WINNING NAP AND 6.2 BETDAQ PLACE: 28.2 points profit bagged for DAQMAN followers yesterday with the nap QUESTION OF FAITH winning at 5/6 (opened on course 11/8) and a great run from 16/1 shot MEDICEAN BULLET to finish second at Kempton and reward the 3 point place bet at around 6.2 on BETDAQ.
FINDING THE ANGLES FOR AUTUMN WINNERS: How do you spot the autumn winners? Today Daqman discusses some of his secrets of the form book, what to look for, different signposts that help you read between the lines and get the angles, putting the form into perspective.
HOW TO SPOT LATE-SEASON HITS
Autumn Glory In the final month of the Flat season, you’re looking for horses and trainers that do well at this time of year. Check out their past results.
You are particularly searching out for horses that have dropped in the handicap while waiting for the softer ground.
Sprinters are all of a heap and just a few pounds can make a huge difference to their finish. Remember to calculate 3lb for a length in comparing their form.
Collateral form There are two-year-old races galore at this time of year but, of those that are more exposed, you can sometimes tie them together by finding a benchmark horse.
Benchmark horse This is one that has raced consistently without setting the world alight. He may link up to more than one horse in the race you are studying, so giving you comparisons.
Race of winners You can be most confident if you can find a horse that last ran, whether out of the frame or not, in a race containing previous winners.
Form franked If horses behind yours have come out and won since, we say that the form of the race has been franked.
Beat Nothing Well If there is no franking of the form, and the placed horses and also-rans were of little account, we look for the style of the winner.
If he won like a professional, and beat ‘nothing’ well, he is likely to be able to step up in class, though we have no collateral judgment of his ability.
Improvement Whatever race you’re studying, particularly one in which the leading protagonists seem very close on form, you need to identify the Improver.
He or she can probably add a few more pounds to his rating, and improve past the obvious ones at the front of the market.
Lightly raced This applies particularly if he’s lightly raced, well connected (running for a top stable), well bred to go on from his beginnings, or with an in-form stable. Preferably more than one of these key pointers,
Bridesmaid With horses running in the same class that keep on being placed without winning, it could be the case that they don’t want to win or don’t have the finish to win. They’re not going to catch the bouquet.
Nearly Horse Some ‘bridesmaids’ cannot escape from their class, if it is at a fairly high level. They carry on finishing near the action in conditions races without winning but, if they moved to handicaps, they would carry a prohibitive weight.
Make a list of them. They win you money.. How? They’re lays. Oppose them and back the winner for a double whammy.
SALISBURY THE PLACE CHOICE
It will be fun in the mud at Salisbury this afternoon on forecast heavy ground. My instincts are that the favourites in the opening two races haven’t really done enough to justify short priced favouritism and rather than lay them I will look for some each way alternatives in the races. The favourites are taking out so much of the market that surely there is plenty of value elsewhere?
Certainly the BETDAQ place market came up trumps for us last night at Kempton when MEDICEAN BULLET ran a cracker to be second at 16/1 but was paying over 5/1 for a PLACE on BETDAQ !!!
2.00 Salisbury Ace Ventura makes zero appeal at around 1.56. He hails from Roger Varian’s stable and will improve for his Doncaster debut but he hung during the race and was beaten over seven lengths at the line. Add to the fact that the ground is much more testing today and there are surely far too many question marks to be taking such cramped odds?
Red Miracle seemed do equally as well on his debut which was here at Salisbury where he showed promise despite going off a 100/1 shot. He’s a bet to win 20 points on the win market and 10 points on the place market.
2.30 Salisbury Similar story here. Mr Gent looks a little short in the market. He was sixth on debut at Yarmouth and didn’t seem to get home that day so may struggle on more testing ground today.
The Richard Hannon trained Roundhead only beat one home at Ascot but actually ran quite well and will find this easier.
Again, I’m staking to win 20 points on the win market and 10 points on the place – there are still the three places on BETDAQ despite the race being reduced to seven runners at the time of writing.
4.10 Salisbury Just the four runners but it’s a tight market on BETDAQ.
Again I’m sticking with Richard Hannon – he runs Almoreb here who should relish the ground.
He won his maiden on soft ground at Newbury and has been in great form this season with a further two wins at Sandown and at Chelmsford where he dead-heated. He’s up a little in trip but that should suit – he was staying on like a rocket over a mile at Chelmsford.
Master Carpenter still looks high in the handicap for me, a bigger danger might come from Ayrad who should appreciate the drop in class.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Win bets to win 20 points, place bets to win 10 points)
BET 1.4pts win and 7.1pts place RED MIRACLE (2.00 Salisbury)
BET 2.8pts win and 9.1pts place ROUNDHEAD (2.30 Salisbury)
BET 12.0pts win (nap) ALMOREB (4.10 Salisbury)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
