8-1 COMINO SCORES FOR DAQMAN: Two winners for Daqman yesterday produced a profit on the day of more than 20 points. They were Comino (WON 8-1) at Thirsk and Fractal (WON 8-11), the nap at Chepstow.
KERRY NATIONAL VALUE MATCH: Today Daqman resumes his challenge to Pricewise of the Racing Post with two bets each in the Kerry National. The scores going into the race are Daqman 101, Pricewise 37.
THE AYR GOLD CUP STATS: First Daqman looks at the stats for Saturday’s Ayr Gold Cup. It’s five times a Scottish ‘No’ vote for favourites and those at a weight and age disadvantage. The final ‘No’ is a value warning.
BE INDEPENDENT IN BIG SCOTS VOTE
What won’t win the Ayr Gold Cup? That’s probably the best starting point as you survey the form in advance of Saturday’s big race in Scotland. Don’t listen to the polls and the pundits: be independent and give your own verdict from these stats..
NO favourite has scored since 1996; in fact, just the one in 35 years, and winners are generally 10-1 plus. But, at the same time, there have been only two winners bigger than 20-1 since 1989.
NO Newmarket stable has won since Frankie Durr’s in 1985 and northern stables are 12-2 up over Lambourn this century.
NO trainer can come near to Dandy Nicholls’ six winners, though Kevin Ryan has been chasing him recently with a trio since 2007.
NO horse over the age of six has won since 1993. Three-year-olds had a winning spree in the 1980s but only one has won since Daring Destiny 20 years ago.
NO winner has carried less than 8st 10lb since 2004 and only three have done so this century.
NO way can you bet at SP with the bookies. They have taken a massive slice of your winnings in the last five years, with Total SP overrounds consecutively of 134 137 136 141 and 138%.
HATS OFF FOR THE KERRY NATIONAL
4.40 Listowel (Kerry National) Young horses win this. I’m talking National Hunt ‘young’, not these headstrong Adonis thoroughbreds of the Flat-racing scene, but maturing types of bigger bone and strong constitution, gladiators aged six to nine, learning their trade, but manned up by battles over fences and a distance of ground.
Some 8 out of 10 Kerry National winners in the decade had already had 10 chases or more. Today’s winner also needs proven ability to win on firmish ground on a sunny day at Listowel.
Top-weight and Tony McCoy’s mount, Alderwood, is unexposed at this trip and twice won 2m 6f hurdles in his youth. But he’s giving away age as well as weight.
Eight out of 10 winners had already won a chase over at least 22 furlongs. So the winner, ticking off the stats boxes, should come from Golden Wonder, Klepht, Quantitativeeasing, Usuel Smurfer, Balnaslow, Jacksons Lady and Heaney.
Of these, Quantitativeeasing hasn’t won since December, 2011, and the stable form of both Tom Taaffe’s Heaney and ‘Shark’ Hanlon’s Usuel Smurfer worries me out of giving them my further consideration.
Hanlon has had just the one chase winner in the season so far. His runners in the last two weeks have been starting ‘not wanted’ (very big prices), with just one of them placed. He’s had eight straight losers at this Listowel week so far, 16 consecutive in all.
Taaffe’s yard is very quiet these days and he’s had only four chase winners a season for the last two, just three decent wins in two years, all with Argocat. Heaney has been absent 137 days. Taaffe hasn’t scored in 214 days.
When Pass The Hat won at Killarney recently, Arthur Moore was hopeful that that would sneak him into today’s weights. It has and Arthur has continued in form with three in a row placed in September.
Shanpallas was behind that day and Balnaslow pulled up, a 6-1 shot. Balnaslow earned that short price from his third in the Galway Plate and today’s trip and ground look ideal but he’s just a pound better with Burn And Turn, who was second (Quantitativeeasing in rear).
Irish Grand National runner-up Golden Wonder was only sixth that day but is the one sure stayer in the field, and a hurdles winner on firm ground, pulling double.
Klepht’s mark has been kept down by running him in hurdles. Winner of last year’s Guinness Chase at Punchestown, this is his first chase over a distance since the Galway Plate of 2013.
Third in the Plate that day on soft ground was Jacksonslady, who came back to winning form at the meeting this season on a sound surface. The mare gets that again today.
My six against the field then are Balnaslow, Burn And Turn, Golden Wonder, Jacksonslady, Klepht and Pass The Hat.
Jacksonslady was well down the field in this last year and Burn And Turn’s wins are few and far between; she is 11lb higher than for the last one. Balnaslow is very ‘in and out’, pulling up either side of his Galway third.
Eight out of 10 winners of this have been aged six to eight, so I’ll take Golden Wonder (11.0 on BETDAQ this morning) and Pass The Hat at 12.0 at the time of writing, and I’ll back them as Bull’s-Eye Bets to win 50 points. Tony McCoy may galvanise Alderwood into a place.
DAQMAN’S KERRY NATIONAL 1-2-3: Pass The Hat 1, Alderwood 2, Golden Wonder 3
BEVERLEY: Course winners over the minimum at Beverley are always worth following – it’s such a stiff five – so my choice for the outsider on the Yorkshire track today is Banovallum, 13.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Banovallum (4.20 race) is the Roman name for the Lincolnshire town of Horncastle and for 400 years they used to say ‘Horncastle for horses’; not thoroughbreds, but those being sold at the biggest working-horse fair in Europe.
I hope Mick Easterby has Banovallum ready and he can work for me today. If not, he will be out again quickly, within 10 days, and will be a winner waiting to happen.
There’s also success waiting for Classic Image (5.25), whose stable won the big sprint in France at the weekend with Mirza.
Classic Image is highly regarded, and was made favourite on her debut, but she ran green on soft ground and could be a different proposition today, with the race under her belt and the going on the firm side of good: 6.0 says she’s fancied.
SANDOWN: Richard Hannon seems to have cornered the main prize at Sandown (3.40), dropping Producer and Emell down from Group contests to this Listed level.
There’s very little between them on their Goodwood meeting in August, when Emell was the ‘moral’, beaten a length and a half giving 6lb to Bow Creek in the Celebration Mile, with Producer fourth. Yet Emell is 7.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
There’s also not much between Zora Seas and Ramshackle on form at Ffos Las last month and the mile handicap (4.15) looks tailor-made for Perfect Persuasion, who plummets two grades for this, after a good run in a big-field class 2 at York under a claimer.
Ryan Moore, back on board today, was unlucky with her at Leicester when she was a narrowly beaten odds-on favourite after losing both front shoes during the race.
YARMOUTH Yarmouth has a Listed, too (3.25). Fillies only; invariably won by three-year-olds, and they have the market lead with Water Hole and Hadaatha, who is reported working well but has an absence to overcome.
Albasharah, odds on for a race of this nature in July (saddled slipped) was beaten less than a length in the (Group 2) Lancashire Oaks at Haydock.
Kleo could be better than the bare form but has no supporters at 19.0 this morning, so this looks between Albasharah and Hadaatha.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win HADAATHA and 4pts win ALBASHARAH (3.25 Yarmouth)
BET 3.3pts win EMELL and 2pts win (stakes saver) PRODUCER (3.40 Sandown)
BET 11pts win (nap) PERFECT PERSUASION (4.15 Sandown)
BET 1.8pts win and place BANOVALLUM (4.20 Beverley)
BULL’S-EYE BETS: 5pts win GOLDEN WONDER and 4.5pts win PASS THE HAT (4.40 Listowel)
BET 4pts win CLASSIC IMAGE (5.25 Beverley)
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