in the King George) and a Group-3 winner, Pirika, with an Italian colt fourth. Five lengths behind him was Haya Landa, whom he’d beaten eight lengths in last year’s Arc.
No, much the most persuasive performance on Foy day was by Orfevre’s Japanese compatriot Kizuna in the Prix Niel, which the stats say is a truly super trial for Sunday.
Having just the sixth race of his life, Kizuna, the Japan Derby hero, racing on soft ground for the first time, burst the bubble of the favourite, Grand Prix De Paris winner, Flintshire.
Flintshire was only fourth as Epsom Derby winner and fifth, Ruler Of The World and Ocavango, filled the places, with Kizuna impressive though only a narrow scorer.
In terms of overall form, Orfevre would pip Kizuna in my match ratings, but in terms of Sunday’s Arc, not so. The Japanese number one is Kizuna. I shall lay Orfevre.
DAQMAN’S MATCH VERDICT: Kizuna 8, Orfevre 6. OFFICIAL RATINGS: Orfevre (approx.) 122, Kizuna (approx.) 119
TODAY’S RACING; FIGURE OF SPEECH THE NAP
Everything in the Kempton garden’s Rosaceous tonight. That’s at a terrific 9.4 on BETDAQ this morning. But first a bet on Rufoof (3.45) at Newcastle at 3.55, travelling up from Lambourn and clear in the market as I write after the defection of the second favourite.
And, at Salisbury, Figure Of Speech (4.30) is the first of a pair of two-year-olds ‘expected’ for Charlie Appleby today, the second one at Kempton on the BETDAQ scene.
Figure Of Speech, just pipped by Brown Sugar in the Sirenia, then tackled the Prix Morny, which is probably about the best juvenile contest of the year so far, with No Nay Never beating the Cheveley Park winner, Vorda, with the Queen Mary and Moyglare heroine, Rizeena, in third.
6.10 Kempton (Winners Are Welcome At Betdaq EBF Maiden Stakes) The winner of this last year came from stall 4 and yesterday’s 6f scorer on the course was from gate 5, emphasizing the difficulties of a wide draw.
These races are also hard for newcomers to win, so no wonder those low-drawn with experience are the quartet at the front of the BETDAQ market.
But which one of the four? Charlie Appleby has quickly established himself among the leading percentage trainers at Kempton and Almargo is his sole AW candidate tonight from seven runners on the day.
Appleby’s youngsters are in fine form. In the last six days, he has had two winners and four placed, and Almargo will be hard to beat. Pool House likes to be in the van and the soft ground on turf may have been against him.
Quantum Dot will appreciate the extra furlong and Mutawathea should be favourite on the book, after his Newmarket run against Solario winner Kingman, with Hyperion Stakes second Adhwaa the runner-up, and wide-margin maiden scorer Sea The Skies third.
But that was way back in June. Mutawathea hasn’t been seen since and it seems indicative that Richard Hughes swerves this colt in favour of Pool House.
7.40 Kempton (Commission Free 1st Month At Betdaq Novice Stakes) Like Pool House, Red Galileo comes off soft-ground turf, Zumurudah from a soft-surface win at Carlisle and Andy Daandy from the easier AW terrain of Wolverhampton.
That doesn’t make life easy for punters, even with just four runners for this, another two-year-olds contest. Since Andy Dandy’s sire has only ever had four AW winners, I’ll go for a Dubawi (97 winners on man-made surfaces).
Red Galileo and Zumurudah are both Dubawis, but Red Galileo’s form at Newmarket, Newbury and York is more appealing than Zumurudah’s Carlisle conquest though, before we get sniffy, second and third in that seem decent sorts.
The runner-up, beaten nearly four lengths by Zumurudah, has since made all and won clear at Chester, while the third might be forgiven her failure to cope with one of those big Tattersalls Millions fields at Newmarket.
8.10 Kempton (£200 Free Bets At Betdaq Nursery handicap) Every one’s a winner! This is a really hot nursery, worthy of the £10,000 guaranteed prizemoney, with Zampa Manos and Fire Fighting both well drawn for the customary pacemaking roles.
We might see a late Richard Hughes surge from the hold-up horse, Morally Bankrupt, but he’s only a class-5 winner, while Art Wave and Top Tug (second won since) are maiden winners, also at a low level.
Extra Noble, on the other hand, already a scorer on today’s course, was unlucky not to win in class 2 at Doncaster, the ‘moral, beaten only a short head, giving 11lb to the winner.
Previous winners were in third, fourth, fifth and sixth, with Fire Fighting a long way last (‘something must have been amiss’ says the Racing Post form analysis). But, in receipt of 7lb from that one today, Extra Noble looks hot.
8.40 Kempton (Betdaq 1st UK Commission Free Handicap) Another competitive BETDAQ race, with a guaranteed prizemoney boost that’s attracted a field of winners of 40 races.
Only Jazz Master and Reflect have won at Kempton and, apart from Curly Come Home, they also standout as the only winners at the distance.
An easy CD winner early last month, Jazz Master was then outgunned off a 9lb higher mark by Autun, despite receiving 6lb. However, the handicapper must think quite a bit of that race, because he’s raised Jazz Master another 3lb as if that was his best run.
Reflect and Curly Come Home have been most disappointing recently and Glorious Protector was ‘never able to threaten’ over CD last time, though he’d beaten Jazz Master earlier.
What to make of it? We have Glorious Protector returning from a long holiday today but Jazz Master clearly improved since that defeat. Both like to lead, or be in the van, but then so does Fresa, a filly back from an even longer holiday (433 days).
My first thoughts were: stick with the three-year-olds and ditch the high draw. But that still leaves me the same conundrum of Glorious Protector, Jazz Master and Fresa, and turns my eye to a surprise Ryan Moore ride, Rosaceous.
Rosaceous was well outpaced by Big Thunder and Glenard at Ascot in Jiuy but Big Thunder has won four out of five and Glenard, asubsequent class-2 winner, ran a cracker in a top-class Ladbrokes-sponsored handicap back at Ascot.
Rosacecous then attempted a Listed race and – though her third to Big Thunder had been on firm ground – showed her versatility when runner-up at Ffos Las on heavy. I don’t think she should be 9.4, my bet as I write. Far too big.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET (to win 20 points) 7.5pts win RUFOOF (3.45 Newcastle)
BET (to win 20 points) 7pts win ALMARGO and 4pts win (stakes saver) POOL HOUSE (6.10 Kempton)
BET (to win 20 points) 7pts win EXTRA NOBLE and 2.8pts win (stakes saver) TOP TUG (8.10 Kempton)
BET (to win 20 points) 1.30pts win and place ROSACEOUS (8.40 Kempton)
BET 12pts win on each FIGURE OF SPEECH (nap, 4.30 Salisbury) and RED GALILEO (7.40 Kempton), plus DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble the same two with ROSACEOUS (8.40 Kempton)
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